2012年4月30日星期一

Perth Mint Designer Wade Robinson



Wade Robinson has worked at the Perth Mint for almost a decade. During this time he has had an opportunity to work on many programs which have engaged his passion for creating coins for young collectors and his passion for general knowledge.
One of his most memorable experiences was his work on the Perth Mint's first Silver Kangaroo coin which was mass produced in high relief. Released in 2010, the one ounce silver proof coin featured a scene of two kangaroos boxing in the outback. These coins were made with an extra-deep blank to accommodate the detailed high relief design.
“We are innovative in the mass production of high relief coins and I thoroughly enjoy creating a detailed design which has outstanding impact.   I was very privileged to have the opportunity to work on The Perth Mint’s first Silver Kangaroo which incorporated deeper strike results for a spectacular finish.   Demand for this particular coin was extremely high and it was great to be a part of it.”

The High Relief Silver Kangaroo has become an annual release, with the 2011-dated coin still available and the 2012-dated coins scheduled for release in July.  The success of these issues has led to other high relief silver proof coins such as the recently released Year of the Dragon coin and the 2012 Kookaburra coin scheduled for release on May 1, 2012.

Perth Mint Creations

Wade Robinson studied at Central TAFE School of Art and Design, where he earned an Advanced Diploma in Graphic Design. He then worked as a primary school teacher and illustrator of school books and educational material. Since commencing employment at the Perth Mint in 2003, he has had a number of opportunities to design coins that engage a child’s imagination and inspire them to take a lifelong interest in the hobby of coin collecting.
Most recently, along with the rest of the team, Wade helped create the 2012 Young Collectors Animal Athletes program. This new series features some amazing creatures that can accomplish incredible feats. Wade's particular favorite, the Rhinoceros Beetle, is due for release later this year in September. The first release in the series, which is already available, features boxing kangaroos.
Another series that stands out for Wade is the Australian Sea Life II Series of silver proof coins.

“I worked on the Sea Life Series right from the initial in-depth research through to illustration, design and packaging.  This particular coin program is inspired by Australia’s coral reefs and includes the Hawksbill Turtle, Starfish, Surgeonfish, Octopus, and Manta Ray.  I have a real passion for general knowledge so it was extremely interesting to learn more about these amazing animals and bring them to life on coins.”
As part of the collaborative creative process undertaken at The Perth Mint, Wade has been involved in the design of a number of other coin programs. He worked on the entire Famous Battles in Australian History series.  This program is inspired by the service and sacrifice that underpins Australian military history – Gallipoli, Tobruk, Kokoda, Kapyong, and Long Tan – the fabric of heroic legend.  The first release, Gallipoli, is now sold out, with the other coins in the series expected to follow the trend.
Wade has also greatly contributed to the 2012 Ships That Changed the World series, the 2010 Great Warriors series, and the ongoing Australian Antarctic Territory coin program.
“I thoroughly enjoy my role at The Perth Mint and I’m looking forward to working on more innovative designs in the future. I’m very lucky to be at the stage in my career where we are continuing to produce coin after coin and collectors are still driving for more – it’s very fulfilling.”

Challenges and Rewards

As a long standing member of the Perth Mint's design team, Wade shared some of the particular challenges he has faced as well as the rewards of his work.
“The greatest challenge is designing an illustration to fit a circular format.  Traditional designs usually fit a square or a rectangle, so designing art work for a coin is a constant task.  After nine years, I have developed my craft and I can immediately judge which illustrations will work and those that won’t. Another challenge is portraying the full story and history of the coin onto such a small space.”
“It’s so rewarding to be able to design on long lasting, metal material and be a part of history.  It’s a great feeling to see my initials on the coins I have designed and be assured in the knowledge that they will be passed down through different generations to come.”

China's Zhongjin Gold to issue 600 million yuan in bills

http://www.bullionstreet.com/

Coupon rate will be determined in the process of book-building and the bills be issued at face value. Both value date and payment due date is May 4 and the to-be-issued bills tradable on May 7.
BEIJING(BullionStreet): China's largest publicly-traded gold miner by market share, Zhongjin Gold announced plans to issue 600 million yaun worth of 365-day unsecured bills on the interbank market on May 3, sources reported.

Coupon rate will be determined in the process of book-building and the bills be issued at face value. Both value date and payment due date is May 4 and the to-be-issued bills tradable on May 7.

China Lianhe Credit Rating Co Ltd has rated the issuer AAA and A-1, respectively.

Bank of Communications has been hired as book-runner and lead underwriter for the offering, and Huaxia Bank Co Ltdwill be joint lead underwriter.

Zhongjin Gold has reported a net profit of 412 million yaun for the first quarter, 24.67% more than in the same period of last year. The company's operating revenue surged 52.31% year on year to 6.44 billion yaun in the period
.

Gallup: America's Favorite Long-Term Investment Is Gold

http://www.moneynews.com/

Americans feel gold is the safest long-term investment out there, a Gallup survey finds.

Gold beat out four other types of investments perceived as the best long-term choice out there, with 28 percent choosing it today.


Real estate followed in second place, with 20 percent seeing it as the best long-term investment.


Savings accounts and CDs tied with stocks/mutual funds at 19 percent.

Bonds trailed at 8 percent.

"Investing in gold has gained in popularity in recent years as low interest rates have made traditional savings instruments less attractive, and instability in the stock and real estate markets has undermined the mass appeal of those options," Gallup reports.


"Meanwhile, the rising trajectory of the price of gold over the past several years apparently offers more of the returns and stability investors seek."


Gold prices are currently trading over $1,660 an ounce, down from peaking around $1,924 an ounce in late 2011 but well above $300 an ounce from just over a decade ago.


Weak gross domestic product growth figures and a sluggish jobs market are fueling talk the Federal Reserve will stimulate the economy in a way to encourage investment and hiring that weakens the dollar as a side effect.


Such a policy, officially known as quantitative easing but dubbed by critics as printing money out of thin air, would send gold's price rising.


Uncertainty in Europe also is likely to push gold higher, as calls for the European Central Bank to simulate the economy there grow as well.


European countries have adopted austerity measures such as tax hikes and spending cuts to right their debt-ridden economies, but many feel such harsh fiscal measures aren't working on their own.


"If you look at what's happening in Europe, they keep talking about austerity," says Matthew Bishop, a co-author of In Gold We Trust?, according to CNBC.


"The long way out of this is we're going to get some inflation and we're going to see gold go from being a specialist investment to being something which the public as a whole starts to buy, and that's when the price will really shoot up."


為什麼富人對市場更悲觀?

果你是在幫別人理財﹐而不是在用自己的錢投資﹐那麼你可能更容易持看多市場的態度。

儘管如此﹐最近一項研究顯示﹐富人和他們的理財顧問對市場的樂觀程度存在很大差距。嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)的一項研究表明﹐45%的理財顧問看好未來六個月的市場﹐相比之下﹐只有29%的富人(可投資資產在100萬美元或以上)看漲市場。

看跌市場的富人佔比達19%﹐持相同看法的理財顧問則僅有13%。

富人更傾向於相信未來六個月通脹水平將加劇﹐他們也更有可能相信失業率將上升、赤字將增加以及美國將經歷二次衰退。

Getty Images
約70%的富人說﹐他們的主要投資策略是保本﹐他們的主要投資目標是獲得足夠的退休收入安享晚年。

理財顧問對其客戶的投資目標有不同看法。他們說﹐50%的客戶尋求保本﹐另一半客戶希望資產增值。理財顧問說﹐64%的客戶希望獲得退休收入。

上述信息意味著﹐理財顧問不像他們的客戶那樣擔憂經濟或政治環境。他們也沒有意識到他們的客戶有多麼保守。

各位讀者﹐你如何看待理財顧問與客戶對市場的樂觀程度存在差距這種情況?僅僅是因為理財顧問想要向富人賣出更多理財產品嗎?

Robert Frank

2012新版加拿大硬幣變革

接連不到兩個星期, 加拿大皇家鑄幣廠宣布了兩項重要的貨幣政策.

其一, 取消一分幣/one cent的生產. 因為一分幣極少在市場上面流通,

大部分的功能只是用來找零, 大部分的民眾拿到後, 回家的動作就是投到零錢盒裡面, 鮮少再拿出來.

造成店家與民眾的存放以及使用上諸多不便,

這項計畫將持續到今年秋季, 之後會視這段時間市場對於一分幣的需求強弱而定,

倘若沒有意外的話, 加國楓葉一分銅幣極有可能就此走入歷史.

據了解, 加國生產一分幣的成本是1.5分,

取消一分幣的生產措施, 預計將會替加國省下每年11 million 加幣的成本開銷.

此舉並非全球首創, 在以10進位計數的國家中, 已有澳洲, 挪威, 瑞士與英國等國家,

開始取消以"一分單位"的個位計數.

取消過後, 一分幣仍可以在市場上流通, 但是店家販售的商品售價將跟著調整, 將一分捨去或是直接進位.

因此市場上將逐漸汰換掉一分銅幣的流通使用.




其二就是推出新版的一元銅幣與兩元的雙色幣,

新版的硬幣將比原來增加更強的防偽功能, 以削弱日益囂張的偽幣氾濫問題.

複合合金鋼的技術, 讓材料更加耐用, 防氧化, 成本更省.



以一圓幣而言, 幣面維持原本的野鴨圖騰. 新版除了原本的複合合金鋼, 也加上以楓葉為圖案的毫微雷射雕刻.

兩元雙色幣, 則維持北極熊為圖案, 齒緣凹刻字體, 毫微雷射雕刻, 以及上方的隱藏字(兩片楓葉)的設計,

幾乎用上所有目前最新的錢幣防偽技術, 堪稱為打擊偽幣集團的最佳利器. 呵呵~





美國已有12個州在起草使用與黃金白銀掛鉤的貨幣在緊急情況下替代美元流通的貨幣應急法案

宋鴻兵:2012年4月22日

4月19日美國密蘇里州眾院以95:37票通過了《2012年密蘇里堅挺貨幣法案》.該法案是繼猶他州之後的第二個以黃金白銀為貨幣核心的法案.該法案與猶他州的金銀貨幣提案略有不同,該州不是鼓勵用金幣銀幣進行直接流通,而是將金銀存為儲蓄,居民使用以金銀為儲蓄的借記卡的形式進行消費。參院近期將進行表決。
為防范美元劇烈貶值所造成的美國人民購買力大幅下降的風險,美國已有12個州在起草使用與黃金白銀掛鉤的貨幣在緊急情況下替代美元流通的貨幣應急法案。猶他州與密蘇里州已形成階段性成果,其它各州也在積極跟進。美聯儲如果推出QE3,將會加速各州相關法案的立法審批速度。
美國的州政府越來越關心美元問題我早已說過,美元垮_台絕不意味著美國垮_​​台,賴掉一切內外債後,美國仍是世界超_級_大_國,丟掉是債務鎖鏈,得到的是新的貨幣世界。美元改革遲早會啟動的。擔當,能解決一切問題;時間,能給出一切答案。

金價險守三年半升軌

石林
敝 欄上期特別指出,在線性圖表上,金市最近三年半的上升軌仍備受考驗,而這又正是當今十一年牛市的第三條上升軌。經一周的演變,上述自2008年10月金融 海嘯惡化時起至今的上升軌再次獲得險守,雖然金價向上拋離該升軌的幅度並不很大,但至少該軌終於無跌破,避免了中長線走勢出現進一步的惡化。
戲 劇性的行情發生在上周美國聯儲局FOMC會議後,市場對其失望的情緒使金價再次滑落至1624.5元(美元.下同),接近周一的低點1623.3元。但隨 後的FOMC政策聲明又重燃日後或會有新寬鬆措施的希望,金價迅速回彈。到周末又因聞美國首季GDP增長僅得2.2%,低於預期的2.5%,上述希望得以 強化,金價最高升抵1667.4元,並以1662.8元收市,全周錄得20.4元的升幅。 
銀市亦呈類似的走勢,銀價周內曾滑跌至29.98元的今年1月中旬以來的新低位,其後回彈至31.42元;惟周末收報31.27元,仍比前周微跌0.43元。
金市有新買盤進場
不單只是看金市,而且是看其他市場的表現,如果說貝南奇的政策聲明是為了保留他採取多種措施的權利,不如說是市場認為聯儲局將不得不施行更多的刺激政策。在此間接影響下,美滙指數上周進一步滑落至78.7水平,反過來又對金市帶來若干支持。
暫 且不研究上述事情在未來的兌現性,我們的確在金市中看到在低潮時有某些買盤重新入市的現象。期金市的未平倉合約量(O.I.)上周再減縮至39.53萬張 後,迅速回增到41.14萬張水平。金商的淨沽量減縮至16.72萬張的接近年初以來的低水平時,則被認為會是大投機者再度入市的好時機,這一點稍後將可 印證。
而「金礦股看漲百分比指數」(BMGDM)在兩三周前曾跌至10.7的相當偏低水平後,上周回揚至21.4,相應之下「金礦股指數GDM」從稍早前的1222點低位回彈至1303點,這就體現金市確有趁低吸納在進行中。
然 而,是否便可說金市就此作出中期回升呢?這又恐言之過早。我們雖不必理會金價50天平均線數日前剛跌破200天平均線,敝欄早在2004年就正式宣布此組 合不適合用於金市,但推薦參考的一季和一年平均線組合是有可能發生「熊的交叉」(Bear Cross),這不良訊號在當今十一年牛市只在金融海嘯時出現過。
金銀市背景不盡同
因此,我們宜以審慎的態度繼續注視金市的進一步演變。就金收市價圖而言,1620元和1680元依然分別是現時市勢的重要支持和阻力水平。上周向支持水平下試而終可保,如今是回趨上試阻力水平。而上方更大阻力水平則在1700元,目前這又大約是一季平均線水平之所在。
至於高低位圖表,金市中短期支持已上移到1630元至1635元地帶,短期支持則在1649元至1653元地帶。短期回升仍如上期所說的1663元至1670元地區,重要阻力地帶則在1680元至1683元,更關鍵的阻力區域是在1697元至1705元。
銀市情形並不完全類似金市,期銀的O.I.近日相反從上周初的12.27萬張,減縮到周末初報的11.21萬張,大投機者是否再入市暫無有力的旁證。
COMEX倉庫白銀存貨更飆升至1.418億盎斯新高峰,這不能說是有利銀價的訊息。
因此短期銀價雖在29.97元明顯回彈,且將支持位上移至30.5元,但目前在31.6元和32.2元仍分別有阻力。更大阻力在33.3元,且銀價頗難升越34.5元水平,金銀兩市背景既存有頗大的差異,故估計現時不致出現兩市顯著回升或金市過分一枝獨秀的行情。

白銀一支釘

A silver spike of a $1 in the overnight trading session?  Image below.  Doc’s take on this coming soon.


2012年4月29日星期日

熊貓背後的故事

 澳大利亞的笑翠和中國的熊貓,都是以動物為題材,各自有自己的特式和內容,

今次先看看中國的故事


淺論熊貓金銀幣的成功之處






熊貓普制金銀幣作為一種投資性金銀幣,在世界上的影響很大,是中國金銀幣的代表品種,自1982年 開始發行,至今已有近三十年歷史。熊貓普制金銀幣與世界其它國家發行的投資金銀幣固定圖案有所不同,其背面大熊貓圖案每年更換,大熊貓不同姿態的變化,擴 大了欣賞的品位,提高了收藏的情趣,使其在具有投資性的同時又具有了收藏價值。這些不同規格,圖案各異的熊貓普制金銀幣造型獨特,圖案精美,工藝精湛,自 成體系,有很高的藝術魅力,並兼具投資性和紀念性的雙重功能,在世界錢幣之林獨樹一幟,深受錢幣愛好者和收藏家的青睞。繼1983版熊貓普制金銀幣 雙雙獲得世界最佳金銀幣後,2001版熊貓普制金幣又獲得世界最佳金幣,2009版熊貓普制金幣獲《德國錢幣》雜誌世界金銀幣評選第一名。中國熊貓普制金銀幣的屢屢獲獎,證明了具有中國特色的熊貓普制金銀幣的確有其獨特之處,無論審美形象上還是從傳統價值上都能體現出這一點。


我作為一名錢幣設計師,參與並見證了中國熊貓普制金銀幣的成長與發展過程,從1983版熊貓普制銀幣到現在,我設計雕刻了不下十多枚圖案各異的熊貓普制金銀幣正背面,作為一名業內人士,我想從設計師的角度,通過設計雕刻範圍的視角來談談中國熊貓普制金銀幣成功的必然性。


一、豐富的藝術想像力
藝 術家們為了能將他們的感情真實地表現出來,可以把從不同的視角,不同的時間所感受到的事物表現在同一作品上,又可以按照他們的心願來誇張地表現某個部分, 極大地發揮創作者的想像力和創造力。因此,中國錢幣藝術所追求的並非自然地真實性,而在於根據表達意圖的需要進行大膽的主觀的處理。這種極具浪漫色彩的藝 術創作方式,為中國錢幣的藝術創作進入自由境界而真正達到審美理想提供了最大的自由空間,這也是現代錢幣浮雕所應追求自然發展之路。熊貓幣的創作同樣如 此,主觀的想像,中國民族化的思維方式,東西方文明的交融得到了充分的體現。熊貓幣的成功使我們更清楚地認識到,越具民族性的藝術就越具有世界性,我們必 須重視對藝術創作的規律和錢幣藝術創作的規律及浮雕藝術的研究,使中國錢幣的藝術創作有一個光輝燦爛的未來。
對 錢幣設計師來說,錢幣設計雕刻是一種特殊的藝術形式,它將你的創作天地局限於方寸之中,而在表現形式上又給予創作者以廣闊的空間。小小的錢幣其實就是一個 舞臺,在此上演著設計師的創意、思想與技巧,傳達著資訊與審美,既要尊重客觀物件,同時又要努力去傳達自身的藝術價值。因此,設計師除了擁有扎實的藝術功 底外,還必須具有豐富的想像力。
熊 貓普制金銀幣與其他金銀幣有所不同,其大熊貓圖案每年更換,這樣對熊貓普制金銀幣的設計與雕刻提出了非常高的要求,除了通過各種手段大量收集大熊貓的客觀 資料,最主要的是必須把作者的主觀意識融入其中,熊貓普制金銀幣中的大熊貓或坐持青竹,憨態可掬;或緩步漫行,悠然自得;或河邊飲水,蕩起漣漪;或爬坐樹 枝,側首觀望;或側坐扭身,或竹溪漫步。許多大熊貓的動作在生活 中很難或者根本不可能看到,這就需要作者在瞭解大熊貓生活習性的前提下做到心中有熊貓,充分發揮豐富想像力,在熊貓普制金銀幣不同大熊貓身姿中,其實可以 從中看出作者的喜怒哀樂,看出作者對生活的態度。大熊貓形象的擬人化創作,既來源於生活,又高於生活,藝術想像力在熊貓普制金銀幣的發揮可以說淋漓盡致。 這是熊貓普制金銀幣獲得成功的首要因素。

二、剪影效果在熊貓幣上的應用
浮 雕是在平面上雕刻出凹凸起伏形象的一種雕塑手段,是一種介於圓雕與繪畫之間的藝術表現形式,錢幣浮雕是一種特殊形式,應歸類於淺浮雕。淺浮雕起位較低,形 體壓縮較大,平面感強,更大程度地接近了繪畫形式。更多地利用繪畫手法透過透視,錯覺等處理方法來造成的壓縮空間。壓縮空間限定了浮雕空間的自由發展,在 這種情況下,輪廓線的處理在浮雕尤其是薄浮雕的設計雕刻中是要求我們給以高度關注的。完美的外輪廓本身可以表達圖案的形態,動感,甚至某些情緒,這就是我 們所說圖案的剪影效果。對輪廓的精心處理可以使整個形體達到醒目,從而增加其體積感,並在地浮雕的情況下產生一種體積上的錯覺。在剪影效果的 依託下,浮雕的實體感加強了,與圓雕相比,浮雕多按照繪畫原作來處理空間和形體關係。但是,在反映審美意象這一中心追求上,錢幣浮雕和圓雕是完全一致,不 同的手法形式所像是的只是某種外表特徵。作為雕塑藝術的種類之一,浮雕首先表現出雕塑藝術的一般特徵,即它的審美效果不但訴諸觸覺而且涉及視覺上的錯覺。 平面上的雕鑿與塑造,使浮雕可以綜合雕塑與繪畫的技術優勢,保持手法上的多樣性和多樣化。形象的外輪廓,即我們所說的剪影效果是浮雕創作的一個重要手段。
大 熊貓形象的塑造通過錢幣的鏡面襯托,輪廓清晰,簡練概括更顯可愛可親。作為背景的竹、樹、山、水組合,更具大與小,疏與密,動與靜的強烈對比而又不失協調 與均衡,襯托大熊貓的輪廓整體又不失變化。保持錢幣的整體感一直是錢幣設計師的目標與方向,剪影效果在熊貓金銀幣中的應用應該說是成功的,由於有了剪影這 一大框架,局部的刻畫從不超出整體的效果。最後的結果就是優美的、經典的,當然也是均衡的。


三、浮雕中的黑白灰
黑 白灰是設計藝術的基本元素,也是雕塑尤其是浮雕藝術的基本要素,浮雕正是運用光線在物體上形成的黑、白、灰來塑造體積的。錢幣浮雕中有黑、白、灰層次,工 藝處理有黑、白、灰肌理。整個構圖佈局也同樣有黑、白、灰關係。只有協調好之間的關係,才能使錢幣中的黑、白、灰相得益彰。中國大熊貓之所以能打動人心。 除了其中國特有稀有物種因素外,它的黑白相間,憨態可掬的可愛形象亦是一個重大的原因。熊貓金銀幣中大熊貓形象的處理,黑與白如何表現成了熊貓金銀幣成敗 的關鍵。大家一定記得,早期的熊貓幣黑色部分採用了凹雕鏡面的方法,白色部分採用噴砂效果,在當時應該說是一個比較新穎的工藝處理方法。較好的表現了大熊 貓的黑白關係。一經問世,就得到了世人的肯定。採用此處理方法的83版 熊貓金銀幣雙獲世界最佳金、銀幣。隨著工藝技術的不斷進步,反噴砂技術的出現和日趨完善,熊貓的黑白處理又有了新的手段,它可以使大熊貓在不破壞整體結構 形象的基礎上,保持了原有的強烈黑白對比。並且可以在大熊貓的黑色皮毛部分進行精細刻畫,利用浮雕中黑、白、灰肌理效果使熊貓形象更加符合真實。
背景的處理,同樣有疏密,黑、白、灰的對比。通過對比,使熊貓形象更加完整、深入。雕塑語言有多種多樣,正確把握好黑、白、灰的關係是錢幣浮雕創作中的一條捷徑結果就是優美的、經典的,當然也是均衡的. 

四、藝術與工藝的相互促進
藝 術與工藝一直是一對歡喜冤家,既相互制約,又相互促進,藝術的發展永遠是超前的。對真善美的追求往往對工藝技術提出新的,更高的要求。而每當新工藝,新技 術的出現又會對藝術的發展起到巨大的推動作用。熊貓金銀紀念幣的發展歷程證明了這一點。為了準確表現熊貓金銀紀念幣完美的設計雕刻效果,工藝技術人員創造 出凹雕鏡面噴砂的新工藝,為熊貓金銀紀念幣的黑、白處理提供了可能的手段,基本滿足藝術對工藝的要求。隨著人們審美意識的提高,工藝技術的不斷進步,反噴 砂技術的出現打破了原有工藝對熊貓金銀紀念幣設計雕刻上的限制,豐富了大熊貓的表現手法,為我們更好地塑造大熊貓形象提供了一個更完美的舞臺。採用反噴砂 新工藝的2001版熊貓金幣獲得了世界最佳金幣獎, 可以證明新的反噴砂工藝已為大家認同和肯定,新工藝提供了更好,更多的藝術表現手段,促進了錢幣設計雕刻水準的提高,而設計雕刻水準的提高又推動了工藝技 術的不斷改進、提高。周而復始,良性迴圈使中國熊貓金銀紀念幣能不斷以新的面貌出現,展現了我國熊貓金銀紀念幣蓬勃的生機。


五、創新是藝術的生命
熊貓系列金銀紀念幣深受錢幣愛好者及收藏家的喜愛,發行量逐年提高,除了大熊貓題材新穎形象可愛外,創新的設計,創新的雕刻,創新的工藝可以講是熊貓金銀紀念幣長盛不衰的重要原因。
把熊貓普制金銀幣1982年 發行以來幾十枚產品放在一起,幾十種不同的大熊貓形象,無論坐、臥、立、行,還是緩、急、閑、忙,無論持竹玩耍還是水邊嬉戲,我們看到的是一幅幅獨特的畫 面,看到設計雕刻師與工藝技術人員的獨具匠心,看到的是創新的力量。熊貓金銀幣圖案的窄邊到寬邊,有邊到無邊,又到有邊,大熊貓的刻畫大致有寫實、有略帶 裝飾風格,既有單個的大熊貓,也有多隻大熊貓,既有情侶相偎,有又母子相依。 工藝處理有凹部鏡面處理到反噴砂效果,文字的排列也各有千秋,而這一切又不失協調地統一在一個系列中,既出乎人們的意料之外,有合乎人們的情理之中。既反 映了時代的印記,也滿足了人們不斷提高的物質與精神上的審美要求。這同樣是熊貓普制金銀紀念幣之所以受歡迎,被喜愛的原因之一。

作 為一名錢幣設計雕刻師,能幾十年來見證熊貓普制金銀幣的發展過程,參與熊貓普制金銀幣的設計雕刻,是一份極大地榮幸,也是一種難得的創作體驗。通過熊貓普 制金銀幣的設計雕刻,自己對錢幣藝術有了更深刻的創作體驗。通過熊貓普制金銀幣的成功經驗對今後的設計雕刻工作會有重大的幫助。從某種意義上講,熊貓普制 金銀幣的誕生,是我國幾代錢幣設計師、藝術家以及生產者的創造性勞動的產物,也是對與時俱進的審美意識物態化的貢獻。能從小小的熊貓普制金銀幣種享受、品 嘗、體驗到藝術的真諦,不亦樂乎。
(作者:上海造幣有限公司 餘敏)

The Silver Megathrust

Stephan Bogner
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 „History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. (Mark Twain)
Between 1970 and 1979, the silver price was increasing steadily from $1.50 to $6, before taking off in September 1979 from $10 to $50 within 5 months. During that bull cycle, demand for silver did not increase but actually declined (sharply in 1979). It was as late as 1983 when demand increased confidently from 12,000 to 27,000 tons per year until 2000 – yet the silver price was in a 20 year bear market during that time. In 2003, when silver started its new bull market, the demand actually dropped to 23,000 tons until 2005 – during which 2 years silver almost doubled from $4.50 to $8. Since 2005, demand is rising stronger than ever, having reached 33,000 tons in 2010, whereas the silver price is rising strongly as well.
The initial comparisons indicate one important phenomenon in the silver market, namely that (industrial) silver demand is “price inelastic”: that is, changes in price have a relatively small effect on the quantity demanded. The demand for other commodities is known to be “price elastic”: that is, changes in price have a relatively large effect on the quantity demanded (if tomato prices blow up, go bananas). This basically translates into: no matter if the silver price crashes or explodes, demand – unimpressed – will keep its own dynamic pace, because demand does not respond to price changes. Firstly, silver is the most broadly used metal, because of its unique characteristics, such as highest thermal and electrical conductivity of all metals. In most of its few thousand application fields, silver is considered a non-substitutable product. In contrast for example, when the platinum price increases too strongly, automotive demand traditionally substitutes for cheaper palladium thus potentially driving down the platinum price. Secondly, silver typically makes up only a relatively small component in the total of the product and the total of its costs. Both these demand characteristics/inelasticities (not substitutable and small cost component) are crucial to understand the silver price, because they remind that no matter if price explodes or crashes, (industrial) demand virtually does not care, but keeps on consuming as per its own factors/fundamentals. Notwithstanding, an increased demand principally has a positive effect on the price, of course (GFMS expects fabrication demand in 2012 to rise by approx. 3-5% to around 29,000 tons silver, whereas fabrication demand accounts for more than 80% of total demand; fabrication demand includes industrial applications, photography, jewelry, coins and silverware).
Now let’s have a look at the price elasticity of supply – a way to show the responsiveness (“elasticity”) of the quantity supplied to a change in its price. What happens to the silver supply if the price crashes or explodes? Nothing much either. Surely, if price explodes people tend to melt their forks and knives besides selling their silver investments, hence private and commercial recycling and selling will increase in the short-term (yet silver is already being recycled “where possible”, and most of the silver ever consumed by industry can be considered as lost respectively not recyclable). More importantly, core supply (mining) does not change significantly if the silver price changes. This shows us a second important phenomenon of the silver market, namely that silver is supplied predominately as a bi-product during the mining of other metals, such as gold, copper, zinc and lead (in 2011, mining accounted for 73% of total supply, whereas primary silver mines only contributed 29%). This implies that the silver mining output does not depend on the silver price, but rather on the price of the primary metals, such as gold, copper, zinc and lead. For example, if the copper price doubles, copper mining typically expands generating more silver output. If the copper price is cut in half, silver output shrinks no matter if silver price doubles or quadruples. The mining and consumption of primary metals like copper and zinc is dominated by the automotive and electrical industry thus largely depending on economic growth in developed and/or non-developed countries. If economic growth collapses in the future, less silver is mined which principally translates into higher prices. If economic growth flourishes in the future, more silver is expected to be mined – however, so much more silver must be mined to even meet demand that it is (more or less) safe to consider it as not realistic (in today’s terms): In 2010, total silver supply was 23,000 tons and total demand was 32,000 tons. The difference is called (supply-demand) deficit, whereas the “chronically missing silver” comes from destocking. Why is someone filling up the gap as the price shall “correct the deficit” by way of rising thus decreasing demand? Because it would not work, of course (as we have seen above). Thus, when destocking has come to an end and industries do not get supplied with sufficient silver (no matter where the price may trade or be fixed at), the respective (silver-containing) product can not be produced in “unlimited” quantities anymore thus (increasingly) limiting the production output and its economies of scale. Hence, it is the price of this “limited edition” (silver-containing) product that will increase in order to get supply and demand balanced out, whereas the silver price principally does not to change as it would not effectively increase supply or decrease demand (as we have seen above). Notwithstanding, a decreased supply principally has a positive effect on the price, of course.
The difference between gold and silver, and every thing in general, is its present supply and demand respectively its valuation/perception and ultimately its price. Firstly, silver (0.08 ppm = 8 gram in 1,000 tons) occurs on average 20 times more often in earths continental crust than gold (0.004 ppm). On earth (incl. hydrosphere, atmosphere and crust to a depth of 16 km), silver (0.13 ppm) occurs 26 (=13x2) times more often than gold (0.005 ppm). Hence, (below-ground) gold is more rare than silver. Secondly, gold deposits form near surface and at depth, whereas silver predominately forms near surface and not at depth. Thus, fewer silver deposits will be discovered in future due to technological breakthroughs since 1950s having discovered most near-surface deposits already. Hence, (below-ground) silver trends to be more rare than gold. Thirdly, most of all gold ever mined (approx. 90% of 150,000 tons total) still “exists” (marketable) as dominantly being hoarded as a hedge against money (either fiat-money or gold-backed money). Most of all silver ever mined (1.6 million tons total) has already been lost as typically being irrecoverably consumed by the industry. Hence, (above-ground) silver is more rare than gold? Not quite there yet – as estimates calculate around 600,000 tons still “existing” marketable in form of coins, medals, bars, jewelry and other silverwares. Assuming yearly silver demand at 45,000 tons, no mine output, and no (other) destocking, it would take 10 years until there is around the same amount of (above-ground) silver left as gold (150,000 tons) and another 3 years until the rest is lost as well (this includes the assumption that the owners of the 600,000 tons silver would sell consistently with higher prices). In the end, silver may be more rare than gold as below- and above-ground silver is (currently) being vanished into thin air.
Amazingly, there still is a price correlation alive between both metals as both seem to get daily priced in tandem. This may be explained that both backed money in history and are – from times to times – considered as “money” – by some or many. If the Dollar was backed by gold (and/or silver), then you may call it “money” as you may be officially allowed to actually also use physical bullion as “legal tender”(for whatever today unimaginable reason you would want to do that instead of using handy light-weight, foldable and quickly acceptable paper money backed by gold; respectively you trust such paper being worth a certain amount of gold as you could redeem this lose paper against massive gold anytime you wanted (during opening hours at your local FED). Yet what makes (standardized) gold/silver truly precious is not only that – theoretically – you can call it “money” and even use it as such, but practically value it as a priceless, natural and proven “safety feature” (or you may call it “a hedge against money/power”) that the paper money you use is not inflatable. It’s like with an airbag – you don’t want see it inflate, but if you did, you truly feel fortunate to have it as it may save your life again. Or as per the article The Sword above the Damocles-Dollar: the value of the (gold/silver) sword is not that it falls (usage as “real money”), but that it threatens to fall (appreciation as “safety feature” / hedge) resulting in total stability.
Gold and silver always shared being an effective hedge against money (either fiat money or gold/silver-backed money), but it’s their differences that present unique price appreciation potentials. If you study the history of gold, you always find silver. Both metals mainly occur together in ores, both are the first mentioned metals in the bible, and both are used in sacred rituals. Since thousands of years, gold and silver are considered precious and valuable. More than 6,000 years ago, Egyptians determined a gold/silver-ratio of 13.3 – and indeed, the ratio traded at an average of 15 in the millenniums thereafter. The Egyptians were the best (proven) analysts ever!? However, their 13.3. ratio figure was not based on technical or fundamental data as we use, but the fact that the moon moves 13.3 times faster in the zodiac than the sun. Many of the beliefs in India, whose people are notoriously known to traditionally hoard and hang themselves in gold, pray to the sun, whereas the moon enjoys a high relevancy in Muslim beliefs. According to Greek historians, King Croesus of Lydia was the first ruler (560-546 BC) issuing a bi-metallic gold/silver currency. There were 2 silver coins: one with 10.72 gram silver and the other half that much resp. 5.36 gram – if you multiply the first one with 10 and the other one with 20, you get 107.2 gram. The known gold/silver-ratio was kept at 13.3; 107.2 gram / 13.3 = 8.04 gram for the one and only gold coin. Thus, 10 big (10.72 gram) silver coins equal 1 gold coin of 8.04 gram and 20 small (5.36 gram) silver coins equal 1 gold coin of 8.04 gram.
Taking a look at the (above) gold/silver ratio since 1800, it strikes the eye that in the beginning it was seemingly constant at around 15, whereas it rose around 3-fold and fluctuates heavily around 45 points since the end of the 1800s. Despite rising as high as 100 in the 1930s and 1990s, the 15-level held as strong support during times of strong corrections in the 1910s, 1960s and 1980s. Currently, it trades at 52 points and thus right in between the resistive (red) triangle leg at approx. 93 and the supportive (green) leg at approx. 33. Since the 1990s, the ratio traded near the red leg between 50 and 90, whereas recently it fell strongly to the green leg at 33 points. After this short but successful “pullback” to the green leg (now confirmed as new support), the ratio rebounded strongly to the current level. Let’s assume a gold price of $2,000 for the next years: at a gold/silver ratio of 100 silver would trade at $20, at a ratio of 50 silver costs $40, at a ratio of 30 it stands at $66, and at 15 points silver sells for $133. If gold rises to $5,000, silver costs $50 at a ratio of 100, stands at $100 if ratio remains at 50, whereas silver trades at $166 at 30 points, and $333 at 15 points.
Taking the silver price since late 2009 into perspective (below), it strikes the eye that the “strong“ and “long“ price appreciation from $15 to $50 (3.3-fold) between February 2010 and April 2011 occurred after sideways consolidations along red trendlines – and that another such (red) consolidation period formed thereafter (yet with the difference of being much larger and enduring much longer leading to the conclusion that the price appreciation is set to be much stronger and much longer this time; if the red resistance currently at $35 is broken successfully).
The (below) silver price started to fluctuate within a (green) upward-trendchannel in 1997. In late 2010, the resistive uppermost (green) trendline was broken at approx. $23, whereafter a breakout took the price to the $50 level. The subsequent pullback has the goal of testing and potentially confirming this (formerly resistive) trendline (as new support) – in order for a new and longer-termed upward-trend to begin thereafter (if successful). Thus, a major sell-signal is not given until breaching this trendline currently at approx. $27.50. Thus, a buy-signal is active above this support, whereas a major buy-signal is generated when rising above the red and violet resistances currently at $35 and $45.
The below chart shows the beginning of the last silver bull (1970-1975) and there may be a similar pattern in play when comparing with the above price actions of the beginning of the current bull (since 1997). The silver price nearly doubled between 1974 and August 1979, before rising sharply from $10 to $50 within the following 5 months. Silver rose 6.65-fold (13.3/2) from $6.45 in February 1974 to a monthly average of $43 in January 1980. Thus, if you take the 2011 high of $50 and multiply with 6.65, you get silver at $333 (as we have seen above, this can translate into gold trading at $5,000 with a gold/silver ratio of 15; or gold at $33,300 with a ratio of 100).
The below chart shows that a “long-term” upward trend (blue) is active since 1950. The strong price increases in the 1970s and 2000s are so-called “thrusts” out of (red-green) triangles respectively after sideways-consolidation periods beneath the red resistances. The largest and longest triangle formed after the 1960-80s bull enduring around 13 years before the thrust to the upside started in 1992 at $4 (yet notably rising strongly since 2002). In 2011, the thrust reached $50 thus having appreciated 13-fold. Principally, the goal of a thrust is to break the resistive high of the triangle ($43 monthly or $49.45 daily) and transform it into new support – in order for a new and longer-termed upward-trend to begin thereafter.
If you bought silver in the last month of the last bull market ($43 in January 1980) and recently sold at $50, you may now sleep proudly as having finally sold with a (nominal) profit. Far from reality but happy? Yes, but net you really lost, because you would need a silver price of more than $100 today in order to get you out plus-minus zero. The reason is inflation – as silver is priced in dollar which currency lost purchasing power over the past. If you want to find out any historic silver price in todays (dollar) terms, you may use a “dollar-inflation-adjusted silver price”. When you do so, kindly check the definition of “inflation” as this is the basis of the whole idea. Today, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation barometer and most market participants (still) act according to this index.
As per the below CPI-inflation-adjusted dollar silver price since 1800, a 200 year long (red-green) triangle formed between $50 and $4. In the 1960-80s, the price broke the resistive (red) triangle leg at around $8 and the subsequent “breakout” took the price to >$100. Thereafter, the “classical pullback” started taking the price back into the triangle and to the apex at around $5 in 2003. Since then, the thrust to the upside is active. The goal of this thrust is to break the high of the triangle ($50) and its breakout ($100) and to transform both resistive levels into new support – in order for a new and longer-termed upward-trend to begin thereafter. At the top of the below chart is the (not dollar-inflation-adjusted) silver price next to the (black) CPI, whereas it is considered as a very bullish sign when the price has achieved breaking above the CPI curve – as a strong move up from there may occur (again as per the last bull cycle).
The CPI basket has been changed in a way that does not seem to represent real inflation anymore. An increasing number of market participants estimate real inflation higher than the official 2-3% p.A. (CPI). The SGS (Shadow Government Statistics) index is felt to better reflect real inflation, whereas it uses the same definition/calculation of inflation as official government agencies used in 1980. Currently, the annual SGS inflation rate stands at 6% p.A. If we now adjust the dollar by SGS-inflation (instead of CPI) and look back at “the old all-time high” of the last bull cycle in January 1980, we note the “SGS real” silver price traded at almost $500 (in today’s dollar terms, whereas these terms are defined by an inflation measure that was used in 1980 and not today). This translates into: if I wanted to sell silver today at the same price level as in January 1980 considering todays purchasing power of the dollar, silver would need to trade at around $500 today. Or the other way around: if I bought silver at the peak of the last bull market, its price must really/today trade at around $500 to get me out without a real/net loss.
“Finally and with the sky apparently not being the limit, you may kindly fasten your seat belt as the silver rocket is on its way home to the moon.” (2006)
“Crashing the Unknown” by Chesley Bonestell (1950)
Stephan Bogner

2012年4月28日星期六

世界黃金協會:中國黃金儲備僅1054.1噸排名第六

中證網 2012-04-27 18:05



世界黃金協會(WGC)425日發布的各國央行金儲最新數據報告顯示, 根據報告提供的數據,美國、德國、國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、意大利和法國所持有的黃金儲備規模均超過2000噸,分列全球黃金儲備持有主體榜單前五位并形成了全球金儲第一集團;而緊隨其后排名第六的中國,其持有的黃金儲備規模僅為1054.1噸。

值得注意的是,包括土耳其、哈薩克斯坦和墨西哥在內的新興經濟體“新面孔”在過去半年內購金勢頭迅猛,而由其引領的新一輪央行購金潮,將可能在未來一段時間內為國際金價提供持續支撐力。

“金磚四國”金儲占比較低

除中國之外,巴西、俄羅斯和印度等“金磚四國”其他成員經濟體的黃金儲備持有量分別為33.6噸、879.2噸和557.7噸,相應排名為第51位、第8位和第11位。

數據顯示,美國和德國所持黃金儲備在其央行外匯儲備總量中的占比分別高達77.1%74%,在全球范圍內僅次于葡萄牙的91.5%和希臘的83.3%。在其他主要的歐美發達經濟體中,法國、意大利金儲占比也分別達到73.3%73.8%

相比之下,中、巴、俄、印等“金磚四國”金儲占比則僅為1.8%0.5%9.7%10.5%,遠遜于歐美發達經濟體平均水平。中央財經大學中國經濟與管理學院教授卜若柏曾指出,包括中國在內的大型新興經濟體有必要將部分外匯儲備轉換成黃金儲備,這對對沖美元資產貶值損失、緩解外儲風險有著重要意義

央行購金料將支撐金價

與此同時,“金磚四國”之外的經濟規模相對較小的一些新興經濟體,成為了近來全球央行“購金潮”的主力。

數據顯示,盡管年初并非央行購金的傳統“旺季”,但哈薩克斯坦的金儲規模卻在今年12兩個月的連續上揚7.6%2.2%,從而成為2012央行購金潮中的最活躍分子;而1月分別增持3.7%4.1%的土耳其則緊隨其后。

若將考察上述變量的時間軸放遠,“金磚國家”以外的新興經濟體仍是“央行購金潮”的中堅:以土耳其為例,該國央行金儲規模在去年第四季度內連續實現了21.7%41.3%16.3%的月度環比增長;泰國去年89兩月的相應數據則分別達9.3%15.6%。此外,墨西哥央行去年9月高達78.5%的金儲環比增幅,則成為過去半年來全球央行購金潮中最大的波瀾。

分析人士指出,經濟規模相對有限的部分新興經濟體經濟復蘇進程相對平穩,這是其掀起購金潮的重要因素;而全球經濟復蘇遭遇波折,也讓其他央行意識到了擴大金儲規模的必要性。在美國經濟復蘇漸強,市場避險情緒漸淡的背景下,全球央行購金潮是國際金價近期得以停留在每盎司1600美元價位的重要支撐力。

不一樣的譚公誕





2012年4月27日星期五

Gold standard inevitable, $10k/oz looms, says new book (5:18)

CPM Group’s Jeff Christian Makes the Case for $359/oz Silver!

http://www.silverdoctors.com

Our favorite bankster shill Jeffrey Christian, who boldly told CNBC in January that gold and silver had seen their highs for 2012 (it took all of 2 weeks for that call to be proven wrong), has rather inadvertently made a rather strong case for $359/oz silver while attempting to bash gold again.
Never expected to see the day when Jeffrey Christian made a rational case for a 4.6:1 silver/gold ratio.
from Bix Weir, Road to Roota:

The latest release from the Banking Cabal’s more than bizarre egomaniacal mouthpiece, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group, inadvertently makes a rather strong case for $359/oz silver while trying to trash gold. I’m sure that it was not his intention to promote silver as his release was clearly designed to pour cold water on any hopes for gold to take off but true to form – he put his foot in his mouth again!
5 Billion Ounces of Gold… His main argument in this article is that there is an astounding amount of gold out there available for sale. He tries to back this up by showing us how his historical numbers are derived. This is the first time I’ve heard him tell the world where his historical gold numbers come from and I find it fascinating that the origins come from the 1960′s estimates commissioned by Harry Oppenheimer.
I’ll save that analysis for another day but what I find most interesting in the CPM report is that in their burning desire to trash the gold psyche they state…
On 17 May CPM Group will release its Silver Yearbook 2012. In that report we will show that cumulative world silver production is estimated to have surpassed 50 billion ounces in 2011, ten times as much as gold. In stark contrast to gold, about 46% of the silver mined throughout history is estimated to be lost or undetermined in its location. People will lose silver, or use in it an industrial or household application from which it does not get recovered(e.g. mirrors). People tend not to lose gold.
So if we are to believe Christian when he claims that there is 23B ounces of silver above ground (50B x 46%) and 5B ounces of gold above ground then the silver-gold price ratio should be 4.6-to-1 rather than the 53-to-1 current price ratio.
With gold currently trading at $1,650 isn’t Christian making a case that silver is MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED at $31/oz? According to his own data, available above ground silver should be trading at a ratio of 4.6-1 of the fair market value of gold or $359/oz.
Maybe he’d like to have a “DO-OVER” of last year’s Silver Manipulation debate!
The Great Silver Debate
Of course we know there is not even close to 23B ounce of silver available but you get the idea. Silver, even according to the Banking Cabal’s mouthpiece Jeffery Christian, is MASSIVELY UNDERVALUED!
Load up while you still can. May the Road you choose be the Right Road.

Gold to hit $7000/oz: Bank of America

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): In one of the highest predictions yet made by an investment bank analyst, Bank of America's MacNeil Curry sees gold prices hitting $7000/oz before ending the uptrend.

 According to MacNeil, commodity bull markets end with a massive speculative blow off and they don't end quietly. If gold was topping out, the daily ranges would have span around $200/oz and we have not seen anything like it. "Until we see price action take some kind of massive speculative blow-off, where prices effectively double in a year or less, I have to maintain a long-term bullish bias. That says to me, we'll probably see a move in gold, before all is said and done, to between $3,000 to $5,000 (per ounce) and potentially $7,000 per ounce”, Economic Times quotes the analyst from the Market Technicians Association symposium last week. 

There have been other analysts who have predicted massive surge in Gold's value. When the US went off the gold standard, prices went up from $35/oz to $800/oz. Equating the same performance in the current gold market, gold prices will have to rise to $5000/oz from its base of $250/oz. Predictions of $10,000/oz have also been doing rounds, the figure arrived from calculations of existing global money supply.

 http://www.commodityonline.com/

2012年4月26日星期四

《追尋——熊貓金幣設計師訪談錄》

陳堅篇:熊貓金幣獲得國際大獎,為國家爭光

 
第一部分 熊貓金幣誕生記

    
如何完美而且精確地在金銀紀念幣上表現出熊貓黑白兩色的關係,探索的過程是很艱苦的。中國早期熊貓金幣的“凹刻法”,是國外的先進經驗和國內的傳統工藝共同促成的。

    
問:您是中國第一套熊貓金幣的設計者,當時是在什麼情況下接到這個設計任務的?

    
陳:那是1981年的時候,上海造幣廠(上海造幣有限公司的前身)接到造幣局的通知,準備要做熊貓金幣。當時廠裡覺得很突然,怎麼設計和鑄造熊貓金幣也沒有任何準備因為時間比較倉促,我們一線設計人員在沒有去過國外考察、也沒有去實地采風的情況下即創造性地開始了工作。

    
問:收藏者很感興趣,熊貓金幣到底是在一種什麼環境下誕生的?

    
陳:當時廠部組織了十位設計人員,大家開始埋頭畫,規定在一個時間段內每人交最滿意的一幅設計作品。然後送交廠部,初步議論後送到造幣局。熊貓的形象,人們是太熟悉了,反而使熊貓金幣的設計增加了難度。當時畫的時候也沒有任何要求,就完全按照設計師自己的風格,有的完全卡通化,有的像商品商標的風格,有的完全移植照片上的寫真形象,風格非常多樣。

    
我當時畫的設計稿,熊貓保持坐姿,頭略抬,手上拿著竹子,好像在跟觀眾問好,熊貓的視線跟觀眾的視線是迎合的,好像在跟人們親切地說,“你好”。怎麼安排表現手法呢?太寫實沒有美感,變形太過又缺乏真實性。如何在寫實的基礎上表現得生動一點,寫實和卡通風格相結合是最佳的選擇。可能因為這幅設計稿是在真實的基礎上,最大限度地集中表現出熊貓在人們心目中既定的審美形象,最後造幣局通過反复推敲,最後選定了這幅“熊貓吃竹圖”作為82版熊貓金幣的基本圖案(附圖)。





問:在82版熊貓金幣的工藝處理時,當時最大的難點是什麼?

    
陳:熊貓天賦的黑白兩色以及皮毛柔和的質感,是當時鑄幣工藝處理上的最大難點。如何用鑄幣工藝完美而且精確地在紀念幣上表現出熊貓黑白兩色的關係,當時設計人員進行了艱苦的探索過程。

    
一開始的設想是熊貓黑毛的部分完全粗化,白毛的部分完全細化,用粗細來區分黑與白,但是效果並不理想。我們就不斷的提出設想,然後再次推翻,然後再提出。偶然間,我們幾個設計人員在欣賞、研究國外的精製紀念幣,發現英國的幣,也就是所謂精製幣,底面是非常亮的鏡面,而浮雕部分是噴砂的,有一次突然發覺底面的鏡面在某一種光線下發黑了,突然間恍然大悟。


同時我們也想到,在中國最傳統的石窟造像裡,也有一種將形象的某些凸出部分進行凹雕的處理,由於光線的反差也有顏色更深沉而產生浮凸的效果。國外的先進經驗和國內的傳統工藝共同啟迪了我們。

    
但是落實到熊貓金幣上怎麼做,又是一個大問題。我們把熊貓的四肢、眼、耳等需要做成黑色的部分凹刻下去跟底面一樣平,然後進行特殊的拋光磨亮,造成鏡面效果,正面看是黃金或白銀的本色,側面光線下就呈現出黑色的效果。對熊貓的其餘部分進行浮雕噴砂處理,這部分無法吸光,就呈現出黃金的本色。總結地說,就是鏡面拋光與噴砂凝霜,兩種工藝結合,這樣既有強烈的黑白對比感,同時又產生了柔和的皮毛質感,使熊貓的形象飽滿生動。

    
考慮成熟了,我就搞了一個石膏模,拿吳作人的一幅畫做了一個大膽的試驗,車間的師傅按照這個處理來做,只實驗一次,效果就很成功。中國早期熊貓金幣的“以凹作凸”就這樣成形了。凹刻法定位其實是從工藝需要配合的獨特雕刻手法,我們在做熊貓金幣的設計時必須考慮工藝,再去想用什麼雕刻表現手法來表現。

    
問:83年版熊貓金幣在設計上,和82版熊貓金幣最大的不同在什麼地方?

    
陳:82年版熊貓金幣出來以後反響很大,所以就決定繼續做83年版熊貓金幣。構思83版熊貓金幣之前,我們就去了上海動物園現場采風,對熊貓反復觀察,寫生繪畫,掌握熊貓的生理、生活特性。設計的時候要特別表現熊貓文靜的外表、好動的性格、嬌憨的動作、溫順中略透野氣的形象,要很生動,彷彿生活在熊貓幣裡一樣。

    
83年版熊貓金幣圖案選擇了熊貓在竹林間行走的動態,在形象、結構上處理得更美更活潑。而且在底部增加了一個“灰面”,使熊貓的黑白關係顯得更加突出、明朗。我還特別在熊貓形體輪廓上加了一條線,用中國傳統木刻創造的刀法技巧加以處理,突出熊貓的整體輪廓,視覺上更精確。熊貓毛髮的雕刻也用更加細密的線來表現,突出毛髮部分的實體感覺,取得了比較滿意的效果。 83年版熊貓金幣裡的熊貓形像不僅具有立體感,而且生動,富於變化。


 
第二部分沒有面值的82版和“偷”加了星光的83版


    
82版熊貓金幣雖然是國家認可的法定貨幣,但它沒有面值,反而有收藏者認為沒有面值的熊貓金幣更有價值,而83年版熊貓金幣上“偷”加的星光圖案,東西方不同文化對它理解產生很大差異,這可能也是早期熊貓幣裡比較有意思的兩個現象吧。


問:1982年版熊貓金幣是試制幣,很多收藏者對於它為什麼沒有面值,一直有很大的疑問?

    
陳:這也是別人問我最多的問題。幣當然應該有面值,沒有面值就變成章了,中國的金銀幣是代表國家的法定貨幣啊。

    
根據我的回憶,82版熊貓金幣最早的初稿上其實標了面值,因為我們做過建國三十週年紀念金幣和國際兒童年紀念金銀幣,也都有面值,熊貓幣當然也應該有面值。當時82版金幣的四個品種(編者註:1盎司、1/2盎司、1/4盎司、1/10盎司),面值都已經刻在了石膏模型上,最後定稿的時候還是拿下了。

    
面值怎麼定,是一個最大的問題,建國30週年紀念金幣的面值定了400元,當時金價下跌,就出現收藏者把這套幣拿到銀行來兌現的問題。當時沒有經驗,也不知道面值的標準到底應該怎麼定。當時南非福格林金幣已經出現了,它最大的特點就是無面值,因為它是法償貨幣,在其正反面均沒有紀錄面值,這樣做是為了強調每一枚金幣的價值是與它們所含純金的價值緊密相連的。既然南非福格林金幣不標面值也是法定貨幣,總行領導就拍板按照南非的辦法做。

    
但是82版熊貓金幣還是國家認可的法定貨幣,反而後面有收藏者認為沒有面值的熊貓金幣更有價值,這也是熊貓幣收藏裡一個很有意思的現象。因為後面的熊貓幣都有面值了,82版熊貓金幣反而“物以稀為貴”了。

    
問:設計83年版熊貓金幣時,有沒有特別讓您難忘的故事?

    
陳:有一個有意思的小故事可以告訴你們。如果你仔細觀察83年版熊貓金幣,你會發現上面有兩個小的星光圖案。最初圖稿上,幣面上方全是英文字母,後來設計圖稿畫完以後,審查環節覺得畫面太複雜,就放棄了英文字母,改用中文。但是我在做石膏模型的過程感覺畫面太空,就“偷”加了這兩個星光圖案。

    
當時審查環節也沒有現在也沒這麼嚴格,樣品已經出來了,送到了造幣局,審查的時候突然發覺和設計圖稿有了差異,但是因為當時著急要把樣幣送到美國熊貓公司,給海外經銷商看樣,所以就只能先把樣品帶去。沒想到海外經銷商覺得這個效果特別好,這個星光類似國外的十字架,有祈福、平安,與上帝同在的意思,結果海外市場銷售真的特別好。我的初衷是閃光的星星,結果被海外理解成十字架,這可能也是東西方不同文化差異反映在熊貓金幣上的一個特殊現象吧。


問:後來設計的熊貓金幣,還有沒有讓您記憶特別深刻的事情?

    
陳:後面設計87年版熊貓金幣的時候考慮到熊貓的坐姿也做過,走姿也做過,玩耍的姿態也做過了,就想設計出點新意,畫一個低頭飲水的姿態。但是想畫水紋就是畫不好,熊貓低頭飲水時它的頭怎麼一個傾斜角度,怎麼安排都不自然。所以86年去了四川臥龍基地和九寨溝進行現場實地采風,拍了很多照片,終於找到了靈感,才做出你們看到的那個姿態了,水紋也用更加裝飾風格的線條來處理, 效果比較理想。


 
第三部分熊貓金幣獲得國際大獎,為國家爭光


    
為國家爭光,為國家創外匯是一件特別光榮的事情。改革開放,中國開始在國際上展現出國家形像是83年版熊貓金幣獲獎的最大原因。不斷地求新求變,是熊貓幣最大的魅力。

    
問:1985年,在美國舉行的“國際年度硬幣比賽”中,您設計的83年版熊貓金幣榮膺“最佳金幣獎”,博得一片讚歎聲。美國《新聞周刊》載文稱讚83年版熊貓金幣“確實富有魅力,人們已經成了它的狂熱追求者”。在1986年的全國工藝美術品百花獎評比中,83年版熊貓金幣又獲得了百花獎中的“金盃獎”。作為它的設計者,感覺如何?

    
陳:為國家爭光,為國家創外匯是一件特別光榮的事情。改革開放,中國開始在國際上展現出國家形像是83年版熊貓金幣獲獎的最大原因。當時我們在上海造幣廠,除了給分幣改改年號,後來做毛澤東像章,基本就沒有其他事情可以做了。改革開放,經濟活躍了,我們也有了新的領域可以探索。熊貓金幣,改變了我們這一代設計師的命運。我還記得當年是中國駐美國大使館帶回了熊貓金幣獎狀,現在還留在檔案庫裡。

    
問:您覺得這套熊貓金幣獲得大獎的專業原因是什麼?

    
陳:我覺得獲獎的兩個原因,第一,熊貓象徵著友誼,和平,它的形象特別好,全世界都喜歡和歡迎熊貓的形象;第二,“凹刻法”是中國造幣人獨創的,這個工藝很新穎,讓世界造幣業眼前一亮。

    
熊貓金幣在世界上一露臉就受到巨大歡迎,不是無緣無故的。首先,它的圖案除了2001、2002年,每年的圖案都在變化;第二,國際上其他投資幣都是採用全噴砂,工藝相對比較簡單的普制幣,而我們用精製幣的工藝要求來做熊貓普制金幣,工藝處理上既有有鏡面拋光也有噴砂凝霜的,工藝處理非常繁瑣,視覺效果自然更精美;第三,不僅是圖案,我們的工藝也在不斷進步,早期是鏡面拋光,噴砂凝霜,而現在用反噴砂工藝,過去是鏡面拋光來表現熊貓的黑毛部分,現在是反噴砂來表現熊貓的黑毛效果,效果一樣,但是藝術上的呈現更加豐富多彩。不斷地求新求變,是熊貓金幣最大的魅力。


第四部分 影響我一生的熊貓情結

    
凡是參與過熊貓金幣發展歷程的人,都會對熊貓和熊貓金幣有一種特殊情結。

    
問:設計了這麼多的熊貓,您個人是不是特別喜愛熊貓?

    
陳:凡是參與過熊貓金幣發展歷程的人,都會對熊貓和熊貓金銀幣有一種特殊情結。我比較遺憾的是朱純德老師,他把一生的精力放在熊貓金幣這個事業上,做出了巨大的貢獻,可惜他過早地離開了我們了。我們一定不能而且要永遠記得他為熊貓金幣所作出的一切。

    
對我本人來說,當然很喜愛熊貓,我是因為喜歡它,才能設計出這麼多熊貓金幣。設計的時候我很愉悅,每次創作都能保持很興奮的狀態。即使在過程中有過很多挫折和困難,但是因為真的愛熊貓和熊貓金幣,再多的困難都可以迎難而上,無所畏懼。

    
到現在,我已經參與錢幣設計五十年了。退休後有時間了,就徹底把熊貓情結展現了出來。把自己收藏的小規格熊貓金幣,不管品相好不好,當成拓片素材,放在自己閒暇時的畫作上,為自己的晚年生活創造了很多樂趣。

    
我還發現了一個特別需要注意的事情。很多金幣圖錄上的熊貓金幣拍攝效果都不好,因為拍攝的人不了解熊貓金幣的特性,按照一般金幣的效果來拍,把熊貓的黑白部分或者沒有拍出來,或者拍反了,這真的是一個大大的遺憾。這是熊貓金幣最大的特點,如果了解它的人去拍,完全可以體現出來這種黑與白的效果。記得拍熊貓金幣時一定要用側光,把黑的部分表現出來。

    
問:作為設計熊貓金幣的先驅之一,您有什麼想對現在的設計師說的話麼?

    
陳:青出於藍勝於藍,長江後浪推前浪,現在新一代的設計師比我們要有想法、有作為。我有一個經驗可以提供給大家,要設計好熊貓金銀幣,一定要多去現場采風,對熊貓反復觀察,寫生繪畫,掌握熊貓的生理、生活特性,這樣設計出來的熊貓幣,既是真實的,也是生動的。
 
記者:遙石(文中僅為設計師個人觀點,並已經設計師本人確認)


 陳堅簡介




    
陳堅,字文龍,現任中國錢幣學會會員、上海錢幣學會理事、上海工藝美術學會大銅章藝術專委會顧問、徐悲鴻藝術研究協會畫師。 1941年出生於浙江紹興,1962年從上海市美術專科學校畢業,同年進入上海造幣廠(現改名為上海造幣有限公司),後被評為高級工藝美術師。
     

May Silver’s Precise Bounce Is Encouraging

Is the worst over for silver? From a technical standpoint, both the Comex futures and Silver Wheaton shares have done exactly what we might have expected of them if they were carving out a durable bottom. On Monday, the mining stock came with a single penny of a 27.97 correction target where we’d told subscribers to get long using an 8-cent stop-loss. Then, yesterday morning, May Silver futures trampolined from a low that lay just 1.5 cents from a correction target also identified using Hidden Pivot analysis. In both instances, powerful rallies began from within a hair of the targets, raising the odds that an important low is in. Our 29.940 price objective for the May Comex contract was flagged three weeks ago when the futures were trading above $31 an ounce. Yesterday’s explosive bounce from 29.925 carried them all the way to 30.740 — an 81-cent surge that would have been worth $4000 to any trader lucky enough to have caught the entire ride. 


As for Silver Wheaton, subscribers have been instructed to hold onto half of any shares they may have bought when the stock bottomed Monday at 27.96. Yesterday, tracking the ballistic move in bullion futures, Silver Wheaton traded for as much as 29.79. That represents a gain on paper of more than 8% in less than a week, since subscribers were told to take a partial profit near 28.61. With our cost basis effectively reduced to 27.47, we can afford to let our profits run. But will the move continue? It’s impossible to be sure. However, based on the energetic leap that these two silver vehicles have taken so far, we are encouraged to hold onto at least a small portion of our original position in Silver Wheaton for a potential four-bagger. We should note in the meantime that the stock is not yet out of the woods, technically speaking. By our Hidden Pivot runes, SLW will need to rally a further $2.44, topping a peak at $32.20 recorded on April 12, to turn the daily chart decisively bullish for the intermediate term. At that point, we’d say there’s at least a 40% chance that the correction begun almost exactly a year ago is over.

一名經人:五悶六悶七也悶 - 羅家聰



一名經人 - 羅家聰 2012年4月26日 看過加元與油價幾乎天衣無縫的關係,另一邊廂,傳統以為同屬商品貨幣的澳元,則受另一商品─金價所帶動。然而,自澳元浮動至今,走勢僅與金價「大致相似」,拼不成圖。 換而言之,金價雖可解釋過去十年的澳元升市,卻難解釋澳元的季度變化,更遑論是月內以至周內變動。

由此可見,知道甚麼因素重要,但了解怎用同樣重要。 觀圖亦見,澳元以季度計的周期變動,波幅比金價對數大。換句話說,炒中線者,宜選澳元多於金價。然則澳洲周初公佈的按年通脹由去年末季3.1%急跌至今年首季1.6%,減息憧憬似乎不利澳元。的確,金價亦在相似原因下轉弱。不過只要放長雙眼,環球央行狂放水而肥水不流負債地,無債務危機之地通脹易升難跌,金價澳元亦然。 甚麼歐債危機、中國硬着陸,講來講去美滙都無行單邊,來來去去都不出80±2。

但年初至今的上下對稱敏感三角下月將盡,怎看5月上至中旬要爆單邊,你道哪邊? 從經濟來看,應爆上邊;從Sell in May的迷信角度來看,也是爆上。但久經橫行、好淡皆疲,爆邊通常乏力,看來82還是穿與不穿之間。如是者,豈非五悶六悶七也悶?8月是傳統拆倉月,或來料矣。 


羅家聰 交通銀行香港分行市場部

金銀以外

終於實現當年的誠諾....50次..... 人年紀大了,身體情況只會變差,未來日了不知能否繼續下去.... 隨緣吧! 我佛慈悲..


教育短片: 捐血過程及血液處理影片

9,000 Contracts Dumped in 10 Min as Smash Enters 2nd Wave, Silver Takes Out $30

Absolutely classic smash in silver, as the 2nd wave of the pre-FOMC statement take-down has driven silver under strong support at $30 to $29.87. If silver cannot regain $30 and hold above it through today’s close, we are looking at a retest of $28-$28.50. An absolutely massive volume spike on spot silver’s volume chart as 9,000 contracts were dumped in 10 minutes to induce the spike low to $29.87.



9,000 contracts (45 million ounces) were dumped on the market in 10 minutes from 12:20 to 12:30 pm inducing the spike low to $29.87:

Local Hero Wild Theme

又到月底結算期,睇來銀價 點都要穿下30.
 聽下
Mark Knopfler solo

Sinclair - Shorts Now Trapped & Gold Could Gap Up to $3,000

On the heels of of the disclosure that China will buy oil from Iran using gold, legendary trader and investor, Jim Sinclair, told King World News that the massive paper gold shorts are now trapped and may see gold gap up to $3,000 if a vacuum in the physical market develops.  Sinclair described this event as “historic.”  But first, here is what Sinclair had to say about the recent trading action in gold: “You have seen in the last month, a phenomena.  If you have eyes in your head, you have to know when the gold banks enter into the gold market, offering more for sale than would be mined in the next five years, they are not in there to sell anything.  They are in there to manipulate the price.”
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Jim Sinclair continues:

“Well, we’ve seen some V-bottoms during daily operations, where they (manipulators) have forced gold (down) and it just snapped right back.  There is no question, it is a matter of record, that multiple central banks around the world have been large buyers of a significant amount of gold in the last two months.

As the paper speculators attempt to manipulate the price lower, they have run into the physical buyer who won’t let the physical market follow the paper market.  Who is giving gold a chance here?  Who’s talking positively about gold, except a very few? 

(Listening to Martin) Armstrong and financial TV, you would imagine that gold didn’t have a chance.  Yet every time the manipulators come in to reduce the price they are running into significant physical buying.... 



“At the same time, gold will be upgraded by its use in settlement by China and Iran.  This is a very significant change.

The physical market is overcoming the paper market, and gold is being used in huge amounts by a giant (China) in international commerce, in commercial settlement.  That’s news.  This is something that will go down in the history of gold, that very few have properly analyzed or understood at the present time.

There is a possibility that the physical market for gold, on the sell-side, meaning the ability to buy the physical market to cover against a paper short, might actually evaporate.  The people who are buying gold in the physical market, are not buying it for selling it tomorrow.

If you have $100 million, you would want $50 million in gold.  If you have $1 trillion, like some of our over the counter derivative specialists that got their money through TARP and the other programs, you might not want to keep all of that $1 trillion in paper.  Being the perps of worthless paper, they should certainly know the foundation of fiat currency, for their personal wealth, is a very weak foundation sitting in sand.

The type of buyers that central banks have been, could actually create a situation where the only supply coming in for gold would be new mining supply.  You could then get into an exogenous event, Israel versus Iran, there are many possibilities on this planet right now for an event coming out of nowhere with significant political implications.

You might be trading somewhere around $1,650.  How do you know you couldn’t open at $3,000 the next day if there was no way for this enormous paper short to cover itself (because) the physical market went into a vacuum?  The physical market is constantly in off-take, it’s not in supply.

You move toward a position where the risk of being short the metals is so high, that it’s untenable.  You’ve got the possibility of an exogenous event simply by mistake.  Would you want an exogenous event to create a shortage in the physical market (for gold), against a huge paper short (position), at a time when currencies, thanks to the use of SWIFT as a weapon, don’t really look like they have universal acceptability?

That’s right, they don’t have universal acceptability if you can’t transfer them.  This is one heck of a mess.  This is a huge development.  It’s something that is historic in the evolution of gold to the reserve currency of choice.”