2012年10月12日星期五

COMEX 期貨報錯價... Silver at $34,000/oz, Gold at $17,700/oz

 可能真係有呢一日架

 

Freudian Glitch? COMEX Futures Lists Silver at $34,000/oz, Gold at $17,700/oz

 

Did COMEX futures just reveal a Freudian glitch?  Futures data this morning indicated a value of $34,000/oz for silver, and $17,716/oz for gold!

The misquoted prices reflect a 1:2 price ratio with silver being 2x as valuable as gold.  Was somebody trying to communicate the fact that future gold to silver value ratio will go from 50:1 to 1:2, with silver prices rising 100 times faster than gold’s?


http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/SILVER


Screen shot of concurrent gold glitch from ZH:



SD reader Plebian asks:
A ‘glitch’ in futures prices this morning showed charts with gold price quoted at $17,700/oz and silver at $34,000/oz.
Questions:
1) Why did glitches occur for both gold and silver, since they’re independent commodities traded on separate symbols?
2) Why was gold off by a factor of 10, but silver by a factor of 1,000?
3) The misquoted prices reflect a 1:2 price ratio with silver being 2x as valuable as gold.  Was somebody trying to communicate the fact that future gold to silver value ratio will go from 50:1 to 1:2, with silver prices rising 100 times faster than gold’s?


Thankfully for stackers, physical silver can still be acquired for ~$35/oz, and gold under $1900/oz.
One day soon such a COMEX quote might not be a ‘glitch’.

Got silver??
  

Original Source 

 

Silver Demand Rolls On



I'm probably not the first person, nor will I be the last, to show you that silver demand is probably the key to silver prices exploding. About two thirds of this demand comes from industry.
The rest of demand comes from jewelry and recycling. Investment represents a very small portion of the demand for silver.

Industrial Demand

Unlike gold, silver is an industrial commodity. The basic scientific properties of silver make it a candidate for use in an ever-growing variety of devices and applications, from computer chips to solar power generators.Because silver is an industrial commodity, it is a candidate for an industrial shortage. The world’s industrial consumers hold little in the way of silver inventories, thanks to just-in-time inventory and production practices.
As we’ve discussed elsewhere on this site, 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct to other types of mining, such as copper, lead and zinc. The mining industry is simply incapable of keeping up with the current demand for silver.


[silver demand]
Given that we already have a widespread retail silver shortage, a wholesale shortage is likely as well. When industrial users face delays in silver shipments they will panic and attempt to build inventories all at once. This situation unique to silver—it does not apply to gold.
In the current financial crisis, there is a profound and very powerful advantage to silver being an industrial commodity. The mainstream has forgotten about silver as a monetary metal. The new generation, and possibly even you, has only a fleeting association between silver and value.
However, in the face of declining dollar values, and as the supply/demand characteristics of silver become more widely understood, more and more people will begin to discover how you can't go wrong with silver rounds, silver eagles, or 90% (junk) silver. As stated before, silver demand is negligible, yet growing, for investment.

Demand for jewelry could easily switch from gold as gold prices move higher (which is likely, but for other reasons). Industrial demand, no matter what happens with the dollar, will continue to use more silver than is being produced.

You can investigate the supply-side argument here


Also, read about why silver demand fundamentals will cause prices to diverge from gold here.

Price Manipulation

This will not just take place here in the U.S., but everywhere, and especially in the BRIC nations. Some say we will see a global slowdown or transfer of wealth from West to East. This would also drive up commodity prices as these places demand fuel for growth and therefore increasing overall silver demand. 


[silver demand]















The motivation to manipulate silver prices will not cease under these circumstances, but the ability to do so will be diminished—most likely when industry players realize a shortage. It’s likely that they will hoard all the way into to the hundreds per ounce.
In fact, perhaps this is already happening, as evidenced by silver eagle shortages and a general scarcity of physical investment silver. Again, the key is that industrial silver demand is inelastic, but the world simply does not produce enough silver to keep up. A shortage will wipe out any remaining ability to manipulate prices by keeping shorts significantly under water.
The inevitable spike in price may very likely cause default in the silver futures markets, which will add volatility to the explosion. Today's silver prices will look unbelievably cheap.

羅姆尼大有希望啊!

 劉軍洛

 2012-10-09


(一)國慶長假期間,看來美國用QE3指揮中國人搶購黃金的數量相當的成功——“高位金價難抵假日“淘金熱”買金痛快堪比買白菜”;“QE3水漲船高銀行趁勢力推黃金投資金條最穩健”。


(二)長假期間,全球股市表象的夕陽無限好,不過,國內貨幣政策還是保持高度緊縮將可能覆蓋整個10月份。注意,下周國內股市很可能是大殺“多頭”。


(三)羅姆尼在美國總統首場電視辯論中的結果,正如本人事先預期的那麼富有戲劇性。路透社和益普索聯合民調顯示,至2012年10月5日時,奧巴馬和羅姆尼的支持率分別為46%和44%。而在3日的民調中,奧巴馬還領先羅姆尼6個百分點。預計16日電視辯論中羅姆尼小胜;22日電視辯論中羅姆尼大勝。


我看好羅姆尼的原因是,因為羅姆尼將是美國2013年系統性經濟政策的最佳執行者。而如果是奧巴馬繼續連任,那麼,對於2013年上半年美國經濟和中國經濟的運行關係就存在非常大的欠缺。


(四)美國勞工部2012年10月5日公佈的數據顯示,美國9月非農就業人數增加了11.4萬,而失業率意外降至7.8%,創下近4年新低。此前市場預期,非農就業人數增加11.5萬,失業率升至8.2%。而且美國8月非農就業人數修正後為增長14.2萬人,初值為增長9.6萬人,上修幅度將近50%。全球政客們的基本功都是——謊言+忽悠。要知道,上個月9月14日是美國央行推出QE3。為什麼,美國央行要推出QE3?因為,美國經濟不好。現在,美國統計局連8月份的美國就業人數都大幅度向上修改了,那伯南克在9月14日會不知道具體的美國8月份的真實就業情況嗎?現在,要么是伯南克是太愚蠢,沒有判斷出20天后,美國經濟原來是這麼的好;要么就是美國統計局造假。


  網友中泰問:劉老師你好!有幾點不成熟的想法。 1)黃金是美國要套利中國,下跌是無懸念的(因為到時中國欠外國資本集團美元時,黃金作為抵押物,既然是抵押物以美元計價的黃金不會作高價,肯定是低價的)。 2)國內期貨做空黃金,(因為我沒法外盤做空黃金)外盤下跌,國內盤同樣同等幅度的下跌。 (因為在國內央行手上5000~6000億美元沒掏空以前,人民幣與美元的匯率應該不會大貶值,這樣是符合國內權貴和美國的利益)。 3)一旦公佈外匯儲備大幅下滑(可能不會公佈)或者看到那家銀行要倒閉的新聞,停止國內盤做空黃金,因為人民幣要大幅貶值了。以上3點望老師指正,謝謝!


回复:因為,黃金崩盤(內盤和外盤都是同樣同等幅度的下跌)才會引發國內的結構性危機。中石油上市時候的流通市值在1500億人民幣,但是,正是中石油特點時間段的上市,引發了國內股市從正常需求的大調整演變成股市大崩盤。目前,國內黃金現貨、黃金期貨、紙黃金和黃金衍生品的量應該不低於1萬億人民幣,國內黃金多頭成本在1500美元~1900美元。


我預計最遲2013年第三季度人民幣貶值,如果,中國央行確實是拼命推移到那個時間段,人民幣貶值那就應該是一次性貶值不低於40%。人民幣如果發生一次性貶值,國內所有期貨都可能在一次性貶值後的2~3月時間全部關閉。



網友葉子_19問:劉老師,有一個問題想請您給解答一下,如果大多數人(能夠達到一定的數量級)能夠按照您的預測,將美元握在手裡,並且妥善保存,不至於出現阿根廷的那種情形,那到時,社會現狀會是怎樣呢?會是平穩度過嗎?葉利欽們也就失敗了嗎?


回复:如果,我們大量中產階級能夠大量持有美元,那麼,葉利欽們肯定失敗,並且,未來上“斷頭台”。這就像我在2011年5月出版的《中國中產階級和葉利欽》一書中,講的過程一樣:“更讓人感到困惑和恐慌的是,為什麼俄羅斯的石油產量和糧食產量在1989年~ 1990年達到最好水平時,俄羅斯經濟卻發生了大崩盤?1989年,前蘇聯的糧食總產量3.2億噸,俄羅斯的糧食產量是1.1億萬噸。2008年俄羅斯糧食產量8000萬噸,2010年俄羅斯糧食產量是6900萬噸左右。也就是,1989年俄羅斯糧食產量要高於現在3000萬~4000萬噸。更重要的是,2008年~2009年俄羅斯還是全球出口糧食的重要供應商。可見, 1989年~1990年俄羅斯糧食產量和石油產量如此高的情況下,1991年後俄羅斯爆發的食品危機是一個讓人感到困惑和恐慌問題?這是,俄羅斯的曾經的核心問題,但卻是今天中國的核心問題。” 摘自《中國中產階級和葉利欽》


所以,股市3000點的時候,我在出版《中國中產階級和葉利欽》一書的時候,講的非常清楚,葉利欽們——將在2012年底,讓中國股市下跌到2000點。現實中,我們不僅僅看到中國股市被有計劃的打到2000點。同時,中國央行裝瘋賣傻在1.35的匯率水平購買了8000億~10000億美元的垃圾歐洲債券。還有,中國媒體和中國經濟學家們讓中國大量普通人,在黃金的歷史性高位,成為了黃金的持有者。所以,股市2013年底人為製造到1000點的時候,再加上屆時人為製造人民幣匯率的崩盤,中國股民們屆時就將是葉利欽們推動中國社會改革的工具和炮灰了。

劉軍洛--回復新浪微博網友QE4的威力

劉軍洛

2012-09-28
網友:今天摩根士丹利策略師24日發布報告,詳細分析了QE(量化寬鬆政策)對股市的影響。他表示,如果經濟繼續惡化,美聯儲可能會在年底推出QE4:QE3對於股市的提振力度可能還不夠,如果聯儲年底的時候推出QE4,一點也不令人奇怪。尤其是如果經濟和公司的消息像過去幾週那樣持續惡化。請問劉老師怎麼看。謝謝

 
回复:24日的摩根士丹利策略師的報告中,很重要一點就是美國伯南克的QE3規模不夠(摩根斯坦利:美聯儲或年底推出QE4)。我8月10日新浪微博的話如下:“下個月,伯南克的QE3很可能推出,現在,唯一沒有懸念的是,QE3的規模會讓大部分人感到嚴重的失望。


”所以,QE3推出後,全球交易市場的許多品種和中國股市是立刻發生了暴跌。前兩天,我發表的微博指出——11月份~12月份美國股市很可能發生大暴跌。所以,我已經預計了美國伯南克必定會有QE3.5或者是QE4。

 但是,QE3.5或者是QE4的推出必定是全球交易市場發生大暴跌後,才會推出的。現在中國的問題是,我8月10日說伯南克將要推出的QE3規模或力度肯定不夠,是準備玩弄全球和中國。這被中國人稱之“陰謀論”。 

現在,9月24日美國人說伯南克的QE3規模或力度是不夠的。這是被中國人叫成“經濟學”。難道,美國的伯​​南克不知道這次自己設計的QE3的規模或力度是遠遠不夠的嗎?所以,11月份~12月份如果全球市場發生大暴跌,那伯南克能不知道是自己一手導演的嗎?

我預計明年1月份~2月份,美國的伯​​南克將推出QE3.5或者是QE4,而QE3.5或者是QE4的重點將是——伯南克把美國0.25%的銀行業的超級儲備金率降低到零。




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