2012年6月29日星期五

美債大限

 楊衛隆
美國經濟對香港樓市的影響可以說是最重要的外圍因素。我不將中國因素視為外圍因素,因為香港特區是中國的一部份。香港仍然實行與美元單一掛鈎的聯繫匯率,港元匯價和利率只能跟著美元走。另外,香港股市和美國股市基本上是同步升跌。美國經濟不好,香港樓市和股市也很難造好。

美國經濟去到2012年,其實是個爛攤子,美國經濟很大程度上依靠美國的政府開支撐下去。如果美國削減政府開支,美國經濟會急速惡化,就像急凍一樣。如果維持龐大赤字預算,讓美國赤字繼續失控,美國會出現比歐債危機更嚴重的主權債務危機。奧巴馬上任之後的5萬億赤字不可能以發鈔方法解決,因為這樣做會推高通脹數倍,甚至觸發超級通脹。所以,奧巴馬上任之後的赤字,主要是以發債方式填補。美國因為發債太多,已被評級機構下調主權信貸評級,奧巴馬成為首位丟失AAA主權信貸評級的美國總統。

2011年,美國國會就提高國債上限爭論不休,到了突破國債上限之後,美國政府停擺之前一刻才達成協議,但是附帶自動生效的2013年財政預算懸崖,即是根據財政預算法,成立12人委員會進行財政預算改革。如果這個委員會不能達成財政預算案,2013年美國會自動大幅度加稅和削減12,000億美元政府赤字。到了2012年6月中,這個委員會仍然沒有任何協議,談判亦無進展,可以說,越是談判,分歧越大。

原因非常簡單,美國如果大幅度削減福利,美國隨時會步希臘後塵,四處出現動亂。如果政府裁員,裁出來的人拿失業福利,又會推高失業率,打擊已經千瘡百孔的美國樓市和美國經濟。我也懷疑,美國政府如何能夠在一個財政年度之內,削赤12,000億美元。如果真的做得到,這次將會是人類史上最激烈的經濟緊縮。

由2012年的全球經濟形勢來看,這麼嚴重的緊縮有可能令到全世界陷入大蕭條。但美國真的要削赤12,000億美元才去到健康水平。國際公認的赤字標準是GDP的3%,對美國來說是4,500億美元,美國要削赤約9,000億美元才能達標。可是,削赤9,000億美元會拖低美國GDP,所以要進一步削赤至12,000億美元才能達標。不過,各位不必太擔心可怕的美國財政預算懸崖,因為除了財政預算懸崖之外,美國還有國債上限的難
關。

國債上限會在奧巴馬的龐大赤字預算令到美國不停地調高國債上限,美債上限像是樓梯級那樣,一級一級向上調。根據美國國債增長速度計算,16萬億美元的國際上限會在2012年8月破頂。如果不在8月之前提高國債上限,到時美國將會無法發債,政府就會停擺。2012年6月中,距離國債上限破頂之時,只有兩個月。美國國會之內,應該是兩黨坐下來處理國債上限的時候。

2012年是大選年,兩黨肯定會用提高國債上限這件事互相攻擊,很難和平解決。從政治的角度去看,這件事不會有好結果。從經濟的角度去看,如果美國提高國債上限,評級機構會降低美國主權信貸評級,提高美國政府的借貸成本。而且美債危機會打擊投資市場的信心。如果不能提高國債上限,美國政府立即停擺,美國經濟會遭到沉重打擊。8月將會是提高國債上限的最後期限,美債上限有機會變成美債大限。

美國Stockton 市破產

楊衛隆, 

美國加州Stockton市在星期二宣佈破產,是美國歷史上最大規模的城市破產。Stockton市即時停止債券還款。

說到欠款,Stockton市總欠債約7億美元,不算多,但是,美國的地方政府債券總金額達到37,000億美元,絕對比得上德國的GDP。Stockton市的緊縮亦嚴厲過希臘。過去兩三年,市政府劈掉一半公務員職位,1/3消防員和1/4警察。

Stockton市人口約30萬,在三藩市東南面約80英哩,即是大約130公里,由三藩市開車到Stockton需要約兩小時

Stockton市的最大經濟問題是樓價暴跌,但是各位不要以為那是金融海嘯時候的事。該市的斷供收樓潮高峰期是去年。2008年第一季,Stockton市是每30個住宅,有一宗收樓,去年是每18個住宅有一宗。

根據Zillow 住宅價格指數Zillow Home Value Index,Stockton市現在的住宅價格是12萬美元,2005年11月高峰期是37萬6千美元,對比高峰期,跌了超過6成。

三藩市樓價高峰期是78萬,現在約67萬,下跌不足兩成。其他灣區城市也是差不多,San Mateo市樓價高峰期是80萬現在是60萬。

參考資料:
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Stockton-home-value/r_7266/
從地產公司的方盤可以看到,Stockton市的頂級房產只是開價約70萬,即使幾英畝大的豪華大宅、有7個睡房,樓面面積一萬呎,叫價也是約70萬。

以下的放盤資料,五睡房大宅,土地面積1.54英畝、樓面面5,150平方呎,叫價71萬,按下larger photos 可以看到很多住宅的照片︰
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/9840-Oakwilde-Ave_Stockton_CA_95212_M10121-49406?source=web

如果想買便宜的住宅,這裡很多,兩萬美元有交易。
以來的放盤資料,叫價2萬5千美元,按下larger photos 可以看到很多住宅的照片︰
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/6706-Tam-O-Shanter-Dr-Spc-80_Stockton_CA_95210_M16515-42183?source=web

如果想知道更多該市放盤資料,請按以下連結,按下larger photos 可以看到很多住宅的照片︰
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Stockton_CA?source=web#/pg-3/sortby-1

這裡說的住宅物業不是那些流動房屋,也不是銀主盤或者短售,拍賣等交易,而是業主通過地產代理放盤的買賣。
這個城市除了住宅之外,幾乎一無所有,沒有三藩市的旅遊業,沒有矽谷的軟件工業。它沒有工作機會又離有工作機會的地方很遠。Stockton市的位置是加州大谷中央,以農業為主。2000年開始,Stockton市不努力搞好治安和教育,卻乘著次按的信貸泛濫,大力發展地產業,不是發展經濟。次按風暴爆發時,Stockton市的斷供收樓潮是全國最嚴重地區之一。

住在這個地方,找工作是最大困難,官方失業率一直維持約18%。實際失業率超過25%。因為失業率高,治安情況惡劣,曾經兩度登上福布斯的全美國最差城市。這件事告訴我們,開發大嶼山要先確保開發地區的工作機會,不要只是建造住宅,期望居民到區外工作。

今年年初, 加州人期望新的都市破產法AB 506會讓Stockton市通過與工會及債權人談判而避過破產命運。我替它埋過數,早就計算到它不能避免破產,因為赤字太大。今年的赤字大約2千多萬美元。不要以為這是小數目,Stockton市的主要收入來源--物業稅,一年只有約4千萬美元。事實證明,沒有錢還債,應該破產,亦只能夠破產,不要期望一條法律可以改變現實。現在,沒有人知道它的破產會否引發加州城市破產潮,更加不知道對美國地方政府債券市場的影響。

Weekend Report…A Comprehensive Look at The Chartology of Silver…


Rambus Chartology
 
 
26 June 2012
 
 
In the Wednesday stock report we took an indepth look at gold to see what the chart patterns were telling us. Tonight I want to look at silver as there is a chart pattern similar to the gold rectangle that no one is seeing at the moment. This pattern is very large and will have a major impact for the silver price going forward. Before we look at the bigger picture I want to bring everyone up to speed on the daily look that shows the chart patterns that have formed since the first of the year. The daily chart shows silver finally breaking down from the blue bear flag that has been forming since the middle of May. If you recall this pattern started out as a 5 point triangle reversal pattern that looked like it would workout to the upside when it had a big breakout gap on nice volume. The next day it gave back all its gains and looked like it was doing a backtest to the top rail of the triangle. I remember at the time, dragging the bottom rail up to the high made the day before. This showed you that silver could have a false breakout and to watch the potential for this pattern to morph into the blue bear flag that we now see as the correct chart pattern. Sometimes when you get a false move to the upside like silver had, and you can detect it early enough, you will get a good move in the opposite direction, in this case back down. The high point on the blue silver bear flag is what I’m talking about.
The thin red dashed line, on the chart above, shows the top rail of the triangle, with the big breakout that failed to materialize, and caught many traders by surprise when prices fell back below the red dashed rail.
This next chart is a weekly look that shows the blue expanding flat bottom triangle that no one is recognizing yet. You can see the bottom rail of this pattern is part of the big horizontal support zone, at 26, that has been in place since the end of 2010. I can’t stress enough how important the horizontal support rail at 26 is for silver. If silver breaks below, it will reverse it’s role and act as resistance on any rally attempt. You can see our little red bear flag that I showed you on the daily chart above that may be giving us a big clue that the bottom rail at 26 is going to fail. Another clue that the bottom support rail may break to the downside is that flat bottom triangles usually break through the horizontal rail, not always but most of the time.
Lets look at another weekly chart that goes back over five years to put everything into perspective. I’ve also added a downtrend channel that is expanding in nature. I’ve also labeled the reversal point for the expanding flat bottom triangle so you can see it is a completed pattern. You can also see the little red bear flag that has been forming on the bottom blue rail. If the bottom support rail breaks down I’ve extended a neckline extension rail that was made back in 2009 during the formation of that big H&S base that helped launch the huge rally to 50. The neckline extension rail would be the first logical place for silver to find some decent support.
The next chart I would like to show you is the long term look that goes back to the beginning of the bull market for silver. Its been in a very nice uptrend channel. The top rail off the major uptrend channel had to be moved one magnitude higher when silver went on its near parabolic run to 50. This is the same technique I showed you on the gold chart on the Wednesday Stock Report. You can see there is only one touch of the top rail that was put in place by the height of the measuring stick made off the upper black dashed rail. Silver could conceivably trade down to the bottom rail of the major uptrend channel and still be in it’s bull market.
The last chart I would like to show you leans toward the bullish side for silver. This chart goes back 30 years and takes in the top that was made back in 1980 at 50. There are two huge H&S bottoms that were made when silver was in it’s major bear market after the 1980 high. I’ve labeled each neckline on the H&S bases #1 and #2. First lets focus in on H&S #1 and how it fared. It broke the neckline in November of 2005 and reached it’s price objective at 19.92 in March of 2008. That high was made just before the 2008 crash began. As you can see the 2008 crash took the price of silver all the way down to just above 8 which was also the backtest to the neckline.
From that backtest low in 2008 silver started the rally that would take the price all the way back up to the 50 area. Now we need to focus in on neckline #2 that was broken to the upside in November of 2010. On the chart above I’ve labeled where we might see the backtest to neckline #2, brown area around the 22.50. The red arrows shows a 62% retrace of the entire bull market comes in around the 24 area.
Its going to be interesting to watch how things unfold and see if neckline #2 holds support like neckline #1 did. For me, this chart represents the most bullish aspect for silver because if neckline #2 holds, on a backtest, the second H&S base calls for a price objective to 130 or so. Stay tuned as things are really starting to get interesting for both the short term and the long term. All the best…Rambus