2012年12月22日星期六

時光倒流 黃金當錢使?

面對全球經濟不穩,瑞士、奧地利、德國的投資者,近期開始買入一種「黃金貨幣」。該產品由50格重1克的黃金組成,大約信用卡大小,以防歐元解體或幣值波動不穩時,可用作貨幣使用。

這種名為CombiBars的「黃金貨幣」,又被稱為「朱古力條」,可以很容易折斷每1格使用。負責銷售該產品的瑞士公司表示,製作CombiBars,因為想將貴金屬由純粹投資產品,改變成為付款產品使用。該公司又指,自2001年以來,黃金價格已經上漲近500%,同期世界股票也只是增長12%,所以認為在歐元區充滿危機的時候,黃金是有需求性的。

不過,一些銀行基金經理仍對有關做法抱懷疑態度,認為黃金是一種儲存的價值,用作付款是不合適。

英國《每日郵報》


http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/realtime/international/20121222/51194889

央行購金潮持續,巴西黃金儲備3個月翻番

儘管過去一年多里,金價經歷了大起大落(特別是去年下半年),但有一種因素卻一直在支撐金價,那就是:央行購金。我們已提過多次,新興市場央行正在買入黃金來分散外匯儲備,減少對美元和歐元的依賴。現在,巴西就是一個最新例子。
過去三個月裡,巴西的黃金儲備上番了一倍,至12年最高水平。
來自彭博社:









    
根據IMF網站的數據,巴西黃金儲備11月增加14.7噸,至67.2噸。

    
巴西今年9月增持黃金1.7噸,為自2008年以來的首次增持。 10月份,巴西購買了17.2噸黃金。

    
同樣在11月增加黃金儲備的,還有俄羅斯和白俄羅斯,分別增持2.9噸和1.4噸。但土耳其11月黃金儲備較上月減少5.9噸,墨西哥減少0.1噸。

金價跌破200日均線 四季度走勢創2004年來表現最差

昨晚金價繼續重挫,晚間10點30分美國公佈第三季度GDP增長3.1%,超過分析師此前2.8%的預期,市場解讀為美國經濟逐步復甦,則美聯儲未來的寬鬆政策(盯住失業率和通脹目標)火力將有所下降;而且經濟增長意味著風險資產收益率將上揚,從而削弱金價的避險魅力並增加持有黃金的機會成本。 GDP數據公佈後,金價立即跌穿200日均線的重要中期支撐位。隨後一路下探,日間低點$1635,尾盤收報$1647.35。

技術上看,本周金價下跌體現出的負面意味較濃:自2009年起,200日均線對金價一直起到良好的支撐作用,今年3月份跌破200日均線後,歷經5個月的調整才再次站在200日均線上方。昨日金價跌破200日均線所在的$1761價位後,繼續下探,並跌破8月低點$1647。自此QE3和QE4帶來的漲幅已經基本被抹殺殆盡。


基本面上,近期來自幾個黃金需求“大戶”一直保持著旺盛的需求:中印逢黃金需求旺季,近期ETF規模連創歷史新高,昨日IMF公佈的數據顯示11月份巴西增持黃金14.68噸,伊拉克自8月份以來央行黃金儲備自5.8噸增加大31.06噸。因此,黃金的大幅下挫難以用基本面解釋,而用投機者近期的行為解釋更為有利:基金臨近年末平倉,某基金面臨清償壓力,算法交易以及旨在打壓止損單的stop loss hunter都加大了金價的拋壓。

Maguire - Shocking $2.89 Premium For Physical Silver In China





After boldly calling for a bottom in the gold and silver markets yesterday, today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that the premium for physical silver expanded to shocking and “unprecedented” levels in China.  Maguire also spoke with King World News about the challenges the shorts are now facing in both the gold and silver markets.  


This is the fourth in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting the curtain on what is going on behind the scenes in the gold and silver war.
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Eric King:  “Andrew, yesterday you were saying we had hit a bottom, and certainly the markets are acting that way with gold up around $10.  Your thoughts here because I think for some people it felt like the end of the world on that (recent) price drop.”


Maguire: “Well, Eric, the difference today is number one, note that the dollar has not been under attack.  So you don’t really have any government intervention (in gold) today.  You’ve also got central bank buying that has come in (to the gold market) in very large size....

“It’s (central bank buying is) really forcing bullion banks to go on the bid.  So you’ve got a bit of a perfect storm there.  I think the risk to the shorts here is if they cannot defend this 200 day moving average, which is currently around the $1,663 area (capping the upside advance), then we will see some technical damage (this time) to the upside.

We’re running into the end of the year.  We predicted there would be some short position squaring into the end of the year, but I would have thought they would have liked to do that closer to the end of the year.  If they (commercials) fail to hold gold (below the 200 day moving average), then (as I said) the technical damage will be done to the upside (this time).”

Maguire also added: “One of the things I wanted to talk to you about today was something I saw in Shanghai early this morning.  Eric, I had to double-check, in fact I had to triple-check.  We’re talking about the kind of divergence (in the physical market) now that’s unprecedented.

Today I looked at the opening premiums and there was a $2.89 disparity in silver.  I’m not talking gold.  When spot silver was trading in London at $29.61, silver actually traded at $32.50 (in Shanghai). 

If you take an equivalent Comex contract, and I realize spot isn’t Comex, but if you take an equivalent 5,000 ounce Comex contract, that equates to a $14,430 premium per contract.  I mean it’s ludicrous.  There are reasons why you may or may not have a premium in Shanghai, but not to that extreme.

Shanghai (softened but) still closed at a $6,100 premium to equivalent Comex contracts.  So what we’re saying here is that the divergence has now become ridiculous.  I mean these high and low closing premiums literally illustrate the massive divergence between the paper market (and the physical market).

And, Eric, this is on an exchange (Shanghai) that within the next two years is actually going to become the world hub of physical gold and silver trading.  It’s going to have its own fixes.  So I think they (the manipulators) really pushed it a little too far today.

You’ve (also) got the short-selling algorithms, and they have absolutely no or little if any input relating to the physical market.  So if this price turns against them, they are not going to understand why it has turned.  They won’t understand the fact that central banks have been buying 6, 12, 20 (tons of gold), and I still haven’t even got the numbers for today, but there was very large physical take-up (today as well).

So when it (price) turns, they are not going to understand what’s happened, they will just follow it.  But the concern to the bullion banks (here) is they are fully aware of the physical drain, and I absolutely guarantee you that they are going long on this final stage of the selloff.

Price up to now has really been assisted by (US) government defense of the dollar in the over-the-counter FX gold markets, but the central banks (out of the East) and the bullion banks are (now) jointly buying this discount.”

This is the fourth in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting the curtain on what is going on behind the scenes in the gold and silver war.  There is an incredible amount of information which has not been included in these short write-ups.  The eagerly anticipated KWN audio interview with Andrew Maguire is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.