2012年10月17日星期三

德銀:明年黃金價格將突破2200美元




新浪財經訊北京時間10月2日下午消息,據外電報導,德意志銀行週二上調了對2013年和2014年金銀價格的預期,同時引證了來自美聯儲等央行所採取刺激措施的支撐。 

德銀將2013年的黃金(1745.90,-0.40,-0.02%)價格預期上調3%至2113美元/盎司,同時將2014年的金價展望上調11.1%至2000美元/盎司。

 德銀表示,明年黃金價格將超過2200美元/盎司。同樣,德銀將2013年的銀價預期提高3%至44美元/盎司,將2014年的預期提高11.1%至40美元/盎司。

 德銀表示,貴金屬價格的主要支撐因素是最近全球主要央行採取的擴張資產負債表的舉措。 

鑑於黃金通常被認為是寬鬆貨幣政策時期對沖貨幣貶值和通脹的保值資產,因此這些舉動將提振投資者對黃金的青睞。 

德銀分析師邁克爾-路易斯(Michael Lewis)表示:“我們相信央行舉措將刺激增長,避免通貨緊縮並減少系統性風險對於貴金屬板塊尤其是黃金的看漲是不言而喻的。”他補充道:“自2011年年初我們一直將黃金價格定位為升至2000美元/盎司之上,我們相信美聯儲上月宣布的開放式QE項目增加了我們的信心——金價升至這一水平僅是時間問題。

”(史歌)

Silver shorts are everywhere!!!





A down day for silver, and there are a lot of traders and hedge funds making some fiat. there is nothing wrong with shorting, even on silver! What might be wrong (if it is really happening) is the US Treasury or Federal Reserve manipulating silver by hiring JP Morgan et al to buy massive amounts of naked shorts. What is wrong is governments manipulating markets. But there is nothing wrong with speculators making money (or losing it) in the market!Silver opportunity only exist because of the excessive paper leverage, huge short position and price manipulation to down side. Best way to capitalize on that is to buy physical silver and sit tight. Cheaper physical OZ are sold more profit you will make, thanks to all silver manipulators. 

MAKE SURE YOU GET PHYSICAL SILVER IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION. Don't Buy SLV, or Futures or Pooled Accounts or any other BS paper silver product .Remember anything on paper is worth the paper it is written on. Go Long Stay long the bull market have even started yet

Silver is Still Cheaper than it was 32 Years ago

“Consider this: Silver is the only major commodity not to have reached a new all-time high in this bull market; silver is still cheaper than it was 32 years ago, prices are astonishingly depressed,” Peter Cooper wrote for Resource Investor. [Silver ETFs Not Shining in 2012]

Jim Rogers Doubts Any Silver Market Manipulation




Daily Bell: The CFTC just dropped an investigation into silver manipulation. Is it manipulated day-to-day and does it matter?

Jim Rogers: 

A) It doesn't matter and B) I don't think it is. There are conspiracy theorists out there who say it's manipulated but I don't buy it. Mainly, I don't buy it because if it were manipulated like the conspiracy theorists say, it's been going on for 25 or 30 years. By now somebody would have told us. You can't keep a secret like that because then the conspirers would have to be all over the world. There would have to be tens of thousands of people. By now we would know about it. I'm a little skeptical.

It doesn't matter, as far as I'm concerned. Silver is going to go much higher. I own silver and if there's somebody trying to artificially suppress it, more power to them because in the end it's going to go up even higher. Whenever you artificially suppress something, once it finally breaks free, boy, does it skyrocket. Look at gold in the '70s. They artificially kept it down at $35 for a few decades. Finally the market said enough and it went up over 40 times. - in Daily Bell






Jim Rogers : Gold & Silver will both go much, much higher over the course of the bull market. The bull market has years to go 

 

Daily Bell: Hello, again. Let's jump right in. Where is gold headed – US$5000 an ounce? Is silver headed toward US$350?

Jim Rogers: I'm not smart enough to know something like that. I own gold and silver and there are a lot of bulls right now. If you look at open interest and see all the speculators who own gold and silver, that's usually a worrisome sign. I mean, I am not selling my gold and silver, I assure you, but I do worry about all these speculators getting in the market.

Gold and silver will both go much, much higher over the course of the bull market. The bull market has years to go. How high it will go, I don't know, but maybe read your newsletter – I read it everyday – and so read your newsletter and you will find out where gold and silver are going. I'm not smart enough to know things like that. - in Daily Bell

王冠一財經專欄:置身事外依然固我

財經 - 環球經濟
王冠一
2012/10/16, 週二
對投資者而言,美國聯邦儲備局每推出新一輪量寬,皆意味資產再升值的契機,對量寬的態度當然無任歡迎,愈多愈好。但對新興市場國家的政府官員則未必,尤其對於出口型經濟的新興國家,美國量寬引發熱錢四處流竄,新興市場貨幣匯價往往首當其衝,不利出口復蘇。

剛剛在日本舉行的國際貨幣基金年會上,曾經以提出「匯率戰爭」〔Currency War〕一炮而紅的巴西財長曼特加,再度發難,針對聯儲局最近推出的QE3(無限期定額買入按揭抵押證券),認為美國再一次透過壓低美元匯價,試圖動搖新興市場國家得來不易的經濟成就。

曼特加的理據其實不見得有何新意,總體上包括兩點:
1.已發展國家藉寬鬆政策令貨幣貶值,試圖跟新興市場國家搶出口;

2.製造熱錢衝擊新興市場,因投資者預期美元轉弱而沽售美元,買入新興市場貨幣套息兼「博升值」,結果導致新興市場國家的資產快速升值,造成泡沫與通脹。

曼特加茅頭直指與會者之一的聯儲局主席伯南克,暗示美國把自己的快樂建築在別國的痛苦之上。不過,伯南克以一貫從容不迫的態度應對。

伯南克一副鱷魚淚相,表示對新興市場國家面對熱錢流入衝擊深表同情,但堅持QE3沒有錯。他反駁理據跟曼特加一樣,其實沒甚麼精闢之處,例如:

1.美國好,大家好,因為QE3有助美國經濟復蘇,刺激美國消費,自然有助改善國際貿易,令全球受惠;

2.新興市場國家本身匯率欠彈性,是招惹熱錢的誘因。新興市場只顧捍衛出口,刻意壓抑匯率升值,當然會招惹熱錢「炒升值」;對此,最佳的辦法應該是及早升值,這樣才能有效擊退熱錢;

3.歐元區危機引發避險資金外逃,流向值博率相對較高的新興市場,無可厚非;

4.根據沒證據顯示,已發展國家的寬鬆貨幣環境,直接增加新興國家的成本。

伯南克出名能言善辯。更重要的是,會中不少重量級人物,例如國基會總裁拉加德、日本特命擔當大臣前原誠司,雙雙力撐伯南克。拉加德認為,美、歐、日等央行主動放寬銀根,方向正確;前原誠司則認為QE3跟資本流向新興市場根本沒有關聯。

美 國的「My dollar, your problem」(我的美元,你的問題)思維從來沒變。外界任何關於美元政策的指摘,都不可能動搖美國國策的根本。新興市場國家在國基會的影響力愈來愈 大,拉加德本應為新興市場國家利益發言才對。事實證明,新興市場國家怎樣努力,都好難爭取到國基會為自己發聲。

但說句公道話,伯南克的 反駁亦不無道理。雖說美國量寬令新興市場國家通脹升溫、資產價格暴漲,但美國本身通脹一直未成氣候。何解?難道美元區資金大規模外逃?這又不是,否則美國 資產價格應該承受很大壓力。這證明了聯儲局QE3新印美鈔根本沒有亦不會流出「大街」,新興市場出現資產泡沫與通脹,純粹只是QE3的副產品,是由於投資 者的美元貶值預期,加速了資本流向所致。

不過,這並不代表美國沒有興波作浪的責任。伯南克高明之處,即在這裡。

王冠一

Should You Store Gold Overseas? International Gold Storage Options

GOLDSILVER.COM,見議儲存金銀的地點中,

 香港是其中一個安全的地方....
 

These days, you don’t have to be Auric Goldfinger to buy, ship, and store your gold overseas.  
With prevailing uncertainty in the world's political climate and the possibility of increased regulation, international gold storage is today more common and accessible than you might think.  
With a few clicks of a mouse, you can secure your precious metals at an overseas, fully insured depository at locations as geographically and geopolitically diverse as Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, and Canada.
Yet, when considering international gold storage, many investors often overlook important factors, which could not only impact the cost, but the total outcome of your investment.
When contemplating an international gold vault, use the strategic steps below to determine if international gold storage is right for you.
 

***

Understand the Pros and Cons of International Gold Storage
1) Factor in the shipping and insurance to get your precious metals to their storage destination.
a) When you purchase gold bullion, you will most likely pay the shipping and insurance to get your metals to the gold storage facility of your choice.  Even when you sell your precious metals at a later date, you will most likely need to pay for shipping and insurance to get your gold bullion back to your dealer before being paid in full.
 
2) Determine your monthly storage fees specific to your gold vault storage facility.
Gold storage pricing models will vary based on account value, metal type, ounces in storage, or combinations of these. 
 In most cases, there is going to be a charge for gold storage and a separate charge for storing silver bullion storage, so determine your potential fees with this factor in mind.
a) Try and understand your potential storage fees in the future by factoring in what your estimated overall storage fees could be if your metals were to grow to the desired value you aspire.
b) If you plan on accumulating ounces over time, then you should factor in an estimation of what the potential value could be based on your goals.
c) Your gold storage account is your ultimate safe haven money.  It is best to choose a third party segregated vault storage facility where your payments are due in dying fiat currencies. Your safe haven bullion holdings should not be siphoned away in fractionalized ounce or gram fees.
 
3) Define what percentage of your investment you want to be in gold bullion and or silver bullion.
For example:  
If you have $25,000 and want to purchase 500 coins of the American Silver Eagles (valued at approx. $ 19,000 today) and use the balance (approx >$6,000) to buy 3 American Gold Eagle coins, then depending on where you store your metals it could cost you a minimum of $60 per month in storage fees, or $720 annually.
Therefore, determine if you really want to pay storage fees for 3 gold coins or consider securing them yourself as securing gold is very doable as it does not occupy much space in comparison to silver.      
Making prudent, cost benefit analysis-based decisions, could help you to minimize your storage payments. 
 
4) Consider potential customs / duties / taxes associated with international delivery.
Verify if there are going to be any potential customs / duties / taxes once the metals are shipped into the destined country as well as when they are shipped back into another country when you sell.  Some countries may have a Values Added Taxes (VAT) or a Goods and Service Tax (GST) or other forms of fees; take initiative to understand if there are any taxes / fees you will be responsible for.
 
5) Consider your budget overall.
The capital you have to purchase bullion with can have an impact on your decision as well.  Factor in your costs for such a plan.
 
If you have limited funds, the alternative is to figure out how to secure the metals yourself.   For some potential ideas on home storage, see How to Store Gold At Home.
Mike Maloney says in his book Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, page 193: "One of the things I love most about buying physical gold and silver for storage at home, segregated storage at a depository, and/or offshore storage in an allocated account, is that you are not playing their game, meaning the corporate financial industry game.  Instead you are keeping your money and your investments private, away from prying eyes.  You know that what you have in your possession is real.  You can touch it.  And best of all, it's real money"
 
For a limited time get FREE SHIPPING on Singapore vault orders!

Use Referral Code: The New Switzerland

Expiration: November 9, 2012

 
If you are a first-time investor you may want to consider the following plan: 

I)

First consider taking some physical possession of your metals.  
Taking delivery helps you understand the process of how to order and the steps involved. Once you hold physical bullion in your hand, you get a better grasp of the weight, look, and feel of genuine gold and or silver. 
II)  
Once you have accumulated, first hand, the amount you feel comfortable with,  you can then consider graduating to storage either within our domestic United States and or Internationally.  GoldSilver.com currently offers six segregated bullion vault options.  
There are three Master / Sub-account vaults located in Salt Lake City, Hong Kong, and Singapore.    There are also three direct segregated vault options with Via Mat Germany, Via Mat Miami, and Cube Global Storage in Canada.  Contact your GoldSilver.com representative for further information. 

III)  

Once you have acquired enough gold bullion in one vault storage facility, you might then consider geopolitically diversifying your risk by choosing another vault storage option in another country or geographic location.
This overall plan can both offer diversification of location and custodians, giving you multiple storage sites and ultimately minimizing your overall risks.   
Remember to always educate yourself before taking action to ensure you make an informed decision.

Kitco Receives 4th Bankruptcy Extension

Judge Mark Schrager has granted Kitco Metals a 4th bankruptcy extension until June 26th, 2013.  Kitco’s 3rd extension expired 10/17/12, meaning Kitco faced liquidation had the judge failed to again extend the proceedings. The judge also authorized Kitco to solicit financing, and pay several large invoices to Attitude Montreal, Inc. 


Judge Schrager’s full ruling can be found at the link below:

http://www.rsmrichter.com/downloads/pdf/insolvency_files/rcaseid233/34-Order%20for%20a%20fourth%20extension%20of%20the%20initial%20order.pdf