2013年2月18日星期一

摩根士丹利:1930年代貨幣戰的教訓(二)

1930年代的貨幣戰可能重演嗎?摩根士丹利認為,要回答這個問題,先要了解當前形勢和歷史先例有哪些重要的差異和相似之處。
 
差異在於,現在大多數主要貨幣匯率靈活,所以大幅貨幣波動的可能性應該更低。
 
而且,幾年前激起劇烈政策反應的極端尾部風險也已減弱。
 
相似在於,都是源於國內問題,而且都產生了以鄰為壑的影響。
 
日本的決策者如今渴望重振出口導向型經濟,這或許意味著日元將可能發揮重要作用。
 
但在全球需求疲弱的環境下,日本依托日元疲弱增加出口或許就是在其他出口國家的虎口奪食,將招致遏制日元大幅走低的措施。
 
這種負面的溢出等同於1930年代的以鄰為壑政策。
 
假如當真爆發那樣的貨幣戰,將可能怎樣一步步發生?
 
摩根士丹利預計將會以這樣的順序呈現在大家面前:


    
起點:日本決策者以日元疲弱作為增強出口業的重要支柱,遵循復興日本經濟的協調行動計劃。



    
全球主要央行進一步寬鬆:歐洲央行和/或美聯儲因金融環境惡化進一步寬鬆。



    
新興經濟體資本​​管制:隨著資本流入增加、日元繼續走低,一些除日本外亞洲經濟體和拉美經濟體決定實行資本管制。



    
日本決策者對日元走強做出回應:為了保證出口競爭力,日本決策者進一步加碼讓日元貶值。

 
現在我們處於什麼階段?
 
上述事件的關鍵變量是日本決策者的反應。
 
如果日元更加疲弱實際上是日本政府計劃的重要部分,如果他們有強烈的意願要確保日元始終疲弱,那麼貨幣戰的風險就比過去的高。
 
近期歐美的風險仍存在,也有貨幣刺激時間延長甚至加強的可能。
 
在除日本外的亞洲國家之中,日本的出口競爭對手可能採取多種對策,如口頭乾預、外匯干預、資本管制和下調政策利率。不過最後一種方法的可能性低得多。韓國和中國台灣用前三種方法的可能性高。
 
日元價值溫和波動對中國的影響可能有限,因為中國與日本在出口高端電子產品和汽車方面沒有直接競爭對抗。
 
但摩根士丹利指出,從貨幣戰形勢來看,美元對人民幣匯率的緩慢變動可能讓恢復競爭力成為棘手問題。
 
此外,不應忘記其他新興市場經濟體,他們也在擔憂本幣升值。
 
與亞洲新興經濟體相比,拉美增長緩慢,他​​們已經堅定地將降息列入日程。
 
哥倫比亞近來的降息可能就受到強勢比索的影響。
 
秘魯已經宣布會回購本國發行的國際債券,代之以本國貨幣的債券。而拉美最發達國家之一智利正在商議結構改革,以此解決本幣強勢問題。
 
總之,貨幣戰不是摩根士丹利的基準預測,但日本決策者的承諾的確增加了日元始終走低招致報復的風險,使我們更接近貨幣戰。
 
1930年代的經歷意味著,國內問題可能引發這類大規模貨幣危機,也確實明顯決出了贏家和輸家。
 
新興市場決策者已經為保證自己的贏面而發力,但現在的力量均衡取決於日本。
 
下面我們再回顧下圖,它體現了上世紀30年代貨幣戰的一大教訓:早做行動的一方犧牲了本幣與黃金掛鉤的國家,利用這些國家獲益,產生了以鄰為壑的結果。



Is This Where The Secret JP Morgan London Gold Vault Is Located?

呢編文要記錄在blog先...

In a world defined by "financial innovation", where $1 of hard collateral can spawn over $1000 in repoed and rehypothecated liabilities (and assets), where "shadow banking" is far more important than traditional bank liabilities (and to this date remains completely misunderstood), and where every month the central and commercial banks force create over $100 billion in credit money (which end consumers refuse to absorb and which therefore ends up in the stock market), the concept of a "hard asset" is an increasingly redundant anachronism. Yet while the Federal Reserve has emerged as the bastion of the New Normal's financial innovation front in which the concept of money is backed by absolutely nothing other than the Dollar's increasingly fleeting reserve status, when it comes to the definition of "Old Normal" money - gold - it still is the domain of the first and original central bank: London.
At first blush, most would not associate London with the hard asset mecca of the world: in fact, when it comes to some of the most spectacular hyper-levered "New Normal" cataclysms in recent years: AIG, Lehman, MF Global, JPMorgan's London Whale, all of them originated in London. Yet for the most part these events occurred precisely because of the mindboggling leverage already employed by the London financial system. Recall that the UK has some 600% in financial debt/GDP - an unprecedented amount compared to any other developed world nation. Yet, paradoxically, the fact that there is so much financial leverage implies that there must be an abundance of hard assets at the bottom of the London Exter Pyramid. After all, financial counterparties, especially in this day and age, may be insolvent but they are not idiots, and all will demand at least some paper representation that there is a trace of hard collateral at the bottom of the latest financial Frankenstein CDO, SPV, CLO, CPDO, RMBS or [insert any other modern financial "asset" acronym]. And keep in mind we are talking private sector gold: Gordon Brown's epic blunder of dumping the sovereign UK gold at rock bottom prices hardly needs a mention.
Which is why in order to spawn such a gargantuan amount of financial debt, London, which for centuries was the financial capital of the world and which sequestered the bulk of the world's real, tangible wealth until the ascendancy of the US in the 20th century, London's commercial vaults, are literally full of gold (as much as it may pale in comparison with the total notional amount of liabilities it has created).
After all it is the London Bullion Market Association. Not New York, Zurich or Singapore.
Why is London such an integral part of the gold financial world? We'll let none other than JPMorgan explain:
The characteristics of the London market uniquely support the use of gold as collateral by ensuring:
  • Quality and liquidity: “London Good Delivery” sets the standard for gold quality. Rigorous specifications as to size and purity ensure that each London ood Delivery gold bar meets pre-set standards with little to no variation between one bar and the next. This consistency ensures that counterparties will receive gold of an expected quality (99.5% fine), which allows the metal to be easily transferred between members of the London Bullion Market. Ultimately, this facilitates trading and market liquidity—both desirable attributes for collateral.
  • Flexibility: The London gold market uses both unallocated and allocated gold. In layman’s terms, allocated gold specifically identifies each gold bar with a specific owner. Allocated gold is essentially held in separate accounts; it cannot be pooled with gold from others to satisfy obligations. In contrast, unallocated gold is held in a general pool by the bullion dealer and the customer has a general entitlement to the metal, but not to a specific gold bar. The LMBA states that unallocated gold “is the most convenient, cheapest and most commonly used method of holding the metal.” In practical terms, unallocated gold is comparable to putting dollars, pounds or euros into the bank. Once deposited, the money becomes fungible—you can withdraw the same amount of money you put in, but you will not receive back the same exact bills that you deposited. The use of unallocated gold allows for amounts smaller than a gold bar to be used as collateral between counterparties—a significant benefit to a collateral program given that a London Good Delivery bar weighs 438.9 ounces, and gold is currently trading for over US$1,700 per ounce.
  • Transparency: Readily available price information promotes market transparency and aids in daily mark-to-market and margin calculations. Gold is priced by the market twice daily (morning and afternoon) and widely reported by both the financial press and data vendors. Use of a predictable daily price fix point allows counterparties to mitigate their daily exposure and set haircuts to manage ongoing price fluctuations. The afternoon U.S. Dollar London old Fix is viewed by market participants as the appropriate way to mark gold given daily price fluctuations and increasing values.
  • Ease of transfer: The London Bullion Market clears daily using paper transfers that evidence the unallocated gold held between members. This allows them to simply and efficiently settle mutual trades and transfers to/from third parties while mitigating the costs and risks associated with physical movement of bullion. The use of paper transfers and unallocated gold facilitate easy transfers between counterparties when needed.
And speaking of JP Morgan, incidentally the subject of this post, what do we know about their London-based gold vault services? Once again, in their words:
J.P. Morgan recently integrated its gold vaulting service in London with its tri-party collateral agency service.
  • J.P. Morgan operates one of the two largest commercial gold vaults in London (one of only six in the City) and is a member of the London gold clearing system.
  • J.P. Morgan is also one of the few truly global providers of collateral management services. As collateral agent, J.P. Morgan works with two parties that have an established collateralized lending or financing arrangement.
Who is the other largest commercial gold vault in London? Why HSBC of course: the bank which has recently been embroiled in virtually every scandal involving global money laundering, also happens to be the custodian for such massive (supposedly) physical gold repositories as those of the SPDR Gold GLD ETF. The HSBC gold vault is also known as "Gold's secret hiding place" as CNBC penned it, when Bob Pisani was allowed to take a look deep inside the vault's bowels but only after he was theatrically blindfolded (a visit which we commented on at the time).
Yet Pisani's blindfold, while theatrical, was premeditated: the number of people who know where the HSBC vault is located is a handful, because the last thing commercial gold vaults, and certainly their customers, would want to deal with is a Simon Gruber-type Die Hard 2-style goldjacking.
Amusingly it was none other than the Bundesbank who in November invoked the ghost of the fictional New York Fed gold heist when a member of its executive board told NY Fed's Bill Dudley that  "you can be assured that we are confident that our gold is in safe hands with you. The days in which Hollywood Germans such as Gerd Fröbe, better known as Goldfinger, and East German terrorist Simon Gruber, masterminded gold heists in US vaults are long gone. Nobody can seriously imagine scenarios like these, which are reminiscent of a James Bond movie with Goldfinger playing the role of a US Fed accounting clerk." This happened two months before the Bundesbank diametrically (and embarrassingly) flip-flopped and decided to, all pinky swears to the contrary, begin repatriating its gold from the New York Fed (and Paris) after all. But not London (at least not yet). It also perhaps means that the days of Simon Gruber may not be "long gone", especially if the whereabouts of vaults containing billions worth of gold bullion were known to the public.
And just like the SPDR would want nothing less than to have the address of the HSBC gold vault made public (the same goes for HSBC of course), so those other ETF providers who use JPM's London gold vault as a custodian, such as Blackrock's iShares IAU ETF, or ETF Securities, would want nothing less than to have the location of JPM's vault exposed.
Needless to say, the actual addresses of "LBMA Vault" provided by the LBMA in its Annex 2 for "The Good Delivery Rules for Gold and Silver Bars" lists the headquarters office of the vaulting firm, and certainly not the actual address, because it would have been somewhat disingenuous to blindfold Pisani just to deliver him toe 8 Canada Square, or the HSBC head office in London, the address provided by the LBMA as vaulting address of HSBC. And certainly the address given for the JPM vault at 125 London Wall, aka Alban Gate, which was the firm's headquarters until its move to 25 Bank Street in 2012, is the last place even one bar of gold would be found.
Which is why we were quite stunned to find, in the deep recesses of the internet (and hosted by the Indonesian stock exchange of all place), a trade ticket from May 26, 2011, issued by the Perth Mint of Australia to Avocet Gold Mining (a West African gold miner), in which the Mint confirms its purchase of 2,126 ounces of gold at a price of $1,526 for a total transaction price of $3.246 million.

What is notable about the trade ticket is the additional information provided for the account clearer, in this case, none other than JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, London, as well as the number of the Gold Account held by said clearer: "No. 01380" but what is by far the most interesting, is that the actual physical address of the JPMorgan facility is provided: 60 Victoria Embankment, London.
Ladies and gentlemen: we may just have uncovered the actual location of the ultra-secretive JPMorgan gold vault in the city of London.
Where is 60 Victoria Embankment, London? See below:

The building's southern/river face is the glorious facade of the City of London School which occupied this location from 1879 until 1986 (and which is currently situated just east of here along the Blackfriars Underpass, next to the Millennium Bridge).


As the map above shows, it is a rather sizable building, located just off the Thames river and steps away from the Blackfriars Bridge, whose official designation until recently was Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of New York, Ltd, a remnant from the firm's merger with Guaranty Trust Company in 1959 (recall that JPM was called Morgan Guaranty Trust until 1989).
A cursory media search about the otherwise very nondescript looking building at 60 Victoria reveals that it had been fully leased by JP Morgan as long ago as 1991. What is more interesting, is that the property had previously been bundled as part of a high-profile commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, deal called White Tower 2006-3. The deal consolidated properties formerly owned by one-time London real estate mogul, Simon Halabi, one of the financial crisis most notable falls from Grace, who had an estimated net worth of $4.3 billion in 2007, and in April 2010 was declared bankrupt, and whose current whereabouts have since been unknown.
White Tower 2006-3, most infamous for being the first CMBS deal to be placed in liquidation after the start of the currency crisis, held a variety of properties near and dear to JPMorgan's heart, first and foremost 60 Victoria Embankment, the 420,000 sq ft of office buildings fully let to JP Morgan Chase; but notably Alban Gate, the 382,000 sq ft office property located on London Wall in the heart of the City and fully let to JP Morgan Chase. The latter also was JPM's UK headquarters until last year.
What happened next is interesting: in July 2010 Carlyle bought the bulk of the "White Tower" asset portfolio from the defunct CMBS, paying some £173 million for the 60 Victoria Embankment location. Three very short months later, none other than long-time 60 Victoria resident JPMorgan bought the very same building from Carlyle for a whopping £350 million: a transaction which doubled Carlyle's money in an unprecedented three months! At the time the now former CEO of JPM's investment bank Jes Staley (and who currently works for BlueMountain - the same fund that made a killing by squeezing none other than JPMorgan's London Whale traders), said, "These properties are long-term investments and represent our continued commitment to London as one of the world's most important financial centres." Frank Bisignano, chief administrative officer, added: "These properties are among the most attractive pieces of real estate in London. These buildings ensure that our employees will have the necessary technology, infrastructure and amenities to take our businesses forward." Curiously, JPM showed zero love for its Alban Gate location, which it promptly departed to go to its new Canary Wharf HQ, and Carlyle was forced to pull the sale of this property a year later as it did not get enough satisfactory bids.
A pressing question remains: why did JPM, a long-time tenant of 60 Victoria not submit its own bid for the location it knew it would end up purchasing outright in a few months from Carlyle anyway? Why overpay by £177 million in exchange for merely having one more middleman do a three-month transaction? We hope to find out.
Yet what is very clear is that there was something of far greater value to JPM at the 60 Victoria location than at its old headquarters.
What that "thing" may be, and what is the missing puzzle piece in this story, comes from a very peculiar article written nearly four years ago in an Abu Dhabi/Arab Emirates website titled TheNational, titled "Mystery gold cargo linked to Saad, Gosaibi feud", which described just that - the fate of a series of very peculiar gold shipments, the key of which once again involved the two main abovementioned players: Perth Mint and 60 Victoria Embankment.
We repost the entire story below, while highlighting the key parts:
The Qantas freighter QF71 that took off from Perth Airport on November 3 last year bound for London would not have attracted any special attention, despite the fact that it was carrying 1.2 tonnes of gold bullion, then worth about US$28 million (Dh102.8m).

Perth, in Western Australia, is home to Australia's Gold Corporation Mint, where bullion is processed and turned into standard 12.5kg bricks. From there, the ingots are shipped daily around the globe to vaults in America, Europe and Asia, evidence of the world's apparently insatiable appetite for the precious metal. But what made this shipment unusual was that it was the first of 15 such cargoes, of varying quantities and values, which over the next seven months were eventually unloaded mainly in London. Smaller amounts were also delivered to Dubai and Zurich.

The total value of the bullion exported in these operations approached $430m at current market prices, and it weighed 10.4 tonnes. The other distinguishing factor was the identity of the recipients, or "consignees" as they are known. According to documentation seen by The National, they were all companies associated with the al Gosaibi family of Saudi Arabia. The al Gosaibis have since fallen out spectacularly with their partner, Maan al Sanea of Saad Group, in the biggest corporate scandal to hit the Middle East, leaving about 120 banks worldwide with debts estimated at up to $22 billion and a decreasing likelihood of getting their money back.

In a global hunt for assets to offset their losses, the banks have looked into every corner of the Al Gosaibi trading empire and the Saad Group controlled by Mr al Sanea. A small army of lawyers, forensic accountants and corporate investigators has been hired to track down assets over which the banks believe they have claim. They have turned up property, financial investments, relatively small amounts of cash and other baubles of the wealthy, such as aircraft leases. There was even a private zoo. But the most curious discovery so far is the Gosaibi gold.

Perhaps the most remarkable fact about the shipments is that although there are detailed and specific records of them having taken place, neither party in the al Gosaibi-al Sanea confrontation seems to lay any claim to their ownership. Each side denies it was responsible for the shipments. Despite being regularly ranked among the world's billionaires, neither the family's controlling partnership, Ahmad Hamad Al Gosaibi and Brothers, nor Mr Al Sanea's Saad Group has any previous known involvement in the bullion business.

The first shipment took place just as the world appeared on the verge of financial meltdown last November. They continued until May, when the crisis in the two Saudi families exploded into the public domain after they failed to make repayments on loans associated with their banking businesses in Bahrain. The shipments reached a peak in late February and early March, just as tensions within the al Gosaibi family intensified after the death of Sulaiman, the family patriarch and chairman, on February 22.

One shipping document shows that, the following day, "a shipment of 21,500 fine ounces of large 12.5kg gold bars, minimum 99.5 per cent purity" was sent from AGR Matthey, a well known Australian bullion dealer, from Perth Airport via Singapore to London's Heathrow. From there, the bullion was moved to the vaults of Standard Bank of South Africa, located in the London offices of JPMorgan Chase at 60 Victoria Embankment, Blackfriars, London.

The shipment was marked "London good delivery", meaning it met the internationally recognised standards for bullion delivery and could be deposited alongside bullion of the same quality. The Standard Bank account in which it was deposited was in the name of Al Gosaibi Trading Services, one of the companies owned by the al Gosaibi family. But financing such a transaction - the gold was worth about $20m - is a complicated process.

The usual procedure is for the consignee to arrange a letter of credit with the supplier, which is then guaranteed by a bank. In this case, the letter of credit bears the reference number "Awal 157". Awal is the Bahraini bank owned by Mr al Sanea, but which is now in the administration of the Bahrain Central Bank. Ten of the 15 shipping documents bear the Awal reference, while the rest have reference to "TIBC", The International Banking Corporation, the al Gosaibis' Bahraini bank which is similarly in administration.

It is common practice in the trade finance business for those letters of credit to be separately financed by a third party, such as an international bank. This is what happened with the Gosaibi gold. The amounts paid for the bullion were drawn down from lending facilities with these global banks but those borrowings have not been repaid, banking sources say. International banks, so far frozen out of the settlement process in Saudi Arabia or offered derisory amounts by the feuding families, are keen to track down the location and ownership of this bullion, to seize and offset against debts owed them. While most of the bullion ended up in London, two shipments went to other locations.

Also on February 23, some 629kg of "London good delivery" were shipped from Perth on Singapore Airlines flight SQ226/SQ490 to Dubai International Airport. The shipment was delivered to the Brinks Global Services facilities at the Dubai Airport Free Zone, marked for the attention of: "Malcolm Clingham, for account of Al Gosaibi Trading Services Ltd." Again, the financing reference was "Awal 158". Attempts to reach Mr Clingham were unsuccessful. An employee of Brinks in Dubai said he left the company about four months ago.

The other non-London shipment took place on April 29, when 689kg of gold left Perth on Singapore Airlines flight SQ226/SQ346 to Zurich in Switzerland. The shipment was marked for delivery to: "UBS AG Zurich, for account Standard Bank PLC." Although no named consignee account was mentioned on the shipping document, the financing reference was "TIBC 438". The final shipment to arrive in London took place on May 6, when 722kg was placed on a Delta Airlines flight DL94 in Salt Lake City, Utah, in the US. This was marked for the Al Gosaibi Trading Services account at Standard Bank at the JPMorgan Chase building in London. The financing reference was "Awal 177".

So while there is plenty of evidence that the gold shipments took place, there is huge uncertainty about who initiated them, who owns the bullion, and even where the gold is now. The company named as the bullion account holder, Al Gosaibi Trading Services (ATS), is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bahrain-based Al Gosaibi Investment Holdings (AIH), based in Bahrain which is in turn owned by three family members. But the management control of ATS and AIH is in dispute.

In a legal filing in New York, John D Potter, a former general manager of Al Gosaibi Investment Holdings, declared that: "Mr al Sanea exercised complete control over the operations and activities of AIH, to the exclusion or virtual exclusion of the other directors and the shareholders." Lawyers for Mr al Sanea, the London firm of Harbottle & Lewis, declined to comment on the gold shipments. But sources close to the Kuwait-born financier have denied he was involved in the transactions.

Creditor banks, which asked to remain anonymous, have told The National that their inquiries to Standard Bank in London have not so far produced any positive indication of ownership of the bullion, or even confirmation that it is still in Standard's vaults. Through its South African head office, a spokesman for Standard Bank said: "Our executives in London are adamant they cannot comment - not even off the record - as this would be a breach of client confidentiality."

Whoever ends up owning the gold from Perth will at least have made some money out of the Saudi confrontation, which has affected the kingdom's economy and stock market, and ravaged the balance sheets of regional and international banks. The gold price has risen by nearly 50 per cent over the past year. The shipment last November, worth some $28m when QF71 took off from Perth, is now valued at $42m - wherever it might be.
Courtesy of TheNational, we now know that one of the key features of the building at 60 Victoria is that it houses at least the vault of the Standard Bank of South Africa: in other words, somewhere deep underground, there is, indeed, a major gold vault. We also know, that after leasing this location for nearly two decades, JPMorgan decided to take the plunge and bought it outright in 2010, in a transaction that as shown above was a scramble to park cash and to procure the property for sale. In other words, JPM now has sole custodial possession of all the vaulting services offered under its 60 Victoria Embankment address.
So is this where the legendary JPMorgan London vault is located? Certainly nothing short of Blythe Masters admitting on live TV that yes, this is where one of the two largest commercial gold vaults in the UK is located, and as JPM admitted previously, only one of only six commercial vaults in all of London, there will be speculation and one can't be certain.
However, a quick cursory virtual trip around this building using Google's Street View feature shows that this building, barricaded on every side by a dense forest of bollards, is as protected from outside interest (especially of the automotive kind) as any modern day fortress.
The building's entrance on John Carpenter street, just north of Victoria's embankment - bollards everywhere:

The building's reinforced back/delivery entrance: corner of Kingscote and Tudor: barriers, a reinforced gate with a screen on top of it, and even more bollards which surround the entire building and prevent the parking of any cars in proximity to the building:

And finally, not one, but two rows of bollards, cordoning off a 60 foot area in the street on both sides. South view:

And north view:

Needless to say, no car, or any other potential threat, can enter that ~60 foot space from either side.
Is that where, dozens of feet underground, the world's most secretive commercial gold vault is located? Just below what was once the main campus of the City of London School for boys.

* * *
Update: a quick Google Street View trip around the block from the main JPM entrance to Carmelite Street, just south of Tudor Street, or here...

... reveals the following armored Brinks trucks waiting:

And

In front of an even more impressive looking gate:

市場大鱷跟聯儲局對賭

 加息.....來了?
 
楊衞隆

美國不少經濟學者警告伯南克繼續推行量化寬鬆會引發超級通脹。伯南克完全忽略經濟學者的警告。這樣的事情,以前發生過。

2005年7月,伯南克接受CNBC電視台訪問時,被問及,有經濟學家說美國樓市有泡沫,很快會爆破。全國樓價大幅度下跌會引發經濟衰退。主持人問伯南南,最惡劣情況會是怎樣。他說,『相當不可能有這樣的機會。我們未有過全國性樓價下跌。我認為更有可能樓價放緩。或者樓價穩定,減慢一點消費。但我不認為會令到經濟。遠離現在的全民就業途徑。』

事實證明,當時確實有樓市泡沫,而且泡沫爆破的時候重創美國經濟。2005年,伯南克看不到擺在眼前的數十萬億美元資產泡沬。2013年,伯南克又看不到QE引發的超級通脹危機。
過去4年,奧巴馬為美國政府帶來6萬億美元赤字,伯南克為聯儲局的資產負債表增加3萬億美元資產。這4年時間,奧巴馬和伯南克兩人的印鈔票速度和規模絕對是史無前例。美國濫發國債和鈔票,通脹沒有可能不上升。

4年前,美國加州汽油是每加侖1.4美元,現在大約4美元,升幅大約2.8倍。我在加州感受到過去4年通脹急升,超級市場內的糧食不停加價。2012年的官方全年通脹率只是1.7%,簡直是大話西遊。2012年,汽油加價、糧食加價、郵費加價、電影戲票加價、大學學費加價,水果的加價幅度更加是驚人,幾乎甚麼都加價,我感受到的通脹率是8%以上。

市場上的大鱷,例如索羅斯等人,看到美國通脹失控,一齊大手拋售黃金,令到金價一度跌穿1,600美元關口,跌落6個月低位。黃金價格是息口敏感,加息對金價的打擊很大。市場大鱷在伯南克實行無限量QE的時候拋售黃金,而且美國財政懸崖懸而未決,黃金應該是避險工具,這個時候拋售黃金,即是說,市場大鱷認為聯儲局退市和加息的機會很大,大到可以大手壓注下去。

那麼,通脹已經有了一段時間,為何大鱷要在這個時候拋售黃金? 
 
其中一個原因是3月1日自動實行的全面削減開支。
 
民主黨人最近提出的取代全面削減開支方案,根本上是笑話,只是再次要求以抽富人稅取代削減開支。
 
財政懸崖之中,抽富人稅的部份在1月1日已經立法解決。
 
美國國會議員看到這樣的方案,連討論的興趣都沒有,立即去了休假,到了國會2月25日復會的時候,距離3月1日全面削減開支只有5日時間。現在可以假定美國跌下財政懸崖。
 
全面削減開支會停止政府對某些農業和畜牧業產品的補貼,通脹有可能因此急升,迫使聯儲局立即退市,大手加息。

自由為名 保護為實

王冠一

明 報專訊】冷戰把西歐與美國的經濟關係牢牢地綑綁在一起,當時美國透過「馬歇爾計劃」,大規模支援西歐的經濟復興,成功利用經濟實力抗衡蘇聯,功不可沒。但 隨覑冷戰結束,環球經濟一體化的概念興起,「東方」的廉價勞動力,開始吸引歐美的生產力外移,而經濟相對富庶的歐美亦慢慢向消費型經濟傾斜,最終導致今日 環球貿易不平衡的局面。
除了德國經濟發展相對較健全之外,歐美多國經歷多年毫無節制的消費型經 濟後,紛紛面對財赤、貿赤、失業高企等民主國家難以解決的結構性經濟問題。直到2008年金融危機爆發,美國聯儲局推行量化寬鬆為匯率戰爭揭開序幕一刻開 始,匯率戰爭背後各國所爭奪的,其實是希望扳回貿易優勢。

美意圖重整環球經濟秩序

如果套用經濟戰爭的思維,歐美要在經濟不平衡的大形勢中勝出,首要任務是致力避免外匯持續流向以新興市場為主的貿盈國陣營之中。而美國主導下重新規劃環球經濟秩序的意圖亦愈來愈明顯。

雖然太平洋地區的多邊貿易平台有亞太經合組織(APEC)、東亞亦有「東盟+中日韓」逐漸成型,但美國偏偏要另起爐灶,提出「跨太平洋經濟戰略伙伴 協定」(TPP),似乎要把中國排擠在太平洋地區的貿易舞台之外。最近美國再主動提出「跨大西洋貿易及投資伙伴協定」(TTIP),在大西洋地區建立區域 自由貿易平台,難道美國想重建環球貿易市場的霸主地位,不惜矮化WTOG20、APEC等美國影響力日益低落的國際經貿組織?

自貿區引資回巢 屬另類貿易保護主義

美國最忌美元不再得到全球認同與信任,惟有在美國主導下進行貿易活動,才能確保資金不會輕易流失到非盟友陣營。區域自由貿易表面上看似鼓吹貿易自由化,其實反而凸顯出與其他經濟體之間劍拔弩張的貿易關係。

歐美重新靠攏,呈現的是一幅貿赤國陣營的聯盟,矛頭似乎直指以中國為首的新興市場貿盈國集團。相信歐盟與美國是要透過自由貿易區,牢牢控制住資金在區內流動,甚至把持續流向新興市場的國際游資吸引回巢。換言之,自由貿易區建議的背後,其實是另一種貿易保護主義在抬頭。

與歐存矛盾 美如意算盤難打響

不過,要落實歐美自由貿易區仍是障礙重重,並非三言兩語或一時三刻會有成果。

其中,歐美各自的農業政策,本土保護意識高漲,相信雙方需要花耗大量心力尋求談判的突破口;再者,歐美兩地的勞工政策與法例有別,大西洋兩岸的政客 為保選票,未必願意為自由貿易區概念犧牲太多本土勞工權益。因此,就算美國的貿易大戰略編寫得如何壯麗,如意算盤要打得響仍需要花點功夫與運氣。
王冠一

資金流出黃金市場

石林
新春伊始,恰逢世界黃金協會(WGC)發表2012年第四季黃金需求報告,顯示該季金飾需求,特別是官方購入的表現令人注目,分別比前年同季增長13%和29%。
然 而若以去年四個季度與前年四個季度相比,數字並非展示出一幅大好圖像。去年環球黃金總供應為4453.3噸,按年比下降10%;可統計的總需求為 4405.5噸,按年比下降4%。其中金礦生產去年輕微增加了12.1噸,廢金回流則減少了42.9噸。而金飾需求減少了64噸,金條金幣需求更減少了 259.8噸。需求方面增加的有ETFs類,增加了93.9噸;以及官方購入增加了77.8噸。 
去年環球黃金需求按年比呈下降,其中一個重要原因是,印度金飾和零售投資需求從986.3噸下降至864.2噸,減幅達12%。同年中國在這方面需求亦從779.8噸微降至776.1噸,表現不前反略退。本港這方面的需求也下降3%,從29.6噸減至28.5噸。
看清數字免受誤導
以 上不厭其煩地列出各項增減的實際噸數量,是使讀者免受官式解讀、新聞報道或百分比數字有意無意所誤導。例如光看去年ETFs類需求年比增長51%是很驚人 的,但其實只增加了93.9噸,更何況最近ETFs的持金量已從高峰滑落,其中最大的SPDR(GLD)持金量,從去年12月上旬的1353.35噸高 峰,下滑到上周五的1322.98噸。
此外,「央行買金」的影響常被誇大,去年增長的年比達17%,但其實只增加了77.8噸而已。試對比一個剛好相反減降17%幅度的金條金幣需求,實際減少了259.8噸數量,遠非「央行買金」所可以填補的,這是去年金價表現相對呆滯不前的另一個重要原因。
一 般人受有意無意誤導的還有,大行或名人常被搬出來嚇人。例如上周五新聞報道說,索羅斯上季減持黃金,減幅達54.5%,消息頗為嚇人。看其詳情,原來索氏 基金減持了72萬股SPDR,這究竟是多少呢?答曰:每股SPDR價值為0.097盎斯黃金,72萬股SPDR即相當於6.984萬盎斯或2.172噸黃 金,這僅佔SPDR去年底持金總量的0.16%。該數量約相當於700張期金合約的份量,對整個金市來說是小菜一碟。敝欄感到奇怪的,不是索氏減持,而是 人們大驚小怪!
對沖基金早已撤離
新春前後兩周金市大致按敝欄上期警告的向低檔下試發展,關鍵是上周五,金價在失守1640元(美元.下同)後,直插至1597.2元的半年低位才略回彈至1610.1元收市,有如同日發生的巨型隕石直衝地面至炸出一個大洞而止。
金 價再跌,不是因為索羅斯去年末季部分平倉所引致,而是某勢力利用此消息繼續其壓制金價以保衞美元的計劃。在此之前,為實現此計劃,他們通過代理人多次使用 「秒殺」手法,從而迫使或誘導對沖基金撤離黃金市場。到目前為止,該勢力可謂取得成功,美元終於逃過跌穿圖表大型頭肩頂的頸線之大劫,美滙指數上周在美國 聯邦儲備資產總值再創出30759億元新高時,竟能攀回上80.58的近期高點。
對沖基金的確在撤離金市,自去年11月下旬至今,其好倉量由19.37萬張合約減降至12.68萬張,沽倉量則由3.46萬張增升到6.71萬張。連續商品指數CCI再度回軟,也是某勢力的連帶收穫。再回看上文說的黃金投資需求熱潮減退,可見資金是在流出黃金市場。
自 去年10月上旬起,金市圖表已形成一個下降通道,最近金價跌破早前的1626元至1697元徘徊區底線,亦引致技術拋售。目前技術劣勢已成,金價有可能下 試通道下方的1584元,再往下的支持分別為1553元和1545元;短期回升阻力分別在1617元和1626元,而1636元至1639元是強大阻力 帶。
銀市牛方在上述環境也告不支,被迫平倉,過去兩周銀價跌幅共6.4%,比金市的3.45%為大。
銀價目前最接近的支持為29.6元,關鍵支持則為29.2元,此位若失守則可能進一步下試27.9元或27.6元。而30.5元和30.8元分別是回升阻力,強大回升阻力則在31.6元水平。
Picture 

Gold & Silver – An Authoritative Special Repor

Martin Armstrong


Silver 1874-1899
Much of the stories on the web about silver and gold tend to reflect the official prices rather than the free market prices. There is ALWAYS a free market even during periods of fixed exchange rates. During Bretton Woods, there was currency trading in Hong King where the yen dell to nearly 500 to the dollar despite the “official” exchange rate being 360.
Bryan-CrossOfGold
The same problem exists with the precious metals. At our Princeton Conference March 18-19, we will be paying close attention to the metals since there is serious need for a honest authoritative review where there is nobody trying to sell you bullion and coins. The so called Crime of 1873 when the USA demonetized silver, there was an uproar that lasted into the end of the century culminating in the famous speech of William Jennings Bryan that thou shalt not crucify mankind on a cross of gold.

SV-PUCK
The data used by most people is simply the official standard of silver to gold used by the US government during the 19th century. The Long Depression of the period was created by the flood of silver that was grossly overvalued. For you see, the source of the Crime of 1873 did NOT lie in the USA. Once again you had to look to Europe. If you do not conduct GLOBAL correlations, you will be forever lost in the wanderings of a domestic mind. It was the FrancoPrussian War of 1870 (19 July 1870 – 10 May 1871) that set the silver crisis in motion. Inflation had soared, but the disparity between gold and silver widened. Germany ceased to coin silver thalers for the people simply devalued them. Once Germany stopped minting silver coins, the price of silver collapsed. The USA was forced to demonetize silver due to the free market. The political pressure to subsidize the silver miners who otherwise would have lost their shirt and pants, led to 26 years of economic decline not much different that Japan. Pictured here is a British Magazine making a joke of how the Americans were drowning in overvalued silver dollars.

Pressure mounted and Congress passed the Bland–Allison Act of 1878 requiring the U.S. Treasury to buy $2 million a month and put it into circulation as silver dollars. Though the bill was vetoed by President Rutherford B. Hayes, the Congress overrode Hayes’ veto on February 28, 1878 to enact the law. This unsound finance drove the silver to gold ration during this period from 16-to-1 in 1873 to nearly 30-to-1 by 1893. It would soar to over 100-to-1 during the 20th century.

So for all those people touting $150 silver is around the corner, and others promising the collapse of the dollar and $30,000 gold, we will be issuing a very important forecasting report for the metals – (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper). This will be included in seat prices for the Princeton World Economic Conference. We will include for the first time a silver-gold ratio chart back to 600BC.