2011年9月30日星期五

Martin Armstrong: Who Will Collapse First?

With continued turmoil in global markets, today King World News 
interviewed internationally followed Martin Armstrong, Founder and Former
Head of Princeton Economics International, Ltd.. 
Armstrong’s firm rose to be perhaps the largest
multinational corporate advisor in the world and by the 1997
Asian Currency Crisis, Armstrong was invited by China and
he flew to Beijing to advise the Central Bank.  
Many people don’t realize that Congress
went to Martin Armstrong 
for help as the fires were burning
during the financial collapse of 2008.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlhttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlhttp://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.htmlshapeimage_24_link_1



When asked what Congress wanted, Armstrong replied, “One question (From Congress) was, ‘How could everything collapse overnight like that?’  The difference was very simple, the mortgage-backed securities that they were using, they rated them AAA.  That’s why S&P and so on are being investigated because once they were rated AAA, then you could post them in the repurchase agreement market, the repo market. 

In the repo market you post securities, the next day you get cash for them and the next day you have to pay back the cash.  So it’s a 24 hour market.  Now if you have these time bombs that are rated AAA, and it has to be AAA paper to go into the repo market, and it blows up, you have 24 hours to come up with the cash.

Whereas, if they were not AAA, if they were even AA and they blew up, then they are just sitting on a company’s books.  That has to be reported on a quarterly basis and they have the time to work it out, take charge offs, whatever.  Lehman would have survived.  Most of the other companies would have survived....

“This is what a lot of people didn’t understand.  That is why a lot of people (Congressmen) ended up coming to me because I understand these markets, how they were created, I was there when they were created.”

When asked which currency will collapse first, Armstrong responded, “Americans tend to focus really just on the United States.  The United States is, among the Western countries, it’s actually in the best shape.  Europe is going to largely collapse first.  What you have to understand with the dollar is that the dollar is the reserve currency.  What that means is that about 40% of the interest that we pay goes overseas.

All of the foreign central banks hold US government bonds, not actually physical dollars, but they actually hold bonds as a reserve. So the reserve currency is not something that is going to crack first.  You have to understand that because if the dollar were to be the first thing to collapse, the rest of the world has to go with it.

In Europe, to put it into an American context, imagine if every state had the right to print dollars, it would be total chaos.  That’s what Europe did (by allowing individual country bonds to be issued) and that’s why I warned them that they were going to collapse, but politicians just didn’t want to hear it ten years ago.  They were more interested in creating a euro than they were in creating a (long-term functional) system.

...This is also why the banking system over there is in trouble.  They (European leaders) are going to try to hang on as long as they can.” 

The King World News interview with Martin Armstrong is incredibly powerful.  This was a man who at one time sat atop the financial world and who, to this very day, world leaders still go to for counsel.  Armstrong covered currencies, gold and much, much more.  The KWN interview with Martin Armstrong will be available shortly and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE. 

 
 http://kingworldnews.com

SEPT SILVER EALGE SALES 2ND HIGHEST MONTH IN 2011






SEPT SILVER EALGE SALES 2ND HIGHEST MONTH IN 2011

Looks like the US MINT unloaded another 275,000 silver eagles today. Flying off the shelves. So far in SEPT we have 4 million silver eagles sold:

January 6,422,000

February 3,240,000

March 2,767,000

April 2,819,000

May 3,653,500

June 3,402,000

July 2,968,000

August 3,679,500

September 4,000,500

Total 32,951,500
---------------------------

全球貨幣

莫非 罗伯特·蒙代尔和约翰·纳什 係NWO的成員?
轉載宋鴻兵
“2011诺贝尔奖获得者北京论坛”,罗伯特·蒙代尔和约翰·纳什各自提出了对未来货币的构想。蒙代尔倡导创造一种“全球货币”,并交给全新的国际权威机构管理,以避免各货币区间摩擦不断;纳什则提出了“理想货币”的概念,这种货币以世界市场的价格为基础,最大的特点是可以消除通胀。世界货币启动了!

蒙代尔的世界货币思路,就是成立超主权的世界中央银行,中国和各国必须上交货币主权!老蒙的这一招算狠到家了,只怕各国没这么天真吧[呵呵]

House Seeks to Replace Dollar With Gold Coin

Posted by Cori O'Donnell - Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Republican House members have proposed a bill that would replace the one-dollar bill with a dollar coin, ultimately saving taxpayers money.
David Schweikert (R-AZ),  Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and another House Republican proposed the bill titled the Currency Optimization, Innovation and National Savings (COINS) Act.
The House members say the U.S. would save $184 million a year just by switching to the use of the coin. According to Newsmax.com, “Schweikert said his proposal would save taxpayers billions of dollars over the next few decades by switching to a dollar coin in four years, or as soon as $600 million worth of dollar coins have entered the money supply. A whopping 3 billion paper dollars are shredded every year, and continuing destruction and construction of the paper dollars costs the government too much, he said.”
Utah is already ahead of the game. We told you in a previous article that the state is allowing its citizens to use gold and silver coins as currency. Utah residents are allowed to store their gold and silver in a vault and use a “debit-like card” to make transactions.
Not everyone is in agreement with this proposal. Massachusetts Senators Scott Brown (R) and John Kerry (D) have proposed an opposing bill, the Currency Efficient Act, which they claim is to protect the paper dollar bill.
Brown argues "The one dollar coin is misleading because it costs taxpayers so much more. In fact, we have over $1 billion worth of extra one-dollar coins sitting idle in vaults and that's set to double over the next several years.”
Are Brown and Kerry really that concerned about the paper dollar bill, or is their another motive behind their proposed act?
The Dollar Coin Alliance claims the two senators are trying to protect Crane&Co., a business in their home state of Massachusetts that supplies the paper used to create dollar bills. 
Keeping the dollar bill around will only cost U.S. taxpayers even more money.
"At a time when the government needs to be looking to save every dollar, we can't continue to play the same Washington game of serving narrow special interests with half-measure legislation,” said former Arizona Rep. Jim Kolbe, the honorary chair of the Dollar Coin Alliance.
The Federal Reserve says that a 2008 Harris poll found three fourths of people prefer the $1 note, but with America’s struggling economy a savings of $184 million a year in taxes can go a long way. 

金价受经济乐观情绪提振上涨,未平仓合约减少

2011年 9月 30日 星期五 05:08 BJT

* 德国投票支持增加欧元区救助基金规模,支撑金市

* 贝南克暗示可能采取新的刺激,提振经济乐观情绪

* COMEX期金未平仓合约触及近两年低位

* 市场关注:周五公布的美国个人所得数据

路透纽约/伦敦9月29日电---金价周四小幅走高,受助于德国投票支持增加欧元区救助基金规模将有助于解决债务危机的乐观情绪.

美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席贝南克暗示,如果通胀压力缓解,可能采取新的刺激措施.美国上周初请失业金人士降至五个月低位.

1921GMT,现货金XAU=上涨0.3%,报每盎司1,612.50美元.

美国12月期金GCZ1结算价下跌0.80美元,报每盎司1,617.30美元,回吐早盘涨幅.犹太假期导致成交量低于平常.

纽约期金未平仓合约降至近两年低位.过去八个交易日,未平仓合约减少逾5万口.

"看来开始触底反弹了,"汇丰控股金属分析师James Steel称.

分析师称,黄金和白银价格可能动荡,因对欧洲政策制定者仍缺乏解决债务危机的整体计划的担忧挥之不去.

价格回落以後,亚洲黄金现货需求非常强劲.新加坡和香港金条升水为至少2月以来最高,印度升水为一年最高.

黄金上市交易基金的持仓仍相对强劲.

苏格兰皇家银行分析师在报告中写道,上市交易基金持仓量变动不大意味着核心的黄金持有人不会抛弃重要的避险资产黄金.

黃金真的可對沖風險?

馮觀榮、林建

上星期本欄以近代尋金熱為題,誰知文章見報之後,金價大幅下挫,從每盎斯1800美元狂插至1530美元,然後又大幅反彈至1660美元。跌幅/波幅之大,近期罕見。幸好文章的主旨只是指出黃金與美元兩者間存在着負相關,令其走勢有背馳的傾向,而現代的尋金熱是由弱勢美元催生出來的。

近期「元升金跌」的走勢,卻正好是上文的最佳註腳。原來當金價升至近1900美元時(2011年8月22日),美滙指數(dollar index)大概處於74.5的水平,當金價跌至1620美元,美滙指數升至79.0,兩者背馳的走勢至為明顯。如果說尋金熱是由弱勢美元催生出來的話,那麽尋金熱會否從此退潮,就要視乎美元能否繼續維持強勢了。

金價與股價有何關係

另外,很值得探討的就是要找出金價與股價之間存在着一個什麽樣的關係。【圖】是金價與美股(以道瓊斯指數為代表)近十年的走勢圖。以肉眼觀察兩者的走勢,看不出一個明顯的同步/背馳關係。當然,肉眼觀察不能作準,一切還應看仔細的統計分析。我們首先計算投資於黃金/美股的n天回報率(n由1天至22天),然後計算兩者之間的相關系數,結果見【表1】的首列。

【表1】可見股價與金價之間,存在着一個相當微弱的負相關(大概為-0.05左右,p-value相當大,可視作零相關),而相關度又不太受持有期的長度(n天)所影響。另外,我們又把數據分為前段(2000年1月至2005年12月)及後段(2006年1月至2011年9月),並計算兩段的相關系數,見【表1】的二、三列。計算結果顯示,持有期稍大時,前/後時段的相關系數沒有很大分別。統計數字的共識是:金、股的走勢並沒有什麼顯著的統計關係。

着眼於股市的讀者,可能會對以上的結論感到有點失望:「我的興趣是股價,如果金價跟股價無關,那我為啥要留意金價呢?」這個看法可說是「差之毫釐,謬以千里」。

投資組合風險較低

原來資產配置(asset allocation)之道,正好是要尋找相關系數不高(包括零相關或負相關)的資產類別(asset classes)。根據組合理論(portfolio theory):如果兩種資產的相關系數不高的話,其投資組合(portfolio)的風險比起單一資產的風險要低得多。與股市無關的金市,應該是對沖股票市場風險的上佳工具!

所謂資產配置之道,對基金投資稍有認識的讀者應該不會感到陌生。事實上,很多基金都把資金配置於股票與債券兩種資產之上;其深層的原理,其實就在於股、債之間存在着一個不高的相關系數。既然股、債可以並舉,為什麽金、股不應該齊鳴呢?

金、股應不應該齊鳴,當然不能單從風險的角度去考慮。比起債券,黃金的回報率很不穩定。在「十年黃金變爛銅」的年代(指的是八十、九十年代,見上星期四本欄),黃金處於熊市,投資黃金只能得到負回報;金股齊鳴雖可降低風險,但也同時大幅地拖低回報,可說是得不償失。但如果由2000年開始,我們採用金股齊鳴的策略,其表現又會如何呢?

我們比較以下五個組合的投資表現。這五個組合分別為(A)100%股票,0%黃金;(B)75%股票,25%黃金;(C)50%股票,50%黃金;(D)25%股票,75%黃金;及(E)0%股票,100%黃金。

【表2】給出這五個組合的年回報率及年風險。在這十一多年中,美股表現非常差勁,其年回報率(不包括股息)只有約2%,但投資黃金的年回報率卻有18%之多。所以任何加入黃金的投資組合都比純股票組合有較高的回報。以(C)組合(50%股票,50%黃金)為例,其年回報率為10%。

金股齊鳴旨在對沖

當然,過往的表現不等於將來的表現。以上的回報數字其實是一個很牛的金市與一個沒有升幅的股市所合成的產物;如果牛/熊易位,增加黃金的投資比例只會拖低回報,金股齊鳴便不值得推薦。

其實金股齊鳴的真正功用,不是利用來增加回報,而是在於對沖風險。由【表2】可見:股市風險為21%,金市風險為19%,但金股各半的組合(C),其風險可壓縮至13.5%。如果投資者看好金市前景的話,那麼在投資股票之餘,加進少許黃金的投資,可不失為一個對沖風險的方法。但如果投資者認為黃金牛市已死,那就當然要滴金不沾了。


白銀失對沖賣點

THE LEX COLUMN

對於那些遲了一步參加貴金屬炒作派對的投資者而言,押注有「窮人黃金」之稱的白銀被視為一舉兩得:既能搭上黃金的升市順風車,又能在動盪的市況中令人安寢無憂。然而,白銀投資者大概意料不到,他們晚上會擔心得難以入眠。

長線保值資產出現短期波動不一定有問題,不過,銀價近日如坐過山車般的走勢,卻令人緊張不安。在美國掛牌的安碩白銀基金,是全球最大、供散戶投機白銀的投資工具,該基金受到六個風雨飄搖的交易日洗禮後一度跌約三成,周二才從周一的低位反彈最多一成。 

銀市當前的波動不僅可媲美雷曼兄弟倒閉後的數月,甚至令人憶起三十年前叫人心驚肉跳的情景:亨特兄弟(Hunt Brothers)試圖囤積居奇把價格推高,結果銀市大崩潰。

即使過去一周的市況真如白銀好友寄望,只是大致順暢的升浪出現短暫的調整,但白銀走勢還有另一教人不安的特徵。白銀非但不能發揮對沖作用,甚至開始跟金融資產及工業商品「共同進退」。分析師的解釋是,這是投資者上周爭相沽售流動資產(或對沖基金獲利)的結果;這種講法,有如把白銀與股市一同反彈歸咎於趁低吸納一樣靠不住。

白銀「低」,是相對什麼而言呢?銀價目前已重返相當於金價五十分一的水平,跟二十世紀的平均數相若。部分論者指出,由於白銀相對罕有,其相對價格應該升至六分一左右,那麼,黃金具說服力的基礎價值又應該是多少?

貴金屬之所以吸引,既因為它「並非任何人的負債」,也因為它跟其他資產的走勢各不相干。若失去這些特質,投資者或會不問好醜,棄之後快。

譯自THE LEX COLUMN

2011年9月29日星期四

羅家聰、陸庭龍 講金

http://cablenews.i-cable.com/webapps/program_video/index.php?video_id=118241

羅仔低位1200-1400,2013年 見3000

嘉賓:羅家聰、陸庭龍

NWO Silver Coin


交易員言論 稱世界由高盛統治

 視頻

http://video.sina.com.cn/



英國一名獨立交易員周一在英國廣播公司(BBC)直播新聞節目中,宣稱經濟災難為交易員帶來賺錢良機,又揚言世界“並非由政府統治,而是由(投資銀行)高盛統治”。這番驚人言論令節目主持張口結舌,網民與英美大小傳媒亦議論紛紛,有人質疑他精神有問題,有人讚他敢說“真話”。
  “每晚夢見衰退 等賺大錢”
發表出位言論的拉斯塔尼(Alessio Rastani)自稱具股票及外匯交易經驗,他在節目中預期“巿場已完蛋”,當主持追問有何解決辦法時,他聲稱大部分交易員並不關心要怎樣恢復經濟,“我們的工作是從中賺錢”。他又稱最過去3年內“每晚上?睡覺都會夢見另一次衰退,夢見另一個如同當前的時刻”。
  BBC曾上惡作劇組織當
顯得驚訝的克羅克索爾指拉斯塔尼坦白得令“大家嚇得下巴都掉下來”。她追問衰退對其他人有何意義,拉斯塔尼卻強調,只要有恰當的對應策略,“任何人”都能從災難性的衰退中獲利,就像30年代的大蕭條一樣。他總結說:“經濟危機就像癌症,如果你只會等了又等,想著它消失,它會擴散,而那時處理就太遲了。”他更預言數百萬人的儲蓄將在未來12個月內消失,克羅克索爾此時已啞口無言,另一主持問她會否夢見經濟情況時,她回應說:“我試?不要,那是噩夢。”
這段長約3分鐘的訪問迅速在網上傳播。英美兩地均有輿論對拉斯塔尼的真實身分提出質疑,twitter更有傳言指他是惡化作劇組織“Yes Men”的成員,該組織多次假冒大型商業機構身分,表達針對大財團缺乏社會關懷等問題的關注。 BBC在2004年曾上了該組織的當,一名扮成美國陶氏化工代表的成員當時向BBC宣稱,陶氏化工願對1984年在印度博帕爾洩漏有毒化學品事件作出賠償。有網民找出當年的採訪片段,懷疑拉斯塔尼正是當年搞惡作劇的人。但BBC後來發表聲明,強調沒有證據顯示拉斯塔尼是騙徒。福布斯網站昨找拉斯塔尼求證身分時,他堅稱自己“百分百是個交易員”。
《每日郵報》報導,拉斯塔尼的個人博客充斥自己發表演說的照片,但講述其投資經歷的信息不多,該網頁(LeadingTrader.com)昨天無法登入。他在twitter與facebook帳戶裡對自己描述,則與他接受BBC訪問時的說法一致。

樣樣都買的

呢次期權加按金,金銀又再大跌, 加少少倉

股跌物價貴 「市民交煎」 基本通脹6.3% 重上海嘯前



明報專訊 
美國聯儲局昨日公布的「扭曲操作」政策觸發新一輪環球股災,當港人驚訝股市跌幅之餘,最新公布的8月份基本通脹率已達6.3%,創 2008年金融海嘯後新高,其中租金價格升幅續擴大,政府預期通脹未見頂,未來數月會持續攀升。有學者形容股市大跌令不少市民身家縮水,但食材等必需品卻 仍要「焗買」,「猶如兩面乾煎」。
租金菜價旅遊費升幅擴大
統計處昨公布最新數據,8月整體消費物價按年升5.7%,扣除政府 代繳公屋租金等一次過紓困措施後,基本通脹率按年升6.3%,較7月的5.8%升0.5個百分點,主要受私樓租金、菜價和旅遊費升幅擴大所致;反映基層家 庭生活的甲類物價指數亦由5.9%升至8月的6.3%。
衣、食、住、行消費物價類別指數持續升溫,分別升7.5%、 8%、 8.3%及4.9%,即使回家吃飯,「荷包」亦難「止血」,其中豬肉按年勁升27.4%,鹹水魚也增18.7%。
昨午在北角街市買餸的王先生說,一家四口每餐最少買菜肉各一斤,近月菜價攀升厲害,平均加2元,菜心每斤要10元,豬肉亦由每斤約40元升至54元,幾乎找不到什麼是便宜的。
開檔30年的北角菜檔檔主麗娟亦指今年菜價是歷年新高﹕「以往夏天菜會平一點,天氣變才開始貴,但今年都沒怎麼平過。」其菜源主要來自內地,菜價因人民幣升值,來貨價較上月平均升三成。根據統計處8月數據,食物類別中,新鮮蔬菜升3.9%。
政府:滯後效應 通脹未見頂
其實,6.3%的基本通脹率,是2008年7月金融海嘯前以來新高,亦平了14年前、即97年的水平。但政府發言人指通脹率仍未見頂,原因是較早前國際食品價和私人房屋新訂租約的租金急升的滯後效應,會繼續反映到通脹率上,未來幾個月仍會繼續攀升。
金管局於貨幣與金融穩定情况半年度報告亦做壓力測試,發現舖租和工資各增1%,便會帶動通脹升0.6%,稱幅度絕對不容忽視,預期除食物外,舖租和工資上漲將會成今年通脹壓力主因。
中 文大學經濟系副教授莊太量直言,扣除一次過紓困措施才能真正反映通脹幅度,形容通脹率逾6%已屬危險水平,無收入或基層人士必首當其衝,又不諱言股市下 滑,令不少普羅大眾身家縮水,但食材等必需品卻仍要「焗買」,「猶如兩面乾煎」。莊建議下月出台的施政報告應提供租金津貼予板間房戶,引入更多食品進口 商,以競爭減低食品價格,長遠增加公營房屋供應。
恒生管理學院商學院長蘇偉文分析,美國雙底衰退(double-dip recession)風險增,一旦出現,香港股市和轉口均會受影響,難獨善其身,但本港暫未出現滯脹(經濟停滯、持續通脹)。

2011年9月28日星期三

Swiss Stock Exchange to launch gold currency

Market action at the end of last week confirmed that the US Federal Reserve has disappointed traders; although the Fed's announcement of Operation Twist had been expected by many analysts, the market had been hoping for more quantitative easing. This disappointment, combined with Bernanke’s pessimistic assessment of “significant downside risks” to the US economy, has hurt all asset classes except the US dollar and Treasuries – in particular commodities. On Friday the gold price experienced a sharp setback of up to $101.90, or nearly 6%, to $1,639.20 per troy ounce. However, the Swiss Stock Exchange said it will soon introduce a gold currency that is designed to offer new clearing services to its trade customers.
Fears among investors that the world economy is slipping back into recession have intensified since the middle of last week. The Fed’s Operation Twist is designed to invest another $400 billion in the purchase of long-term Treasury bonds – the same amount is going to be sold in the form of short-maturity government bonds. The Fed´s move is designed to keep long-term US interest rates at low levels. Many market participants do not like the idea that the Fed’s new monetary strategy runs through the end of June 2012. If the Fed does not follow through with additional programs to improve the liquidity in financial markets, further asset sell-offs could be prompted by banks and hedge funds hungry for cash.
This development would lead to deflationary pressures that will probably weigh on equity, commodity and precious metals prices. Although gold has often held up well during deflationary periods, last week´s drastic price crash in the precious metals sector suggests that investors have started to redirect their portfolios to adapt to changing market dynamics. Hedge funds have been heavily involved and highly leveraged in the paper gold and silver markets in the last few months; in order to cover losses and margin calls on other assets, funds have been forced to sell gold and silver positions.
However, the Swiss Stock Exchange has not been deterred from new involvement with the yellow metal. Together with Scoach Switzerland, The Stock Exchange For Structured Products, The Management Has The Plan To Introduce The Listing And Trading Of Products In So-Called XAU Gold Units – which have an exact value of one troy ounce of gold – in October. Gold will act just like a currency: paying the profits of investors from speculative transactions. The same applies if an investor had to pay the bill on losses from transactions in Swiss financial markets – in this case the difference could be offset in the form of gold. Investors who want to make use of the new gold currency must open an account with Swiss financial services provider Six Securities Services. All transactions made through this account will subsequently be calculated in the XAU gold units that work in the same way as any other paper currencies such as the US dollar or the euro.

实物买盘强劲 黄金价格跳涨

金价周二(9月27日)上扬2%,此前美元下跌,且投资者风险意愿被激活,帮助黄金从近30年最大三日跌幅中反弹。
金价上涨,同时股市亦涨逾2%,欧元兑美元也上扬,欧洲政策制定者计划透过增加地区救助资金规模来缓解债务危机,引发市场乐观情绪。原油和小麦价格走高亦扶助黄金买盘。

炒金如何赚钱专家免费指导银行黄金白银TD开户指南银行黄金白银模拟交易软件集金号桌面行情报价工具
不过,交易员表示,过去四个交易日金价仍下跌了9%,周一时保证金比例大幅上调更是加剧了商品基金大面积结清头寸。
Vision Financial Markets金属交易部主管David Meger称:“过去几个交易日来,市场回归了美元走强、黄金走弱的传统局面。随着美元今日明显承压,这推动投资者买入黄金。”
白银一度大涨约9%,至每盎司33.48美元的高点,上日曾跌至10个月低位每盎司26.04美元。现货银最新上涨5.1%,报每盎司32.22美元。
美元兑欧元下跌为黄金提供支撑,因有关欧洲金融稳定机构(EFSF)规模将扩大的传言,尽管欧洲方面称并未敲定该计划。
交易商表示,黄金重新回到100日移动均线约1,640美元上方,此前多数亚洲主要消费国买兴大涨,这令当地黄金溢价升至年初迄今最高水平。
香港和新加坡实货黄金交割溢价升至2月迄今最高水准,本地交易商称散户和工业买家需求均旺盛。
法国农业信贷银行分析师Robin Bhar表示,黄金价格呈现出过去数月以来少有的修正走势,为希望重返市场的买家提供较有利的机会。他称:“我认为金价已经触底反弹。”
瑞银周一表示,亚洲实物买盘强劲,特别是第一大消费国印度。瑞银称:“实际上,当前的实物需求不仅是不错,而且是非常强劲。”
黄金支持的上市交易基金(ETF)周一未显示不利迹象。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)SPDR Gold Trust持仓量减少约5-1/2吨,但本月迄今仍增加1.2%。
按百分比计算,多数大型基金在9月表现仍为正值,其中iShares Gold Trust和Swiss Gold基金各自上涨0.5%。

2011年9月27日星期二

楣賊劫金舖6金條5條假





《新民晚報》報道,一名男性劫匪上周六晚上8時許,進入上海金山亭林鎮一間名為「香港中國黃金」的金舖(圖)內進行打劫,他將櫃台玻璃砸碎,並搶走6根「金條」。



然而當警方抵達現場調查時發現,被竊的6根「金條」中僅有1根是真貨,其餘全是商家為了防盜而特製的高仿樣品。至於那根被劫的真金條,金舖的負 責人則透露,其淨重50克,按市價折算約2萬元人民幣。有店員指出,當時該名劫匪曾手舉一把長約20厘米的槍步入店內,並喝令店員「別動」,但據目擊者表 示,劫匪手持的是一種農用土槍,只能嚇人,卻不能傷人。目前警方已經將金舖周圍拉起警戒線,並全力追捕該男劫匪。

內地投資者買金抗通脹

國際黃金、白銀價格近期大幅波動,不過由於內地缺乏投資渠道,買金熱情仍不減,一些市民對金價下跌更感興奮,更出現搶購金條熱潮。
據《廣州日報》報道,由於看好未來黃金價格走勢,在國慶節前夕到各大商場「抄底」搶購金條的市民數量大增。
報道稱,廣東粵寶公司的黃金超市中,很多人大清早已趕來購買金條,上午10時30分後,還排起了長隊。一位投資者當場購買價值70多萬元人民幣,共計2000克的金條。購買兩百克、三百克金條的投資者亦比比皆是,短短半日下來,交易總量已接近10千克。
在另一間在東山百貨商場,購金者亦人頭攢動,還沒有到中午時間,10克、50克的小規格金條已經售罄。一位中年投資者林大姐:「怕不怕金價繼續下跌?」她興奮地答:「當然不怕。全世界都在通貨膨脹,黃金怎麼都會走高的。再說,不買黃金,難道買股票買房子呀?」

畢老林 投資者日記 2011年9月27日

黃金牛市玩完?







9月26日,周一。時間過得真快,剛吃完月餅,大廈lobby燈籠未卸彩帶未落,重陽轉眼又至;夜歸的我,在晚空中嗅到的秋意愈來愈濃,這才想到,2011年尚餘三個月便曲終。


石林兄在其大作中言道,上星期下的那場豪雨,恍如金銀二市寫照,一雨成秋。聽落肅殺,諗落滄涼,惟不妨這樣想,專家話齋,溝上不溝落寧買當頭起,9月初之前,金價百美元百美元咁升,試問又有多少人「溝上不溝落」?金價近日百美元百美元咁跌,加上芝加哥、上海期貨交易所插多兩腳,大幅提高合約保證金,投資者不嚇個半死已難能可貴,哪來的膽量低吸?升不敢追跌不敢買,溝上也好溝落也罷,豈非得個講字?


以當前市況而論,?茄殊少做少錯,也許是最明智的抉擇。然而,不是老畢替黃金說好話,上周金價跌勢雖急,但從黃金十年牛市曆程看,剛出現的大挫絕非不正常,類似的整固,過去十年每年總會發生一次。


看完幫幫忙點點左來支持我的工作,以維持收費報紙的內容
調整年年有
金價於2001年見底,從2002至2010年,黃金在上升過程中必有調整,每次回落,至少一試40周(200天)移動平均線,頂至底跌幅平均15.6%【表】 。


從此表可見,金價十年牛市每年peak to trough調整幅度,由最小的7.5%(2007年)至最大的33.9%(2008年)不等;金價近期不再獨善其身,與股彙商品一起遭「洗倉」,盎斯價從9月初高於1900美元,回落至執筆時約1600美元,跌幅一成半,個勢確實勁,卻不能算「離譜」。如果你像老畢一樣,不信政府會容許經濟自然調節,從波動中尋找均衡,必定一而再地以五個蓋?十個煲,不斷積壓風險制造新的危機,那麼便大有理由相信金價將一如過去十年,經過整固後有力更上層樓。換句話說,千九美元也許是今年高位,惟日後回望,那不過是一個階段性的「頂」。


講開五個蓋?十個煲,市場盛傳歐洲准備推出兩招,借以恢複投資者信心,一為大舉重建區內銀行資本,二為通過「杠杆操作」,以倍數擴充歐洲金融穩定設施(EFSF)規模。


德國財政部對擴大EFSF已作出否認,但歐羅區局勢發展「日新月異」,一切可能性皆不能排除。然則,這個新方案葫蘆里賣的是什麼藥?


EFSF現有規模4400億歐羅,且尚待成員國全體通過(德國聯邦議會本周四將就此進行投票,過關機會甚高,惟總理默克爾極可能得依靠反對黨支持;如此一來,德國提前大選,政局亂上加亂勢所難免)。經濟學家估計,EFSF這個「救市基金」,要發揮穩定債市、注資銀行、提供信貸諸般角色,規模須大幅擴充至2萬億歐羅以上。試想,基金規模4400億歐羅,芬蘭尚且堅持必須有足夠抵押品才參與,荷蘭則揚言全民公決,德國人民和政客同樣大有保留,EFSF規模一下子擴大四倍,對挽救「窮親戚」早就滿腹怨言的歐羅區「富國」有何反應,不問可知。


傳聞中歐盟官員正在討論的擴充計劃涉及「杠杆」(leverage),擴大後的救市基金,一個特定比率將由EFSF(成員國納稅人)自負盈虧,餘額由歐洲央行以貸款形式提供。舉例說,以4400億歐羅(EFSF原規模)為准,此數(最高虧損額)若占基金二成(五分一),基金總規模便相當於EFSF出資額的五倍,即做五倍杠杆。以4400億歐羅計算,有歐洲央行參與的EFSF,「彈藥」(fire power)理論上多達2.2萬億歐羅(4400億x 5 = 22000億)。


這個如意算盤若打得響,以意大利、西班牙兩只「大歐豬」2012至2015年底合共只須發債1.2萬億歐羅衡量,EFSF非但有能力援助意西兩國,同時可滿足銀行增資需要。


拖歐央行落水
然而,供過樓的人都知,畀三成首期按樓價七成,銀行以為好穩陣,結果一個大浪?埋?,負資產滿街,貸方傷入肉。班政客想拖歐洲央行落水,一來此舉可能違反馬城條約不容歐洲央行替成員國財政預算融資的規定,二來評級機構標准普爾已經張聲,表明以杠杆形式擴大EFSF,可能令救市基金喪/AA評級。大費周章最終得不償失,試問如何恢複投資者信心?



王SIR-26-9-2011 倫敦黃金交易所賣盤?

倫敦黃金交易所賣盤? 






1600買金可第一注! 金銀加孖展,是否巧合?



金銀大瀉..溫故知新 羅仔拼圖估銀市 6月9-6月10

人言報: 羅仔拼圖估銀市 (兩篇:6月9-6月10)

 

2011年6月9日
財經DNA

銀牛就此玩完?

友人送來拼圖一幀,指目前銀價如1980年2月時般,牛市已玩完,熊一都過了,而目前正處熊二,再升都是反彈,並最終於下月初段大冧之哉,跌至約25元【上圖】。
早輪有指金價今年4至6月間牛市告終,目前尚且還未兌現,今這拼圖比例不對,在下固然一如既往,本着疑心,自拼一次。一拼之下,果然走樣,失準多年【下圖】。
如斯拼圖,你收貨嗎?收檔好了。篇幅所限,今賣關子,下回搞幅較像樣的。有數據而心急之士不妨先行一試,明天對答案。


2011年6月10日
財經DNA

銀牛未有耐玩完!

如果銀價不似31年前,那似幾多年前?答案是37年。將昨天拼圖紅段左移六年,壓縮比例,即得今圖【圖1】。放大來看【圖2】,橫看豎看也像樣過昨天的那幅吧。
果如是者,那目前狀況便相當於1974年的第一次石油危機後段。然這倒也合理,試想,印了這麼多銀紙,通脹還不過是三、四個百分點,就此見頂?講笑搵第二樣咯。
銀紙如斯過剩、國債如斯龐大,實話實說,實在沒甚信心一個通脹潮可清理這些。要是兩個通脹潮,時間上應差不多是2017年了。





最近中國分析師張庭賓在其網誌上發表,白銀牛市已經終結的言論


另羅家聰最近亦講出白銀回落到25之後,來年亦見50之預測...



2011年9月26日星期一

倫敦金屬交易所或將被收購

http://finance.sina.com.hk/

轉載

 

新浪財經訊 香港時間9月26日上午消息,據外電報道,創立有134年歷史的倫敦金屬交易所(LME)可能將成為最新一家被收購的互助式交易所,因為該交易所創紀錄的交易量吸引了多位潛在買家。
倫敦金屬交易所在9月23日表示已收到數位潛在買家的收購意向。該交易所占全球金屬期貨交易總量高達80%。過去十年間,受中國等新興國家的強勁需求影 響,金屬價格已上漲兩倍以上。倫敦金屬交易所去年的交易規模達到11.6萬億美元,遠遠超過1999年時的2.5億美元,這也反映出金屬價格的不斷上漲和 市場對原材料的投資興趣漸長。

 

石林 金銀兩市 一雨成秋

石林

Screamed Liquidation——尖叫的清算,外國評論者用這個詞語來形容上周金融市場的市況。該周美股下跌6.41%,再試今年最低水平;CRB商品期貨指數下跌8.40%,再創今年新低。黃金則跌8.41%,表現變為遜於美國30年期債券,金價對該債價的比率從較早前的歷來高峰的13.41急促地下降到11.51。白銀更出現23.57%的巨大跌幅,回復到今年年初時的價位水平。

現在點算一下總得失,今年到目前為止,30年債價晉升冠軍,升幅為18.22%;黃金居第二,升幅仍有16.93%。今年一度十分耀眼的白銀被打回原形,現只剩下0.46%的升幅。餘則乏善足陳,美元依然錄得0.67%的跌幅,美股跌幅為6.96%,CRB指數跌幅更為9.29%。至於非美元(組成美滙指數的權重外幣)至今仍錄得0.81%的升幅。 

不妨用「一雨成秋」來描述最近天氣乃至金融市場的變化。上周本港經歷一場短暫「黃雨」,秋意突現。而聯邦儲備局推出OT(Operation Twist,扭曲操作),取代不少人期望的QE(量化寬鬆),則令全球市場登時變色。

長短債息比率滾落

石林雖然是個黃金牛市未完派,但一向從心裏不喜歡高昂的金價,且在今年6月間已提到聯儲局將無「正式的」QE3推出。故此不擬評論OT和QE兩者的孰優孰劣的問題,但應承認事前對市場就此而產生的失望情緒估計不足。

其實所謂OT,本質上是屬於再膨脹政策的一種,亦可算是「隱含的QE3」,操作上是聯儲局在維持現有資產負債表規模的前提下,將到期資金投資於年期較長的國債,從而壓低孳息率曲線的長端。這對金價來說是無礙於長線,但有礙於短期,因為它扭曲了市場對通脹正常的和合理的預期。

聯儲局的OT操作實際上早在正式宣布前已施行,美長債息對短債息的比率已從高峰滾落。例如30年債息對1年債息的比率,從8月的高峰39.33滾落到上周的28.90;10年債息對2年債息的比率,則從本月中的高峰11.56滾落到上周的8.00。一般而言,金價變動是與上述比率曲線變化大致同向,現時兩者同向下急墜。

此外,市場因無QE3,通縮心態加強並令美元變成獨好;另一方面,經濟二次探底的憂慮同告加深,這些也都是金銀價格回跌的重要原因。

市勢還會反覆下試

形勢變化使熊方在金銀兩市佔了上風,金市行情亦大致如上期說的典型熊方看法的模式發展。上周金價止步於1827元(美元.下同),大規模清算發生,1762元至1703元的重要支持位相繼失守,直插到1629元後才微彈到1657.2元收市。

金市經此一猛跌,技術上使1703元至1720元地帶之上的價位區域成為一個頭部,同時使稍後的反彈受制於這個地帶。市勢還會進一步下試,較有可能的低位支持區是在1540元至1560元的水平。至於短期,或會反彈到1682元附近而難重越1700元關口;但因短期跌幅頗大,故亦估計暫不致低於1608元。另外,目前圖表形態並非是典型雙頭走勢(時間間隔過短),故對金價跌至1484元的估計個人有所保留。

至於銀價上周最低插落至29.8元,這使個人早前基於「A-B-C調整的C不低A」的分析前提受到破壞。

銀市走勢實際也在變劣,回試2008年高位21.3元水平也並非沒有可能,但中短期相信不致低於26.35元,37元成為巨大的回升阻力;短期估計在29.4元至32.3元之間上落。金銀兩市潛在利好因素是業者淨沽倉量顯降。

目前金市究竟是像1979年,還是像2008年,此問題仍在爭議。個人則抱牛市未完的態度,因貨幣與當局仍不可信。

2011年9月25日星期日

花開花落自有時

市況難測,隨機應變

 

  現時各國仍只顧處理自己的經濟問題,難以寄望同心協力去防止危機進一步惡化。這種只顧自己利益及自我保護的心態,短期內亦難望改變。最終,困境只會一拖再拖,唯有到自己亦深受牽連而感同身受,所謂「同體大悲」時,或許才會願意從整體利益出發,施以援手共同解困,但屆時恐怕危機已深化至難以收拾的地步。目前更棘手的是,由於經濟問題往往牽涉社會及政治考慮,改善經濟措施最終能否跨越有關障礙仍是未知之數。


  預料未來一段頗長的時間,市場仍會反覆波動,面對這變幻「難測」的市況,投資者惟有隨機「應變」,力避進退失據。在這種情況下,投資已變身為難於掌握的冒險遊戲,但若轉念一想,與其耗費大量時間、金錢及精神在市場上不斷艱苦作戰,倒不如暫且休養生息、靜待再戰時機。

 

逆增上緣,轉危為機

 

  在牛氣衝天的時候,時間就是金錢,但在這動盪不安的時勢,我們也可以嘗試改變投資策略,善用自己的時間和精神去作另類投資。我們可多投放資源在可以掌控的事情上,如自己的身體及精神健康、家人及朋友關係等,這些都是不可以用金錢來衡量,但又是我們最容易忽略的瑰寶。這樣我們就可以主動地轉危為機,即佛法所說的「逆增上緣」。


  花開花落自有時,經濟亦逃不過盛衰循環的過程。只要我們能看破得失的空性(即隨緣變化的性質),不執著,做到「得亦不喜,失亦不憂」,便能達到得失也自在的心境。

  同樣地,面對金融危機帶來的種種經濟損失及身心折騰,我們都可依循聖嚴法師的教導︰「面對它,接受它,處理它,放下它」。最後,願與大家分享無門慧開禪師的一首詩︰「春有百花秋有月,夏有涼風冬有雪,若無閒事掛心頭,便是人間好時節」,共勉之。

金價避不了險 兩天瀉9% 專家:調整未完 只宜低吸

http://www.mpfinance.com/


【明報專訊】歐債危機升溫及美債被降級,資金一度蜂擁走入黃金及白銀避 險。但當美元一枝箭般上升時,原來貴金屬也避不了險。紐約期金上周五跌5.9%,創近5年來最大單日跌幅,兩天大跌9%,跌幅是1983年以來最大。到底 黃金能否繼續發揮避險功能,專家的說法紛紜,但即使想買,只宜分階段或候低吸納。
紐約商品交易所 的12月期金,上周整周急跌9.6%,期銀更狂瀉26.3%(圖)。美元大升,早前走入黃金的資金爭相逃出,紐約12月期金周五大跌101.9美元或 5.9%,收報每盎司1639.8美元,創自2006年以來最大的單日跌幅。期銀方面,紐約12月期銀上周五跌17.7%,收報30.101美元,創下有 史以來最大單日跌幅。

銀價單日跌17.7% 史上最傷
雖說過去一周金價跌幅破多年紀錄,但在100天線初步有支持,而且由09年初以來的大升市之中,金價跌至150天線總能回升(圖),目前仍高於150天線的1578美元,未能斷言黃金牛市已死。

羅家聰:金價1600美元以下可吸

年初已唱淡港股的交通銀行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰,近期獨愛黃金,他昨天接受本報記者訪問時表示,金價近日急跌,相信只是「牛市中調整」,主要受美匯指數抽升影響,料或需再調整多1個月,並下試每盎司1400至1600美元,建議可於此區間收集。
羅家聰看好金價前景,料明年勢升穿2000美元,他指環球央行自金融海嘯後釋出大量流動性,巨大的通脹壓力已經形成。至於銀價走勢,他認為銀價短期或下試25至30美元,並可低吸,一年上望50美元。
同樣看好黃金的中大全球政治經濟社會科學碩士課程兼任講師黃元山表示,金價回調,與市場憧憬美國推出新一輪的量化寬鬆「落空」有關,但相信歐債問題難以解決,局勢最終令央行再大舉開動印鈔機,指黃金仍有其保值價值。

陸庭龍:抗通脹主題已失效

黃元山本月初接受本報專訪時曾表示,理想的組合有約10%應為黃金,他昨天重申此看法,並認為現可開始分階段收集。
早年愛儲黃金的恒生銀行(0011)私人銀行及信託服務主管陸庭龍,近期已改變看法,他昨天說黃金已累積大量升幅,市場擔心歐美將陷雙底衰退,商品價格大幅下跌,黃金抗通脹的主題將不復存在,不排除金價或失守1500美元,投資者不宜撈貨。

交易所加孖展 炒家狠沽套現 黃金突失寵兩日瀉 9%

 不要借貸,不要抄賣,只用閒錢

 踏石過河...有幾多眾生可明當中意義

 要買就買實物....其它方式持有金銀都只係紙上富貴....




股市大瀉,引發投資者被追收孖展,將手上黃金套現遂成為最方便的做法。 新華社
【本報綜合報道】全球股市上周大瀉,投資者接「奪命孖展 Call」的情況比比皆是,有指對冲基金大手沽出手上黃金套現平孖展,觸發金價勁跌。貴金屬市場禍不單行,芝加哥商品期貨交易所在上周五,突然宣佈調高黃 金及白銀的期貨孖展,令金銀價格跌勢加劇。消息公佈後,期金單日勁跌逾 100美元至每盎斯 1639.8美元,兩日內累積跌幅達 9.3%,創逾 28年來最大兩日跌幅。期銀跌得更誇張,單日跌幅昨已近 18%,創 32年最大跌幅。
全球股市上周蒸發逾 3.4億美元資產,股價急挫,引發投資者被追收孖展,將手上的黃金套現遂成為最方便的做法,亦拖累金價狠跌。資產管理公司 Pension Partners投資總監 Michael Gayed表示,在環球性追孖展的情況下,黃金成為了最佳的套現資產。


銀價今年升幅蒸發

黃金突然失寵, RBC Global Futures貴金屬策略師 George Gero指出,部份對冲基金被迫沽出黃金以支付孖展,而其他投資者眼見金價扭轉升勢,亦紛紛出售黃金鎖定利潤。他續稱,有些歐洲國家的央行似乎正在出售黃 金,以增加現金流應付動盪市況,也是令黃金沽壓沉重的原因。
此外,芝加哥期貨商品交易所( CME)上周五宣佈,將期金的基本按金調高 21%,至每張合約 11475美元;補倉按金則由 7000美元,調高至 8500美元。另外, CME亦同時將期銀基本按金及補倉按金調高 16%,分別至 24975美元及 1.85萬美元。
事實上,由於白銀有工業用途,擔心歐美國家經濟陷入雙底衰退,加上上海黃金交易所日前宣佈擴闊期銀合約的上下限價,令期銀跌勢更為誇張。現貨銀今年的升勢已完全蒸發,期銀兩日內累跌逾 25%,跌至每盎斯 30.101美元。

分析料屬短期調整

金價在過去 10年勁升 5倍,單就今年而言,其升幅亦有 16%。現貨金在上月創下每盎斯 1900.23美元的歷史新高,由歷史高位至上周五收報 1656.8美元,跌幅已有逾 12%。投資者現時最擔心,金價的升勢是否已經扭轉過來。
巴克萊資本駐紐約分析師 Suki Cooper則對金價仍有信心,「我們認為金價只是暫時出現調整,與 08年的情況類近。」當年金融海嘯席捲全球,黃金價格在 10月大跌 18%,但由於資金需要避險,令金價在之後兩個月大幅反彈升 23%。

2011年9月24日星期六

You can't Print Physical Metal

http://silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Word on the street is that the negative feedback loop is full gear. I cant understand why they just dont start covering their shorts and get this over with already, days like today are not helping them.

The big argument of the day was this was a liquidation events. For the rooks, this means that a hedge fund, got smoked in another asset class, had his margin call because of the loss, and now turned to the only other asset that is till positive and sells it, very very quickly.

Today's event, in my opinion may have been both. I am still waiting for the data, but it looks like in the COMEX their was an inordinate amount of SHORTING. Not SELLING of Long Positions. So for those of you in manipulation denial, you are WRONG.

Silver was already liquidated in May via 5 margin hikes. This was already done.

Now the argument is- was the GOLD trade liquidated? More likely than silver, 100%. This is where people are getting very very confused. Add the fact in that a rumored Margin Hike was in, and you have the Blythe Green light go to pound this thing down 27% in 2 days with relentless SHORT SELLING. NOT SELLING. Clearly a HUGE difference. FIND ME ANOTHER COMMODITY THAT LOST EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE TO 27% in 2 days.

There are no weak hands left in silver. No one has the necessity to sell it. Again, this already happened in May. The leaves were already shaken.

This brings me full circle to the negative feedback loop created by the same people who short it. The lower silver goes, the more PHYSICAL people are buying. Thus, get ready for more and more and more of this. Down to $25, up to $40, back down to $38, up to $50, back down to $42, up to $75, back down to $45. And each time its gets smoked by 25% in 2 days it will have these three things in common:

a. The majority of the selling happens at 3 am EST when the LBMA opens, which has ZERO liquidity.
b. This selling happens in a COMEX expiration week.
c. The Morgue owned CME hikes margins.

But what happens when on these so called shake outs, they are actually making it easier for China, India, Russia ETC and the rest of the world to buy the fucking dip (physical)?

Just got off the phone with my dealer today, and two others now. They had their busiest days in VOLUME and SALES ever recorded. Usually they say down days like this are dead since everyone is scared.


一個自助服務台售賣頸部落戶北京,中國黃金

 阿爺要藏金於民.......
 為何香港無呢的好野?

視頻:
http://newscontent.cctv.com/news.jsp?fileId=117759


中國首台自助黃金售賣機正式在北京王府井亮相,國內消費者本週日或就能體驗這種新奇的銷售模式。



據悉,自助黃金售賣機是北京農商行與工美金業(北京)商貿有限公司擬合作開展的一種自助消費支付業務。首台機器於昨日在北京王府井工美大廈正式投入使用,工作人員在現場進行了試售,並成功購得自助黃金售賣機“吐出”的第一根金條。
現場圖片顯示,這台差不多一名成人高度的機器,在外形上與一般自動商品售貨機並無太大區別,金黃色的外表顯得十分耀眼。在這台自助黃金售賣機的正面上方裝有一塊觸摸式產品展示屏,屏幕上顯示有不同產品描述和價格,價格根據實時黃金產品報價每10分鐘更新一次,消​​費者可以自助挑選自己想要的黃金產品。
自助黃金售賣機項目方表示,每台販賣機放置320塊、10款不同的24k金幣或金條產品,其中,最大購買金條規格為2.5公斤,大約價值人民幣100萬。據了解,這款自助售賣機可以識別100元、50元現金,但不設找零。此外,消費者可以刷卡購買。
據悉,整個黃金售賣系統與央行清算中心聯通,銀聯對其交易規模不設上限。而為防範風險,自助售賣機只在有人值守的場所,如黃金售賣商場、高級私人會所、北京農商行營業大廳布放。
不過,關於消費者最關心的“與傳統黃金購買渠道相比,有沒有價格優勢”的問題,由於尚未正式開售目前尚不得而知,項目方也未給出具體說明。

CME Group Raises Comex Gold Margins By 21.5%, Silver Margins By 15.6%

又係火上加油.............你好野

(Kitco News) - The CME Group is raising the margins needed to trade Comex gold and silver futures are being increased by 21.5% and 15.6%, respectively, and the change will take effect after the close of business on Monday, the exchange said late Friday in a press release.
The exchange is also raising copper futures margins by 17.6%.
The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed – also known as performance bonds – to trade gold, silver and copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange comes as prices for the metals plunged during the past two days as part of a sell off in financial markets in general. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex.
The CME Group raised margins in other markets on Thursday and on Friday it also announced higher margins for long-term U.S. Treasury bond futures.
The changes are as follows:
Comex 100 ounce gold futures and 100-oz gold trade at settlement
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $9,450 $7,000 $11,475 $8,500
Hedger/Member $7,000 $7,000   $8,500 $8,500  
Comex MiNY Gold Futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $4,725 $3,500   $5,738   $4,250
Hedger/Member $3,500 $3,500 $4,250 $4,250
10 oz Troy Gold Futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $945 $700 $1,148   $850
Hedger/Member $700 $700 $850 $850
Comex 5000 silver futures and silver futures trade at settlement
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $21,600 $16,000 $24,975 $18,500
Hedger/Member $16,000 $16,000 $18,500 $18,500
Comex MiNY silver futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $10,800 $8,000 $12,488 $9,250
Hedger/Member $8,000 $8,000 $9,250 $9,250
E-Mini silver futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $4,230 $3,200 $4,995   $3,700  
Hedger/Member $3,200 $3,200 $3,700   $3,700  
Comex copper futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
Speculator $5,738 $4,250 $6,750 $5,000
Hedger/Member $4,250 $4,250 $5,000 $5,000
E-Mini copper futures
Trader Type Current Initial
Margin
Current
Maintenance
New
Initial
New
Maintenance
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By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Sprott Money Temporarily Runs Out of Physical Silver

白銀大減價..........多多貨都唔夠賣.........

交易商報告兩天內白銀現貨已被一搶而空,最大一單500萬美元!

http://kingworldnews.com/


With gold and silver prices plunging, King World News sources are reporting massive physical demand.  One example is Sprott Money, which completely ran out of physical silver.  Larisa Sprott, President of Sprott Money told KWN, “It’s been pretty wild, especially the last three or four days because of the price drop.  People are trading in their paper money for gold and silver, but we are seeing more purchases of silver net.  In fact the buying has been really skewed in favor of silver, there is tremendous demand.”


Larisa Sprott continues:


“We have completely run out of physical silver, so we are temporarily out of stock.  You have to remember, Eric, that like Dubai, we only sell product that is on our shelves, that we have in stock.  We do expect a shipment later today, which will allow us to restock and give us more product to sell. 


Our clients are very savvy, sophisticated and when a price drop of this magnitude occurs, they step in and buy very aggressively.  Right now there is dramatically increased volume what we are seeing is buying across all spectrums in terms of the size of the orders.


To clarify, we may have some client buying a single tube of silver maples, while at the same time, another client is buying $5 million of 100 ounce silver bars or gold maple leafs.  The bottom line here is the drawdown in price is creating a tremendous amount of demand.”

Silver heading for record fall

Silver heading for record fall  09/23/11 Fri
September 23, 2011, 10:54 AM
Silver prices are sliding sharply for a second straight day.
The metal is off $4.71 an ounce, or 13.14%, at $31.13 in closing price.
Friday’s slide would be among the 10 worst percentage falls for the metal in the past 20 years and the second largest nominal decline, after Thursday’s $3.89 drubbing, according to data compiled from FactSet Research.
Silver’s 10 worst percentage declines:
-13.75% 4/20/2006
-13.14% 9/23/2011
-13.05% 6/13/2006
-12.92% 10/02/2008
-11.10% 4/21/2004
-10.74% 10/10/2008
-9.94% 8/15/2008
-9.61% 9/22/2011-9.39% 12/08/2004
-9.18% 4/24/2006
-9.12% 8/05/1993
-Tom Bemis

Hedge Funds Selling Gold!

Posted by Brittany Stepniak - Friday, September 23rd, 2011
Hedge funds have been stocking up on gold to hedge against inflation as the equity markets have faced some tough times over the past two years.
Shockingly, investors were surprised to see gold tumble down a bit after the equities market slipped again yesterday.
September delivery for gold futures dropped to $1,739.20, losing $66.30, or 3.7 percent.
No one seemed to expect this, as gold has been soaring in recent days.
Some traders said that hedge funds were beginning to unwind, or close out, what has been a very popular and profitable trade for the last 18 months as they bet the dollar would fall and that gold would rise. In the last month alone, the euro has fallen nearly 4 percent against the dollar amid worries about the European debt crisis.
Experts suggest the sell-off is happening because investors are building up some of their faith in the dollar after the Fed's stimulus announcement Wednesday and, therefore, turning away from risky assets.
Historically, gold and the dollar trader inversely of each other. Right now, hedge funds want to raise cash, so they're selling some gold.
But, it's not the end of the gold rush just yet...it's just a pullback. Even with today's losses, gold is one of the top best investments of this fiscal year – with 22 percent gains.
Gold strategists recently predicted gold to surge all the way up to $2,300, as it did back in the 1980s (when adjusted for inflation).
Gold, whether through futures contracts or via exchange-traded funds, has been a popular investment among some of the world’s largest hedge funds. One of the best known “gold bugs” is John A. Paulson, whose firm, Paulson & Company, is the biggest shareholder in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF. But many other hedge funds have embraced the metal as well.
After peaking in early August, hedge funds have been reducing their exposure in the gold futures market, according to Mary Ann Bartels, the head of United States technical analysis for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
So, yes gold is experience some pull-back today. Perhaps, this is an ideal time to buy...because gold's going to maintain its popularity for quite some time...
*Indented excerpts from CNBC.

黃金深調符合預期白銀牛市徹底終結

    此刻(9月23日20:00)看到黃金、白銀以及各種商品大幅下跌,中國千萬貴金屬、商品投資者再次中伏,不禁感慨萬千。筆者此前的警告雖然再次被驗證正確性,但是顯然沒能幫助更多的投資者擺脫財富遭洗劫的命運。尤其是在剛剛再次警告,話音幾乎未落之際。

    9月22日(昨天)晚20:00受上海中外企業家聯合會邀請,在斯格威鉑爾曼大酒店發表“中國宏觀趨勢:股市、樓市、匯市和黃金”的演講,指出在中國繼續貨幣緊縮,在歐洲債務危機導致嚴重美元流動性緊縮,美聯儲延後推出量化寬鬆3.0的情況下,中國股市將繼續下跌,樓市進入加速下跌通道,大宗商品將大幅下跌,黃金將深幅回調,至少將跌至每盎司1650一線。

    截止今天20:00,國際金價已經跌至每盎司1690美元,而更慘烈的是白銀,兩天暴跌17.78%。此前,本人在接受某網站採訪時曾明確表示白銀牛市已經終結,非常遺憾的是,這一警告未能得到更多投資人重視。

    不過,就個人而言,作為一個金融市場趨勢預測家,一個國民財富風險預警者,本人的責任已經盡到,也可以安心了。

2011年9月23日星期五

美不印鈔 港人要為衰退備戰

美不印鈔 港人要為衰退備戰

(綜合報道)美國聯邦儲備局經過兩日會議後,決定不再推出新一輪量化寬鬆措施,改為以扭轉操作壓低長息,期望穩定經濟。消息公布後,市場憂慮經濟面臨收縮,港股大幅下挫,全球由擔心出現滯脹,變成恐懼衰退重臨。
聯儲局本周議息,被視為全球金融市場的重頭戲,戲碼就是繼兩輪大舉印鈔放水後,被譏為「坐直升機派銀紙」的主席伯南克,會否再推出第三輪量化寬 鬆措施。美國會否放水,本來在上月全球央行聯會會有啟示,當時伯南克已使出拖字訣,到了今個月,共和黨的重量級議員去信反對再推出量化寬鬆,已令到儲局出 招機會大減。
放水若釀滯脹 後遺症大
市場對印鈔救市的希望逐漸降溫,當消息證實,亞太股市大跌,美股昨晚開市亦下挫三百多點,這個跌幅其實已反映了財金當局不斷控制期望的成果,否 則華爾街股市反應可能還要強烈,原因是儲局不放水,改為採用賣短債、買長債的「扭轉操作」,勢難阻止經濟下滑的勢頭,前景荊棘滿途。
金融海嘯爆發經過幾年時間,西方經濟創傷仍未回復,最主要是實體經濟問題根本未有解決,發達國家債台高築,失業率偏高,形成惡性循環。表面上, 美國國債如雪球般滾大,形成惡性循環,骨子裏真正禍患是黨爭不息,總統和國會對峙、執政和在野兩黨互絆後腿,為來年的總統競選勾心鬥角,真正振興經濟的計 畫只聞樓梯響,單靠央銀獨力支撐,又怎能對抗接踵而來的危機?
受到次按和樓市泡沫爆破創傷,美國縱使在低息環境下療養多年,近日出台的數據仍反映增長乏力,大企業為保業績,紛紛舉刀準備裁員,市道隨時再受 重挫。政府債台高築,又無法說服國會加稅,結果只有兩條路選擇,一是冒滯脹風險,再度大舉印鈔;二是擺擺姿態,忍痛接受不景現實。無論那一條路,都不是無 痛良方。現在央行決定在現階段停止印鈔,經濟肯定面對下滑風險,資金於是由黃金、商品、股市流向美債避險,造成資產價格紛紛下挫。
壞消息陸續來 投資審慎
美國冒險印鈔或忍痛讓經濟自行調整,對香港都難免受到衝擊。兩害相衡,聯儲局若再開動印鈔機,帶來的後遺症會更深遠,原因是港元跟隨美元走軟,入口通脹強勁,加上本地失業率低,市道容易過熱,資產泡沫不斷膨脹,埋下日後硬着陸的禍根。
美國印鈔救市的憧憬破滅,造成今次股市大跌,繼之而來是衰退威脅襲來,產生的衝擊不宜低估。未來一段時間,不利消息可能還會陸續有來,港人應該 做好準備,處變不驚。至於投資者是否應該趁低吸納,先要看個人財政狀況,宜適當保留現金在手。由於經濟環境轉差,將影響企業盈利,投資宜分段吸納優質公司 股票,並有較長綫持有的準備。

弱美元與現代「尋金熱」

馮觀榮、林建

閱 報得悉「世界電影經典回顧2011」系列將會在9月底重播差利.卓別靈的《淘金記》。差利.卓別靈自導自演的電影,筆者在童年時每一部都有看過,其中對 《尋金熱》(現譯《淘金記》)印象猶深。故事記述當年美國阿拉斯加州發現金礦,小人物差利.卓別靈與一群失業者也參加了淘金的行列,不幸遇上暴風雪,被困 在山上饑寒交迫之際,卻遇上昔日自己曾暗戀的舞孃;笑中有淚,淚中帶笑的情節,由是展開。電影中,被風吹得左搖右擺的木屋、差利吃鞋以充饑的場面,至今難 忘。
黃金重要性曾受懷疑 
差 利的《尋金熱》,製作於1925年,當時布列頓森林協定(Bretton Woods Agreements)還未有出台,但黃金作為財富保值工具早已深植人心。1944年,44個國家通過了布列頓森林協定,其中一個重要的內容,就是把黃金 與美元掛鈎,從此黃金就正式地跑上了國際貨幣的舞台,成為貨幣發行的基石。但好景不常,六十年代開始至七十年代初,爆發了多次美元危機,美元對黃金貶值, 美元與黃金掛鈎的體制名存實亡;1973年開始,世界各主要貨幣實行浮動滙率制,從此黃金的價格又再自由浮動起來。
由 於七十年代美元開始走弱,以美元計算的金價在脫鈎後仍然維持強勢,於1980年1月21日,創出了850美元一盎斯的高價,但由於黃金已失去其對貨幣的主 導地位,投資界開始懷疑黃金作為一個投資產品的重要性;八十年代中,香港就曾出現過「十年黃金變爛銅」的說法,果然,金價在1980年至2000年經歷了 20年的熊市,由800多美元跌至200多美元。
牛 熊交替,好像是投資市場不易的真理,黃金的價格在上世紀末跌至接近其生產價後,於2004年重上400美元,當時就有經濟學家Mark Thornton從技術分析角度出發,指出金價將會迎接一個長期的升勢(a secular bull market)(見【註】,Mark Thornton並於2005年預測樓市泡沫已達快要爆破的邊緣)。其後,金價真的節節上升,於上月(2011年8月23日)創出了每盎斯超過1900美 元的歷史新高,行文時金價還是居高不下,徘徊於1800美元一盎斯的高位。
事 實上,當黃金的價格於1999年跌至接近其生產價時,代表了投資界當時只把黃金等同於其他任何一隻商品,而把它的投資價值做了一個近乎百分之百的撇賬。他 們忽視了在戰爭時期及諸如當前經濟金融市場不穩定時期,人們往往對一些傳統資產的價值,比如證券、債券、現金等失去信心,轉而增加對黃金的需求。
近 年歐美各國的貨幣供應急劇增加,多個大國都受雙赤問題所困擾,黃金又開始重拾過往的江湖地位。金融海嘯後,美國經濟持續低迷,以及美國聯儲局的量寬貨幣政 策(QE)進一步弱化了投資者對美元的信心。美元持續走弱及近期的歐債危機,令投資者重投黃金的懷抱,新一輪的「尋金熱」由是興起,令金價於2010年突 破1000美元後,仍然能夠屢創新高。
美元與金價的負相關性
為 了對美元與金價的關係作進一步的量化分析,我們搜集了2000年1月至2011年9月有關黃金價格和美滙指數的資料,其走勢見【圖】,兩者互相背馳的形態 至為明顯。跟着我們計算兩者n天的回報率(n由1至22),並計算其相關系數(correlation coefficients),結果見【表】的第一列。
計算顯示,兩者有相當大程度的負相關,而且其負相關的程度與持有期長短無關:由2天的持有期起計算,相關系數都介乎-0.40至-0.49之間,相當穩定。
記得我們在分析VHSI與HSI的負相關時就曾指出負相關在HSI下跌時尤為明顯;黃金與美元的負相關又是否類似呢?換句話說:負相關會否在美元下跌時來得更為緊密呢?
為 了解答這個問題,我們把這11多年的時段劃分為六個時段,在第一、三、五時段,美元上升;在第二、四、六時段,美元下跌【圖】;然後分別計算在升市/跌市 時的相關系數。由【表】的結果可見,負相關的程度不受美元升跌所影響;換言之:比較美元升——黃金跌及美元跌——黃金升這兩者的關係,結果是相當對稱的。
這樣穩定的一個負相關,正好說明一點,投資黃金來對沖投資美元資產的滙率風險,有一定程度的對沖效用(hedging effectiveness)。由於港元掛鈎美元,港人對黃金能對沖美元貶值帶來的損失的投資效益,也不應予以忽視。
除了可對沖美元的滙率風險外,黃金投資亦可以對沖股票市場的風險,當另文介紹。
註:A Bull Market in Gold - Technically Speaking, Mark Thornton, Lew Rockwell.com
馮觀榮為香港浸會大學財務及決策學系教授
林建為香港浸會大學榮休教授



2011年9月22日星期四

7家儲蓄銀行停業韓國銀行或再現擠兌潮

據海外媒體報導,韓國金融服務委員會昨日召開臨時會議,決定將7家儲蓄銀行列為經營不善金融機構,並從即日開始勒令停業6個月。市場人士擔心,韓國各大金融機構或再現擠兌風潮。
據悉,被停業的銀行中有6家是因為自有資本金比例嚴重不足甚至不到1%,且負債超過資產。另有一家是因為其母行被停業,所以跟著被停。


根據韓國相​​關法律規定,被宣布停業的儲蓄銀行不僅立即停止對外一切業務,其管理層也被停職。此外,韓國金融監督委員會計劃對被叫停的儲蓄銀行進行集中審查,看其是否存在違法行為。不過,如果能從停業日開始的45天內通過有償增資等手段實現經營正常化,銀行也可以恢復營業。
早在今年年初,多家韓國儲蓄銀行宣布停業,隨即引發了韓國民眾的擠兌風潮,部分民眾損失慘重。其實,韓國的儲蓄銀行是門檻比較低的小銀行,通常用較高的存款利率吸收存款,又敢於向資質不太好的個人或企業發放貸款,其中包括房地產貸款。有分析人士表示,韓國儲蓄銀行多次被關停,其誘因即為不斷惡化的房地產市場,而韓國銀行業對房地產市場的參與度過高,則是危機的根源。
此外,有數據顯示,目前韓國家庭負債額超過了993兆韓元(約合人民幣6.057萬億元)。韓國家庭負債正在以一種可怕的速度增加。在歐債危機以及全球經濟前景不確定等因素的影響下,越來越多投資者擔心家庭負債問題會成為威脅韓國經濟的定時炸彈。

今日買銀....龍年銀幣

尋晚伯佬吹完水...市場覺得唔岩聽...來到港股玩 "笨朱jump"...大插9百幾點..又要記念下..
澳洲龍年銀幣..1oz ,10oz

2011年9月21日星期三

王SIR解說-泛亞黃金交易所




Central banks return as gold buyers

By Jack Farchy in Montreal
European central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in more than two decades, the latest sign of how the turbulence in the currency and debt markets has revolutionised the bullion market.

The purchases are minuscule compared with the size of the global gold market, but highlight a remarkable turnround from a wave of heavy selling by European central banks.
The role of central banks in the gold market will be a central topic of debate at the annual London Bullion Market Association conference, the largest gathering of the gold industry, in Montreal this week. The switch from large selling to buying has helped propel the gold price more than 25 per cent higher so far this year, hitting a nominal record of $1,920 a troy ounce this month. The shift in Europe comes as central banks in emerging markets are also loading up on gold.
Mexico, Russia, South Korea and Thailand have all made large purchases this year, in a move to reduce their exposure to the dollar. Globally, central banks are set to buy more gold this year than at any time since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system 40 years ago – the last time the value of the dollar was linked to gold.

“We’re going back to a time when gold is seen very much as money,” Jonathan Spall, director of precious metals sales at Barclays Capital, told FT.com in a video interview. “It has been a complete reversal of the attitudes we saw during the 1990s.”
European central banks have added about 25,000 ounces, or 0.8 tonnes, of gold to their reserves in the year to date, according to data from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
That compares with average sales of almost 400 tonnes a year since 1999, as they swapped their non-yielding and unfashionable bullion for sovereign debt. Global gold consumption stands at about 4,500 tonnes a year.
Most of the buying in Europe was related to Estonia’s move to join the single currency bloc at the start of the year. The Estonian central bank bought gold to add to the ECB’s reserves, according to an ECB statement in January. Elsewhere, Malta bought 3,000 ounces.
Europe’s central banks have not been net buyers of gold since 1985, according to data from the World Gold Council.
“The motivation for European central banks to diversify out of gold into dollar-denominated assets has been negatively impacted by US fiscal and monetary policy,” said Natalie Dempster, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed group.
A third round of quantitative easing would make the sale of gold “look less attractive than ever before”, she added.
The shift to buying comes as some politicians in the eurozone are calling for heavily indebted members such as Portugal, Spain or Italy to be forced to sell their gold reserves to reduce their debts. However, at current gold prices such a move would barely dent the countries’ debt piles, while analysts believe it would amplify investors’ concerns about the eurozone

London Trader - Massive Physical Floor in the Gold Market

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market.html

 
September 20, 2011
With gold hovering near the $1,800 level, a trader out of London told King World News, “China is trading gold at a $17 premium today vs COMEX futures.  Silver is trading at a premium of $2.48 vs futures price (COMEX).  What this tells you is that these people in China are willing to pay the equivalent of roughly $12,500 more per contract than what silver is being traded for on the COMEX.”
 
“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets.  These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions.


If there is that strong of a bid for gold out of the Eastern hemisphere, what that tells me is that all of the heavily leveraged paper manipulation in the West will not have much more downside impact.  All the manipulators are doing at this point is compressing a spring, but at some point this market is eventually going to gap up incredibly hard against them.


Two weeks ago there were some indications that the gold market was going to be taken down, an example being the sharp drop in lease rates.  You know how this works, a central bank(s) are selling some gold into the market and the bullion banks, which act as agents for the central banks, take that gold and sell it into the market and even use leverage at weak technical points....
“They also do this when trading is thin, such as during the access market when no one is around, and they drive the price lower in an attempt to create panic by the longs.


After lease rates had dropped and the gold market was attacked, we find out after the fact that the central banks decided to raise dollars by leasing gold.  The central banks had not done that for two years.  Central banks have been preserving central bank gold and overall the central banks have been net buyers, and then all of the sudden they lease it, thus selling it into the market. 


For what it is worth, this gold goes right into an Asian vault and it is gone from the West permanently.  This is having the effect of transferring Western solid assets over to the East, in size.  This has the appearance of desperation because in the end this is really an attempt to save the too big to fail banks that are on the wrong side of a derivative play yet again.  That is the reason this is being done. 


Western central banks don’t really want that gold to disappear like that, they don’t want to sell that gold.  They had to raise dollars in a hurry to pump liquidity into the system, but in the end, as I said, the gold is gone.  In the old days the gold would be floating around the LBMA system, there would be a little bit of erosion, but today that gold is being sucked into the East.


This price action has had the effect of creating bearish sentiment, but meanwhile the physical buyers are just sitting there and constantly accumulating physical gold.  There are massive orders for tonnage of gold, incredible amounts between $1,715 and $1,760.  This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold.  If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion.  There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached.


During this quarter this leased gold is supposed to be paid back, but how?  As the central banks come to grips with the reality that the leased gold is gone, there may be a religious experience to the upside in gold and you will see the gold price break the $2,000 level.


As far as silver goes, the paper price is becoming increasingly irrelevant.  It is possible there could be a spike to $37 or $38 in thin access trading, but the bottom line is that serious physical buying will be taking place anywhere below $40, so this is a losing game for the paper manipulators.”


This is the same trader that told King World News on August 10th with gold trading near the $1,800 level, “The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous.  The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market.  If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market.  In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience.”


Within days the price of gold spiked more than $100, breaking the $1,900 level.  Now the London Trader is telling King World News to expect this massive physical floor on gold to hold and that we should also look for gold to take off to the upside through the $2,000 level.  If sentiment is any indicator, the pessimism in gold could be signaling this market is in fact ready to turn, let’s see what happens.