2013年4月4日星期四

T. Ferguson: Washout Becoming Increasingly Likely in Gold & Silver

  Cartel今次企圖是把金銀價推到長期支持位,分別是 金1525,銀26.4..

當金銀價跌穿這些支持位,

就會觸發量大量程式止蝕盤發出沽貨訊號,

今次真係有戲睇....


TF from TFMetalsReport.com has released an update this afternoon warning gold & silver investors that a major wash-out decline in both metals is becoming increasingly likely, particularly as silver has breached support and dipped into the $26 level overnight and again Wednesday afternoon. TF warns that the cartel appears to be attempting to induce a brief yet violent washout by smashing gold under significant long-term support at $1525 and into the $1400′s, and silver down through major long-term support at $26, triggering massive sell-stops and driving the metal into the low $20′s, at which point the cartel will be able to cover and the next major metals rally will begin.

Turd warns that: Everybody and their brother are looking at $26 silver as a final line of defense. What concerns me is JPM et al working collusively with the other commercials to pull their bids. This creates an air pocket into which the Large Specs sell even more and blow silver through $26. A drop through $26 would frighten nearly everyone but it would be The Bottom and the ultimate and best buying opportunity.
Good luck sourcing physical if this scenario plays out, as wholesale suppliers are already at 8 week delays on 90%, and 3-4 week delays on Silver Maples and Eagles


From T. Ferguson:
We must admit that it is looking increasingly likely that a washout is coming. Previously, I had only put this at one chance in four. After these past three days, we must now consider this a 50/50 probability, at a minimum.

It is looking increasingly likely that the goal of all of this is to drop gold through $1525-1535. This would:

  1. Trigger all sorts of long-term sell stops for The Cartels to cover into.
  2. Allow Maria Headiromo to proclaim that “gold is officially in a bear market”, down over 20% from its all-time highs of August 2011.
Everybody and their brother is looking at $26 silver as a final line of defense. What concerns me is JPM et al working collusively with the other commercials to pull their bids. This creates an air pocket into which the Large Specs sell even more and blow silver through $26.

The resulting waterfall triggered by all of the long-term sell stops would take silver to $25 or even $24. Fast. At that point, everyone who is going to sell will have sold and the long climb back up begins.

This is why I’m pleading for strength and courage. A drop through $26 would frighten nearly everyone but it would be The Bottom and the ultimate and best buying opportunity…

No time for summer soldiers and sunshine patriots around here. Your faith is about to be severely tested. Do you have the courage of your convictions or are you easily swayed? Will you succumb to pressure and follow the crowd off the cliff or will you stand tall?
IF the Large Specs run price through $1525, what will you do? Do you have a plan? If silver falls through $26, will you be ready? Again, today’s action dramatically increases the likelihood of The Final Washout. You have been warned. Prepare accordingly.

塞島事件是否用來強迫儲蓄者轉向消費﹖

Sinclair - Cyprus & Why MSM Is Being Used To Frighten People (2013-03-27)





Jim Sinclair 認為今次塞浦路斯的銀行風波有另一個啟示。今天美國的貨幣流轉速度 (velocity of money) 是過去半個世紀以來最低。眾所周知,若要刺激通脹,就必須使貨幣流轉速度急劇上升。貨幣流轉速停滯不前,則是導致經濟衰退的主要原因。
 
貨幣流轉速度的變化可以是非常突然。過去的貨幣歷史顯示,每次發生超級通脹,首先出現的都是一段時間的呆滯貨幣流轉形勢。然後由於總總的刺激措施,人們對貨幣失去信心,這個時候通脹速度就會突然急劇加速至超級通脹程度。到這個時候,貨幣就會崩潰。
 
在今次塞浦路斯的銀行出現問題,最值得注意的就是大眾媒體好像是有意把問題誇大。以往發生任何銀行風波,傳媒都盡量以大事化小,小事化無的模式來報導。今次傳媒一反常態,大事宣揚塞國銀行的存戶怎樣成了挽救行動的犧牲品,有可能是官方有意借勢給所有儲蓄人士這個信息,你們存在銀行的積蓄隨時可以變成烏有,因此你們最好快快拿去消費。


金融風暴至今,政府都是以貨幣量化寬鬆的形式來向銀行注資。雖然可以因此避免銀行倒閉,但對推動實體經濟毫無幫助,因為銀行收到這筆資金,只用來填補銀行帳簿裡的龐大調期衍生合約的虧損。政府向銀行注資更多都不足以填補這個無底深洞。
 
依 賴銀行來推動經濟證實不能收到效果。(即使這筆挽救銀行的資金流出市場,都只用作推高股市和資產的價格)。政府可能明白到只有刺激消費才能把經濟衰退扭轉 過來。政府希望今次直接打擊銀行的存戶,使所有儲蓄者搖身一轉變成消費者,可以達到預期的效果,終於令經濟復甦。當儲蓄者明白到他們龐大的積蓄隨時可以被 沒收,他們就寧可快快銷耗好了。

當然,此計謀有可能弄巧反拙。從銀行戶口調走的資金不一定會是用來消費,而有可能是用來買金。

日本央行延長購債期 每月增購7萬億日元


 
開放式購買國債將從4月開始,購買國債包括與CPI掛鉤的債券和浮動利率債券。



    
4月購買6.2萬億日元日本國債。



    
自5月份起每月購買規模國債約7.5萬億日元日本國債,包括:



    
購買3.4萬億日元10年期日本國債,這類國債佔比最高。



    
8000億日元10年以上期限日本國債。



    
2200億日元1年以內期限日本國債。



    
3萬億日元為1-5年期日本國債,佔比第二高。



    
兩月一次購買1400億日元浮動利率日本國債。

 
以下為日本央行每月購買國債計劃表,第一張表為4月購買計劃,第二張為5月計劃。



2013-04-04 12:53 原文:
4月4日,日本央行兩日貨幣政策會議決定,維持基準隔夜利率在0-0.1%不變,提前實行開放式QE,力推既有量化又有質化的貨幣寬鬆(Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing ),每月增加購買7萬億日元,可購買所有期限日債。
此次會議以僅一票反對的壓倒多數通過繼續實行量化寬鬆,直至實現2%的通脹目標。如此前市場預期所料,日本央行將前任行長白川方明推出的資產購買計劃(APP)與常規債券項目Rinban合併,並暫停實行購債上限規則(Banknote Rule)。
 
此外,日本央行還決定:


    
提前實施原定2014年1月1日起施行的開放式QE。



    
兩年內讓日債和ETF持有量增加一倍。每年分別購買1萬億日元ETF和300億日元的REIT。



    
政策目標將由隔夜拆借利率轉向基礎貨幣。



    
以每年60-70兆日元的速度增加基礎貨幣。



    
持債平均期限延長一倍。



    
購買國債平均到期期限由三年延長到七年。



    
購買所有期限公債,含40年期國債。
日本央行最新貨幣政策公佈後,美元對日元隨即暴漲,突破94。






10年期日本國債收益率跌破0.51%至近十年低點。

 



以下為日本央行的基礎貨幣目標及央行資產負債表預期:


 看起來美聯儲的資產負債表規模還是超過日本央行,是不是美元/日元急升也受兩大央行資產負債表規模影響?




以下為日本央行決議全文:

市場預期:
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/23551
1、將擴大資產購買的步伐和規模。目前每月購買4.2萬億日元政府債券。 BBG調研預期將擴大至5.2萬億日元。
2、合併兩大債券購買項目。將APP和Rinban購債項目合併。
3、貨幣政策委員會有9人,只有3人支持擴大資產購買,黑田可能會令市場失望。

為何我買金銀不買股?

 朱冠華

早期認識我的人,都知道我是買股票的。只是這幾年將股票全數清出,轉為收金銀。原因要說起來,有一匹布長,簡單點吧!
我的投資方法比較雜,混合了價值投資+技術+趨勢+量化。

請看下圖,黃金是2001年進入牛市的,我們對比美國道瓊斯指數 ,你看到了什麼?



 美國道瓊斯指數vs黃金



美國道瓊斯指數根本沒有牛市,而是陷入結構性的熊市!

我早前說過,我對美元本位崩潰,金銀崛起,都不是預測,我不過是追隨趨勢,跟隨經濟規律而已。這張圖表,也許可以讓你明白少許。

當然,雖然股市12年扣除通膨調整後,實際上是下跌的,但是還有一些股票可以飆漲的非常高,十倍甚至百倍。

但問題在於,我哪知道哪一支股票可以大飆漲?

股票未來都有不確定性,所以我不可能將資金集中在一支我不知道會否飆漲的股票,所以不得不分散投資,拉低了回報率。

所以,我不要煩!反正趨勢是在硬資產身上,乾脆全部資金押在黃金白銀算了!

黃金白銀我倒不需要擔心!

因為黃金白銀不會面對競爭,也不會有財務造假,價值是固定的。

雖然價格會受美元影響而出現起伏,但目前還不需要擔心。因為金銀生產成本已經給了它價格一個穩固的支撐底限。



ckfstock.blogspot.hk





日本央行延長購債期 每月增購7萬億日元 雙料QE推動日元跌破94

4月4日,日本央行兩日貨幣政策會議決定,維持基準隔夜利率在0-0.1%不變,提前實行開放式QE,力推既有量化又有質化的貨幣寬鬆(Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing ),每月增加購買7萬億日元,可購買所有期限日債。
此次會議以僅一票反對的壓倒多數通過繼續實行量化寬鬆,直至實現2%的通脹目標。如此前市場預期所料,日本央行將前任行長白川方明推出的資產購買計劃(APP)與常規債券項目Rinban合併,並暫停實行購債上限規則(Banknote Rule)。
 
此外,日本央行還決定:


    
提前實施原定2014年1月1日起施行的開放式QE。



    
兩年內讓日債和ETF持有量增加一倍。每年分別購買1萬億日元ETF和300億日元的REIT。



    
政策目標將由隔夜拆借利率轉向基礎貨幣。



    
以每年60-70兆日元的速度增加基礎貨幣。



    
持債平均期限延長一倍。



    
購買國債平均到期期限由三年延長到七年。



    
購買所有期限公債,含40年期國債。
日本央行最新貨幣政策公佈後,美元對日元隨即暴漲,突破94。




10年期日本國債收益率跌破0.51%至近十年低點。

 

直播請查看見聞實時新聞:http://live.wallstreetcn.com/
以下為日本央行的基礎貨幣目標及央行資產負債表預期:



看起來美聯儲的資產負債表規模還是超過日本央行,是不是美元/日元急升也受兩大央行資產負債表規模影響?



Silver – Beware of 2640




A reader wrote:
Yes. I am a “silverbug”. I never attacked you since I am a very open minded silverbug not a fanatic. But now the charts and the prices are showing your theory that in the economy, all the big money goes to the dollar  first.

So what should be the primary advice for timing the shifts between asset classes? thats  the hardest part for all the ordinary people like me

So we hoard US dollars now then wait “deflation” ends and when Bernanke  promise more stimulus I should go all in precious metals again?

But the EU zone has a pending crash. I should wait to see them fall.
But the Federal Reserve is monetizing deficits, and so other developed countries.
What is the best asset class then. Can we park money in one place or just trade the markets. what is your best recommendation for 2013?

Here the crazy socialist government has placed a 20% credit card prepay income tax for online purchases to stop dollar nominated transactions via internet :

       Thanks for any insights you may provide to a faithful reader.

I do not deal in theory or I “think”. We are all human and nobody is perfect despite the hype. The unfolding of events is always a sequence never all at once. It takes patience but you can confirm it is developing because it is all connected. Princeton Economics was simply the largest international advisory firm that probably ever existed. When I testified before Congress it was because we at that time had more than 50% of the US National Debt under contract. Now you can spin that claiming I manipulated the world, or you can realize that we solved problems and crises and in so doing, we saw behind the curtain how capital REALLY moves. If there was some giant conspiracy, then why call us if they were always in charge? There are always conflicts globally and at times within the same company as branches fight with each other. Citibank was have a international gathering in Asia. I was signed up to speak. They paid all expenses. But it was the Asian and European branches that wanted me there. New York objected saying they did not want to air their dirty laundry in front of an outsider. I was paid not to go. So these wild theories that paint even banks as unified operations are just not true.


Friedman-sand


I have been educated by the clients. They taught me to look at everything through everyone’s eyes. My dear friend Milton Friedman, who thought out of the box and was not a academic who followed the crowd, came to see me speak I believe at a COMPUTRAC seminar in Chicago. He convinced me that I had a front row seat that no one else ever accomplished, and that was for a purpose. So there are people who still want to make it personal and try to reduce me to their level of just opinion. Sorry – I go by the numbers dispassionately.

The Fed’s monetization is nothing. That is one side of the coin. With the global crisis, the demand for dollars keeps rising and this is why there has been no inflation because we had a massive deflation by the deleveraging of assets. The nonsense spread on this issue alone shows the hype. It is like adding income of $1 million but not expenses $1.2 million and then claiming you are rich.

The numbers are the numbers. Trying to forecast markets based upon hype is like trying to practice medicine by bleeding the patient. The global economy has moved far beyond that nonsense. It is like the people who constantly call for the Dow to Crash in 1929 style. They fail to comprehend what really took place back then. They also make the same mistake and only look at stocks domestically, not government debt, and are clueless about international capital flows.

In silver, we have TWO Weekly Bearish Reversals at 2641 and 2654. If they give way, silver will drop first to $23 zone and if that gives way, look for $17. Keep in mind that everything is HIGHLY volatile. Shaking the tree and getting the diehards out, will create a fresh base from which to rally. The longer they hold in there, the longer the decline like Japan.

The metals are still pointing higher but that is 2017. The Goldbugs blame me because they cannot admit error. This is not a religion. It is a market. The object is to survive, not donate you money to the banks who trade this stuff based upon the technicals.

We will try to have a metals update out ASAP. For now, the dollar is king. Europe is committing suicide and the politicians will not reverse their course because it is all about them, not actually saving the country. Until there are one term only politicians rather than lifetime careers, there is no hope for the future.

armstrongeconomics.com