2011年8月13日星期六

“金甲蟲”之歌——紀美元脫鉤黃金40周年



“當公司、銀行、國家甚至金錢本身貶值時,黃金,只有黃金,會是我們的救星!”“黃金,不同於波動的貨幣,是財富和安全的基石!”“黃金永遠地回來了!”

“當公司、銀行、國家甚至金錢本身貶值時,黃金,只有黃金,會是我們的救星!”“黃金,不同於波動的貨幣,是財富和安全的基石!”“黃金永遠地回來了!”
這是“金甲蟲”(gold bugs)之歌。(注:在華爾街,人們習慣把黃金的長線堅定多頭投資者們稱為金甲蟲。)這些人是黃金的狂熱粉絲,近一個世紀以來都認定黃金的投資價值,金價目前已接近每盎司2,000美元的紀錄。

下周一(8月15日)是金本位體系被宣布廢棄的40周年紀念日。即使金價在1981年達到峰值后,近25年都位於500美元以下,金甲蟲們依然堅定著對黃金的信念。而當時,他們的熱情被嘲笑,被看作無可救藥、過時的災難預言者,他們對黃金的熱愛看起來很不理智。
“金甲蟲”這一名字源於美國作者埃德加·艾倫·坡的同名小說,小說講述了一只金甲蟲帶領英雄尋找黃金和珠寶的故事。
麥金萊(William McKinley)是首位在全美進行演講的總統候選人,他支持金本位體系,反對其民主黨對手提出的白銀以固定比例加入的金銀復本位制。布萊恩(William Bryan)輸掉了競選,退出歷史舞臺,但金銀復本位制這一提法當時持續了一段時間。
2008年金融危機後,黃金受到從對沖基金到出租車司機各類投資者的青睞,促使金價幾乎翻倍。
金銀交易商Goldmoney創始人塔克(James Turk)說:“金價兌所有國家貨幣都明顯上漲。當一國貨幣出現問題時……人們就會開始擔心幣值,擔心是否會因通脹等問題失去購買力。因此,他們會尋找避風港。”
他是一個真正的“金甲蟲”,不僅是在2008年雷曼兄弟破產后的黑暗時期,去年歐元區深陷債務危機之時,或標普近期下調美債評級后。
他本周告訴記者:“我在2003年10月接受《巴倫周刊》(Barron"s)采訪時,就進行了長期預測,2013-2015年期間,金價會在某個時刻達到每盎司8,000美元。”他說,“我多年來一直堅持這一預測,現在也沒有理由改變。”
他認為,如果現在的政策持續,目前全球金融問題只會加劇,意味著金價上漲不太可能就此停止。“各國政治家和央行行長所作出的決策是讓本國貨幣貶值,隨後所導致的糟糕貨幣政策正推高金價,”他說道。
金價近期屢次刷新紀錄高位,同時華爾街股市卻跌至近一年低點,美元也處於多年來低點。
新奧爾良貴金屬交易商Blanchard and Co市場營銷和經濟研究副總裁比姆(David Beahm)同樣長期看漲金價,他說,投資者對股市穩定的擔憂,將是推動金價上漲的重要因素。“現在最好的投資選擇是黃金。投資者通過投資黃金,將資產組 合多元化,能規避股市暴跌”。“現在和未來幾個月,不太可能有消息能結束金價牛市,基本面顯示金價將繼續上漲。”
金價自2006年突破每盎司700美元后,有人僅憑“有漲必有跌”的分析,預測金價會跌,事實證明,這些人缺乏遠見。
http://news.cnyes.com/

40 years on from gold standard, bugs crow



LONDON | Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:22am EDT
(Reuters) - Gold, and only gold, will be our salvation when the value of companies, banks, countries and even money itself melts away. Gold, not shifting currencies, is the foundation of wealth and security. Gold is back, for good.
This is the song of the "gold bugs" - the fervent fans of the precious metal who have clung to its investment value for three generations and now glow in the reflected luster of a record price approaching $2,000 for just one ounce.
Monday will mark the 40th anniversary of the United States' abandonment of the gold standard. But gold bugs kept the faith -- even when prices stayed under $500 for nearly 25 years after their 1981 peak.
Their passion derided, dismissed as hopelessly out dated doomsayers, their love for the metal seemed irrational.
The gold bug label itself goes back to master of the supernatural Edgar Allen Poe and his story of that name, a tale of golden beetle whose bite sends the hero to a chest of gold and jewels.
It reappeared as one of the first campaign buttons -- a brass bug sported by supporters of William McKinley in the bitter U.S. presidential election of 1896.
McKinley, the first presidential candidate to barnstorm across the nation, backed the gold standard against his Democratic opponent's proposal that it should be joined by silver in a fixed ratio. Loser William Bryan slipped into history but bimetallism lived on for a little in the think tanks of the day.
Fast forward and the financial crisis of 2008 has made gold the darling of investors from hedge funds to taxi drivers, and sparked a near-doubling of prices.
"Gold has been rising against all national currencies, and that's significant," James Turk, founder of bullion dealer Goldmoney, said.
"When there are problems with a national currency... people begin to worry about the value of their money, whether they're going to lose purchasing power because of inflation or other problems. As a consequence, they look for safe havens."
He was speaking as a true gold bug -- not in the dark days after Lehman Brothers' demise in 2008, nor in the depths of last year's euro zone debt crisis, nor after Standard & Poor's recent downgrade of the United States' top-notch credit rating.
Turk's view came in a BusinessWeek interview he gave in 2005, well in advance of the current financial crisis.
"My long-standing forecast, made in a Barron's interview in October 2003, is that $8,000 per ounce will be reached sometime between 2013-2015," he told Reuters this week.
"I've stayed with that forecast over the years and see no reason to change it."
The world's current financial woes are only going to get worse if current policies continue, he believes, meaning the rally in gold prices is unlikely to stop here.
"Politicians and central bankers are making decisions that debase national currencies, and the resulting bad monetary policies they are following are causing the gold price to rise," he said.
Gold's latest push to record highs has gone hand-in-hand with a plunge in Wall Street stocks to their lowest in nearly a year, while the dollar is languishing near multi-year lows.
Long-term gold bull David Beahm, vice president of marketing and economic research at New Orleans bullion dealer Blanchard and Co., says worries over the stability of the stock markets will be a key driver of higher gold prices.

"The best investment right now is gold," he said. "By diversifying one's portfolio with a negatively-correlated gold, investors can protect themselves from deep plunges in the equity market."
"There is no news in the market today or over the coming few months that is likely to stop the current gold bull market, as the fundamentals are firmly in place for gold to continue its rise," he says.
Traditional investment commentators have dismissed gold -- which, with no "intrinsic" value of its own, is only really as valuable as a buyer thinks it is -- as a classic bubble.
But those who have predicted its crash since it rose above $700 an ounce in 2006, on a simple "what goes up, must come down" analysis, have consistently been proved short-sighted.
Gold prices traded in a relatively narrow range from $250-420 an ounce for the whole of the 1990s. They have since more than quadrupled from that high, peaking at a record just below $1,800 an ounce earlier this week.
Their rise accelerated sharply from 2005 onwards, breaking through $1,000 an ounce in 2008 as the weaker dollar fueled demand for alternative stores of value.
Now gold bulls are predicting that prices, now around $1,750 an ounce, but still short of an inflation-adjusted high of nearly $2,500 in 1980, could climb even higher.
"I believe the price of gold will rise irregularly over the next several years, possibly reaching $1,850 an ounce by the end of this year, breaking above $2,000 in 2012, and possibly $3,000, $4,000, and even $5,000 in years to come," says Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors and senior economic advisor to Rosland Capital.
"At the heart of this forecast is my observation (or belief) that the United States and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Europe have been living beyond our means for decades."
Back in 1896, losing presidential candidate Bryan's Cross of Gold speech turned the watching crowd into "a wild, raging irresistible mob," the New York Times reported.
Gold bugs, often accused of sensationalism, are finding their passion is becoming mainstream. "Raging" is probably no longer a suitable description of them. "Irresistible" is increasingly nearer the mark.

http://www.reuters.com/
(Reporting by Jan Harvey, editing by William Hardy and Richard Mably)