2016年12月24日星期六

瑞典計劃開始使用電子貨幣,取代現金


半年前,歐洲中央銀行(the European Central Bank)停止發行 500 歐元面額的紙幣,而最近,印度亦廢除了500 及 1000 盧比紙幣,瞬間減少國家近 86% 的現金流。隨著越來越多國家逐步變成「零現金」社會,世界上歷史最悠久的中央銀行──瑞典中央銀行(Riksbank)正開始計劃淘汰紙幣。

瑞典中央銀行於 17 世紀 60 年代開始發行紙幣,是世界上第一所中央銀行,而現在它又再一次成為貨幣革命的先鋒,正致力研究發行電子貨幣所面臨的挑戰。瑞典中央銀行副總裁西西里亞·史金斯利(Cecilia Skingsley)說,它們有可能成為世界上首間發行虛擬貨幣的大型中央銀行。

零現金社會

但在瑞典國內,也許並不會有很多人發現這一舉動,因為瑞典流通的紙幣從 1950 年占 GDP 的10% 到近年已經下降至 1.5%。瑞典現在幾乎已經是一個「零現金」國家:提款機在大部分地區極為稀少,而本地銀行亦紛紛停止現金業務,有些商家甚至停止接受現金。

當然,以電子貨幣完全取代現金,瑞典中央銀行仍須面對很多問題:例如,用戶需要在瑞典中央銀行開戶嗎?與現金交易不同,電子交易是否應該被追蹤?電子貨幣有利率嗎?

史金斯利說,「我個人認為應該把它設計得像現金一樣,也就是無利率,但是也應該不能助長任何非法活動,也就是說它應該具備某種程度的可追蹤性。」

她還提到瑞典中央銀行應當考慮金融穩定性,比如是否應該與商業銀行的存款基礎競爭。她擔心金融不穩定時,人們會將金錢轉移到受國家保護的電子系統,有可能進一步增加不穩定性。

瑞典中央銀行將需要研究很多層面上的問題,包括技術、法律、實際操作及安全性,將於未來兩年內決定是否轉用電子貨幣。而很大可能,中央銀行將在兩年考核期後停止使用紙幣,成為世界首個全面使用電子貨幣的國家。

2016年12月23日星期五

烏克蘭最大私營信貸銀行破產,政府被迫國有化

【廢除實體貨幣】

Looting of Ukraine's Privatbank Is Like Rats Fleeing a Sinking Ship


 

烏克蘭政府宣佈把國內最大的私營信貸銀行Privatbank國有化。此乃因應Privatbank事局的要求,因為銀行沒有足夠資金應付存戶的提款。 

甚麼事把 Privatbank至無力償債的境地﹖原來這是因為銀行的股東,集體又有系統地把銀行的資金盜取。他們在國內和海外設立空殼公司,再由銀行向這些公司貸款,然後把這些款項袋袋平安。 

有跡象令人懷疑,這些空殼公司是間接,由銀行的創辦人及主要股東 Igor Kolomoisky制的。

現在銀行的資金已被掃清了,客戶的存款全部消失了,自然就要給烏克蘭總統Poroshenko打個電話,把這個爛攤子交由他代辦。於是烏克蘭政府就宣佈把Privatbank國有化,由國民(納稅人)來負擔。這間接亦等於由全球的納稅人來負擔,因為自從烏克蘭政變推翻親俄的政府,烏克蘭就是靠國際貨幣基金組織IMF提供支援的。如果說整件事情簡直是明偷暗搶也沒有錯。 

基本上,銀行的股東明顯地是利用銀行來發大財。現在船快要沉沒了,大家都像老鼠一樣連忙棄船。可憐烏克蘭人民要留下來,因為救生艇不知所蹤。 

FateAndTheFuture :  以上恐怕是環球銀行的一個縮影吧。



http://fateandthefuture.blogspot.hk/2016/12/blog-post_54.html?m=1

2016年12月22日星期四

重磅!“八年周期“底部确认失败 暗示金价将跌破1000美元


gormike

金价已经跌至1130附近,较美国大选以来跌200美元。尽管图形显示金价已经过度超卖,但八年周期的底部确认失败,暗示金价还将继续下跌,甚至跌破1000美元每盎司。

GoldPredict.com编辑AG Thorson表示,金价自去年12月低点1045快速反弹,看起来非常像是八年周期的低点,但11月大选以来,金价几乎回吐尽数涨幅,目前正朝着真正的八年周期低点下落。

thorson121616-3
AG Thorson预计,新的八年周期低点将在明年2月出现,金价有望下侧1000美元每盎司。

AG Thorson表示,如果大型投行有意打压金价,则很可能跌破1000美元至892美元每盎司,不过这一点位不会持续太久,就会大幅反弹至1000美元之上。当成交量创下新低时,通常也预示价格新低的出现。

接下来是否会出现投降式下跌?

AG Thorson说,人性不会变,人们总是情绪性的、贪婪、恐惧。持续性的下跌将击溃人们的信心,极端价格将会出现,不断触发多头的止损,进而引发更多的抛售加剧跌势。当恐慌演变成绝望时,通常意味着底部也就出现了。这时候,散户抛盘带来大量的流动性,大型投行和交易型公司就会出手建立多头仓位。

从月线图看,200日移动均线和61.8%回撤支撑位都指向892美元每盎司。

thorson121616-2 (1)

AG Thorson指出,八年周期低点将在2017年一季度出现,如果金价在继续下跌将被视为机会,任何时候当商品处于生产成本时,你都应该好好把握机会。

何谓八年周期?

黄金头条网站早前文章提到,知名的技术分析师Tom McClellan认为,黄金价格存在一个八年周期循环,这个循环暗示金价近期的涨势可能迎来反转。他还表示,跌势随时可能开启,低点将在2016年末出现。

根据McClellan的图表,自从1975年黄金可以自由交易以来,金价就一直存在一个八年的循环周期,如下图所示。

八年周期

除了八年的周期,黄金市场还存在一个13.5月的小周期,这两个周期相互独立,这个指标显示了金价跌势将要开启,并一直持续到年末。

小周期


还记得亨特兄弟吗?白银或迎来前所未有的牛市


Franklin

众所周知,白银价格走势往往与黄金一致。换句话说,白银市场的价格图形应该和黄金市场的一致。然而,最近白银市场发出的更多是与黄金市场不同的信号。个人投资者Simple Digressions对此给出了自己的看法。

中国投资者在囤积白银

从历史经验来看,中国人与美国人对于购买黄金的时机有着不同的方式。简单来讲,中国对黄金的需求随着金价的下跌而增加,而美国的投资者更倾向于在金价上涨时买入。同样的情形也发生在白银市场上:

a

上图显示的是由上海黄金交易所给出的白银库存数据,计价单位是人民币(元)。有趣的是,中国投资者从2015年下半年开始增加其白银库存。在2015年8月至2016年5月期间,上海黄金交易所的白银库存从239吨猛增至1964吨,上涨了722%。此后,由于白银价格处于较高价格,白银的库存数量停滞不前。在今年5月至10月底,白银库存下降至1570吨(10月21日)。然而,受到白银价格下跌影响,中国投资者再次开始购入白银,根据上金所最新一期的报告显示(12月16日)白银库存达到了1898吨。

当中国投资者逢低买入白银之时,美国投资者又在干吗呢?

美国投机客看多白银

为了反映美国投资者对于白银购买白银的情况,Simple Digressions选择了两组数据源,分别是:iShares Silver Trust(一个白银ETF,NYSEARCA:SLV,编者注)和COT报告。

SLV

在2012年年底至2015年年底期间,当白银处于熊市时,SLV的持仓量从10085吨下降至9889吨,降幅1.9%。在同一时期,黄金ETF(GLD)的黄金持仓下降了52.8%。简单来说美国投资者对于白银的投资并不受白银熊市影响。

在2015年底至2016年9月30日期间(白银处于牛市),SLV的持仓量从9889吨上升至11270吨。自那以后,由于白银价格不断下跌,其持仓量下降至10576吨(12月16日)。同样,白银持仓的下跌幅度小于黄金同期的幅度。同期白银与黄金的ETF持仓分别减少了6.2%和11.2%)。总体来说白银持仓量受白银价格的影响弱于黄金。

COT报告

b

c

上图显示的是在金银期货市场中投机者净多头寸的变化情况。不过遗憾的是,最新一期报告的数据统计截止至12月13日, 并没有包含美联储加息后的情况。

不过,两者表现的不同是非常明显的。当黄金的投机者仍在削减他们的净多头头寸时,白银的投机者已经持续两周增加他们的净多头头寸。从中可以看出,相较于黄金投机者们更看好白银。

下一张图显示的是在白银期货市场中,投机者所有者的总净多头头寸。

d

尽管白银价格下跌了很多,但是投机者净多头头寸接近前期峰值水平。

亨特兄弟时代再现?

白银市场与黄金市场不同,白银价格不仅受到投资需求的影响还受到来自工业需求的影响。然而现在的白银市场情况不禁让人联想起亨特兄弟时代。下图显示的是几大白银持有者的持仓情况:

e

其中白银的最大持有者是iShares Silver Trust,持有量为3.4亿盎司白银;前三大持有这总计持有量达5.83亿盎司,占2016年全球白银预计年产量的65.7%。

需要强调的是,当时亨特兄弟的白银持有量占年产量的40%,现在前三大持有者的持有量占全年产量的66%,其中SLV占38.3%。

简单来说,现在的白银市场又一次被逼到了墙角。不仅如此,其程度相较于亨特兄弟时代时有过之而无不及。如果历史将会重演,那么白银市场将出现一轮我们前所未见的牛市。


2016年12月21日星期三

又一個國家拿紙幣“開刀” 印尼央行考慮將印尼盾面額削掉三個零



繼印度、委內瑞拉“廢鈔”,  又一個國家準備要對本國紙幣“開刀”。

據路透12月19日報導,印尼央行行長Agus Martowardojo周一表示,他已經請求總統Joko Widodo重啟一項2013年被擱置的計劃,將調整印尼盾紙幣面額——削減紙幣面額中的三個零,使紙幣變得更有效,更簡單。

如果印尼議會明年通過該項計劃,Agus Martowardojo稱,該國央行還將需要兩年時間來準備新鈔票。那麼,央行需要7年的過渡期,才能完全從紙幣上去掉三個零。

今日,印尼央行高級副行長Mirza Adityaswara表示,重新調整紙幣面額必須是在經濟穩定時進行。“現在,這項工作可以做。匯率一直處於動盪中,但這將不會產生太大的影響。主要問題在於經濟必須穩定。”

該國央行指出,引入貨幣新單位既不會削減購買力,也不會導致匯率波動。

印尼盾是目前世界上與美元比價最低的貨幣之一,該國紙幣最大面額為100000,最小是1000。

2016年12月20日星期二

真相曝光!高盛:中國資金外流高達1.1兆美元


高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 全球投資研究部亞洲區執行董事鄧敏強的團隊周五 (16 日) 警告,自去年 8 月至今年 11 月,中國資金外流的規模其實高達 1.1 兆美元,比人行官方公布的 5400 億美元還高出一倍多。

高盛估計近年中國資金外流實際規模。深色塊:近期不尋常跨境人民幣流動;淺色塊:根據外管局在岸外匯結算數據推算的外匯資金流。
高盛估計近年中國資金外流實際規模。深色塊:近期不尋常跨境人民幣流動;淺色塊:根據外管局在岸外匯結算數據推算的外匯資金流。

鄧敏強等人發布報告指出,他們的統計加入了人行旗下中國國家外匯管理局 (SAFE) 的資金流數據,包括被視為獲准的中國企業需求,以及透過離岸人民幣市場流出的資金。鄧表示,今年 6 月以來的數據一再暗示,人行拋售外匯的規模遠大於官方外匯儲備數據所暗示,「平均每個月的差距約 250 億美元」。

高盛指出,單單上個月,淨流出中國的資金規模已達 692 億美元,遠高於 6 月份以來每月平均的 500 億美元左右。SAFE 據顯示,上月透過人民幣支付流出的資金,已由 10 月份的 290 億美元跳上 336 億美元,持續 14 個月失血。

反映人行資產負債表上外匯規模的人行人民幣部位,上個月也暴減 3830 億元人民幣 (550 億美元),創 1 月以來最大降幅。

光銀國際研究部主管林樵基對《彭博社》表示,今年底至明年第一季,中國資金外流及人民幣貶值將持續甚至惡化,因投資人對美元轉強及中國經濟情況越來越擔憂。他預估人民幣兌美元「非常快」將貶至 7 元,而儘管中國當局近期內將繼續加緊控管資金,但長期而言仍不改推動人民幣國際化。

金银业贸易场:明年初金价下试1100美元后或见底回升

FX168财经报社(香港) 香港金银业贸易场永远名誉会长张德熙,最新当选新一届理监事会理事长。张德熙表示,过去2年多,金价由每盎司约1600美元的水平不断回落,而投资者持黄金长仓比例多,使得金价难以向上,并出现技术性的向下大调整。

他指出,美国预料明年或会加息三次,对金价造成压力,但特朗普上场后的政策未明朗或可抵销加息对金价造成之压力,预料金价在环球经济不明朗性众多的情况下,明年可有上升动力,预计金价在明年初下试每盎司1100美元,甚至稍穿此水平之后,或会在今年第一季见底回升,金价约回升至1400美元的水平并企稳,不排除可再上试1600美元的水平。

对于近日有市场消息指出,中国因人民币贬值而收紧进口黄金,张德熙表示,确实感觉到中国对进口黄金有收紧,因人民币贬值对美元需求增加,减慢黄金进口可使得令人民币转换成美元的速度减慢。

对于港交所(00388)行政总裁李小加表示,会积极筹备在深圳前海设立大宗商品交易平台。张德熙认为,金银业贸易场与港交所在商品现货期货等方面可作配合,并且建议港交所可考虑利用金银业贸易场位于前海之仓库。

张德熙透露,贸易场位于前海之保税仓库储存量可达1500吨,建设期约23年,在该仓库落成前会借用工商银行之临时仓库,目前临时仓库正在申请中,预料明年第一季可落实。

另一方面,六福金融分析师黄威表示,对于黄金而言,美国加息提速无疑是新的利空因素,部分投资者原先预计的“买消息,卖事实”走势并未上演;在美元指数持续大幅上升的压逼之下,金价当即急挫,后续一度跌破1130美元,日线上RSI的底背离及MACD的低位金叉全部失效,空头再度掌控局势,短线黄金已呈严重超卖,但目前为止,多头的反攻力度仍极为有限,如果0.764倍回调位1124美元失守,金价只能进一步下探去年底低位,即1070美元左右的区间寻求支撑,而最近的反弹阻力则是下行趋势线1155美元。


馬來西亞令吉遭無情拋棄 貶破1998金融風暴水準




馬來西亞央行近日進場干預匯市,希望挽救頻頻破底的令吉走勢,但似乎成效不彰。令吉兌美元 19 日再跌 0.1%,最多來到 4.4805 兌 1 美元,寫下 1998 年 1 月亞洲金融風暴以來的新低。

據《彭博社》報導,自美國總統大選之後,令吉跌幅已經超過 6%,是新興亞洲受傷最重的地方。今天上午 9:52,令吉貶破 4.48,之後就未大幅變動,但已寫下 1998 年 1 月以來匯率最低的紀錄。

市場預計,美國總統當選人川普 (Donald Trump) 的財政政策,將刺激通膨,而使新興市場貨幣流出。而馬來西亞央行 11 月採取行動,要求國內營運的本地銀行和外資銀行,不可參與離岸無本金交割遠期外匯(non-deliverable forward,簡稱 NDF)市場,市場解讀為變相實施資本管制,也造成恐慌情緒,反而更進一步打擊令吉。

瑞穗銀行在新加坡的資深經濟學家 Vishnu Varathan 表示,現在情況是多重打擊的結果,市場不願持有令吉現金,外資大幅拋售債券,而投資人擔心資本管制風險,共同造成令吉的重挫。

俄駐土大使遭射殺 俄外交部:這是恐怖攻擊!美凱瑞:準備好提供土俄協助

俄國駐土耳其大使Andrey Karlov遭射殺,槍手行兇後仍繼續持槍與現場其他人對峙。(圖:AFP)


《CNBC》報導,俄國外交部發言人 Maria Zakharova 本週一接受記者採訪表示,俄國駐土耳其大使 Andrey Karlov 遭人開槍射殺身亡。

「今日安卡拉攻擊事件中,俄國駐土耳其大使 Andrey Gennadyevich Karlov 受傷致死,我們將此視為恐怖分子行動。」

NBC 製作人表示,槍手在射殺土耳其大使後開始掃射。目擊者 Associated Press 攝影師表示,槍手在現場大喊「真主至大」Allahu akbar。
國安消息來源表示,兇手是在安卡拉工作的警察。土耳其國營媒體則報導表示,攻擊事件爆發後槍手已經「被消滅。」

美國國務卿 John Kerry 譴責這起事件兇手,並表示美國會幫助土俄調查這起事件。「我們已經準備好提供俄國與土耳其協助調查這次卑劣的攻擊,這也是對全世界所有外交人員安全地代表國家之權力的攻擊。」

烏克蘭銀行接連倒閉,政府將最大銀行國有化



烏克蘭危機作為 2014 年最大的國際政治焦點似乎已漸漸淡出民眾的視線,但實際上其影響不只是在政治或軍事上,連帶讓烏克蘭的金融體系也產生問題。基於與俄羅斯的關係惡化,許多銀行業務出現問題,再加上國內政治腐敗,許多民眾已不再信任銀行,在 2015 年烏克蘭許多銀行接連倒閉,如今烏克蘭最大的私人銀行也將被政府收歸國有,以防金融體系崩潰。

在去年 7 月,烏克蘭的國有銀行 Oschadbank 就曾因為克里米亞回歸俄羅斯後,拒絕償還當地民眾的存款而與俄羅斯引起糾紛,俄羅斯直接將當地銀行資產變賣,其中有約 3000 萬美元資產是屬於烏克蘭大亨 Igor Kolomoisky,他也是半島上另一家 Privatbank 的大股東。俄羅斯官方表示,這筆錢將用以補償儲戶。而今年 2 月俄羅斯存款保護基金發言人 Andrey Melnikov 指出,因為烏克蘭沒打算還錢,所以克里米亞向 Oschadbank 以及 Privatbank 的借款也無須償還。烏克蘭與俄羅斯的紛爭,使其銀行體系遭受打擊,原本正常的業務管道也紛紛斷鏈。

官員也不信任銀行

不僅如此,烏克蘭國內的貪腐問題也越來越嚴重,迫於歐盟壓力,烏克蘭國會在今年 11 月立法讓將近 5 萬名政府官員及議員公開其財產清單,而其中所揭露出的訊息更為驚人。包括總理 Volodymyr Groysman 在內,大部分官員的資產都存在國外或以外幣計價,非常明顯的是在迴避烏克蘭國內的銀行體系。由反貪腐機構提出的報告顯示,甚至是負責穩定貨幣體系的央行行長 Valeriya Gontareva 也將約 180 萬美元的資產存放在美國。不過也有經濟學家表示,這是因為政府官員必須要為自己未來的貪污找正當的收入理由,所以不能只申報國內資產。

而在這些富有的政治菁英都在迴避銀行體系的同時,18 日烏克蘭政府在內閣會議後表示將會把其最大的私人銀行 Privatbank 收歸國有以避免因這兩年來與俄羅斯衝突所造成的金融危機。政府強調,此舉是銀行與國際貸款機構之間協調後的結果,將確保銀行體系的穩定運行。政府聲明指出,烏克蘭銀行這兩年來一直依靠從國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)貸款而來的數十億美元,且陸續清理了幾家銀行部門,但由 Igor Kolomoisky 控股的 Privatbank 其存款佔了整個烏克蘭的 1/3 ,而其不足資本仍有數十億美元,為了避免其倒閉後致使金融體系崩潰,政府決定將其收歸國有。

與政治糾纏不清

Igor Kolomoisky 不僅是銀行大亨,其業務遍及烏克蘭各行各業,包括電信及石油,且本身也是對抗俄羅斯分離主義的金主之一。不過此舉仍然遭受到部分官員的反對,因為這等於是拿納稅人的錢去資助富豪。不過事實上,烏克蘭並沒有將私人銀行國有化的相關規範,據稱政府計劃通過央行發行國內債券以注入新的資本到銀行。

央行行長 Valeria Gontareva 表示,將會盡速公布細節讓整個銀行體系能順利過渡。不過,此聲明似乎也牽動著東部的戰情並傳出傷亡,且作為反分離主義的 Privatbank 也在上週被傳黑函指出,其國有化將會傷害銀行存戶並將破壞國家政治局勢。儘管表面上看, Privatbank 的國有化是為了滿足歐盟的援助條件,但仍然間接打擊了歐洲債市。

2016年12月18日星期日

Evidence Obama birth certificate 'fake' heading to Congress

http://www.wnd.com/2016/12/


Evidence that the document presented to the American public by Barack Obama as his Hawaiian birth certificate is fake soon will be heading to members of Congress, and the difficult discussions over what crimes may have been committed and what should be done could begin soon.
The atmosphere in Washington will be different under Trump, who will be inaugurated Jan. 20, since he publicly questioned Obama’s birth certificate in 2011. During this election season, he stated he now believes Obama was born in Hawaii.
But at a news conference Thursday, Maricopa County, Arizona, Sheriff Joe Arpaio, the only law enforcement officer to formally investigate the allegations of fraud, presented evidence that the image of the birth document posted by the White House was fraudulent.
One thing seems certain: The evidence will have to go elsewhere for action to be taken, since Arpaio, known as “America’s toughest sheriff” and innovator of such jail amenities as pink underwear and surplus Army tents in the desert heat for jail inmates, is leaving office Jan. 1 after more than two decades serving Phoenix-area residents, who had asked him for the birth certificate investigation.
His replacement already has stated, CBS News reported, that he “will cut off Arpaio’s investigation into Obama’s birth certificate.”
Mike Zullo, Arpaio’s lead investigator since 2011 on the birth certificate issue, told WND he wants to get the evidence to members of Congress for evaluation. It could support a Presidential Transparency Act, which would give secretaries of state across the nation the authority to investigate candidates with suspect qualifications.
“This is what we have learned. Every secretary of state is powerless to investigate a candidate,” he told WND. “They have to take everything on face value.”
That means a candidate whose qualifications are questioned cannot be reviewed by state secretaries of state, who run the elections
Zullo told WND that could be a very easy fix for the controversy that developed around Obama’s document.
The issue is that the U.S. Constitution requires the president to be a “natural-born citizen” but does not define the term. Scholarly works cited by the Founders defined it as a citizen at birth, born in the country to two citizens of the country, or merely the offspring of two citizens of the country.
The birth certificate Obama displayed on the White House website as “proof positive” of his eligibility states he was born in Hawaii to an American mother and a Kenyan father.
Some immediately pointed out alleged anomalies, questioning its validity, while others argued it also could prove his ineligibility because his father was not a citizen. Some of the lawsuits over the issue argued Obama was a dual citizen at birth through his father, contending the framers of the Constitution excluded dual citizens from qualifying as natural born citizens.
Get an autographed copy of the now historic, No. 1 bestselling book that forced Barack Obama to release his challenged “birth certificate” in 2011 and get the whole story about his contested constitutional eligibility.
Wheres_the_birth_certificate_vindicated
Eventually, just as the No. 1 bestseller “Where’s The Birth Certificate?” was combining with a challenge at that time from billionaire businessman Donald Trump to force Obama’s hand, Obama held a White House news conference to release a copy of his birth certificate.
Now, what has been described as the only official law enforcement investigation ever done into the Obama birth certificate has concluded it is “not authentic.”
See a video prepared by the investigators and released at a news conference on Thursday:
Jerome Corsi, Ph.D., WND senior staff writer and author of “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” was credited by sheriff’s officials with contributing to the investigation.
Corsi said Zullo and Arpaio “have done the United States a heroic service demonstrating by forensic analysis that the long form birth certificate produced in a White House news conference on April 27, 2011, as Barack Obama’s authentic birth certificate is a forgery.”
“The nine points of forgery between the Johanna Ah’nee birth certificate and Obama’s [long-form birth certificate] prove convincingly that the Ah’nee birth certificate was the source document from which the Obama LFBC was created.”
Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jerome Corsi
Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jerome Corsi
Corsi said Arpaio’s five-year effort “vindicates the extensive research WND conducted over years to bring this issue to the attention of the American public.”
The sheriff’s video said there were nine images on the Obama birth certificate that appear to be identical to, and copied from, another birth certificate issued in Hawaii just days after his birth.
That certificate belongs to Johanna Ah’nee.
Get a commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” T-shirt – sure to be a collector’s item.
The copied items include the word “Honolulu,” “Oahu” twice, three different Xs and two time stamps. The identical nature of the Xs raised serious questions since they would have been applied to original documents by moving a typewriter carriage and roller at the time.
Explained the investigator on the video:
Doesn’t it just make sense that Alvin Onaka’s stamp and the April 25th date stamp were lifted from someplace also? Ask yourself this question. If anyone presented you with a document in your life that was this suspect would you readily accept it or would you begin an intense vetting, be it a house title, a car title, a piece of currency, anything? Would you accept something this suspect if presented to you in your life? If you answered no, then ask yourself a second question, don’t the American people have a right to vet the documents that they are presented by public officials.
One of the experts who assisted in the investigation was Reed Hayes, a court-qualified handwriting and document examiner, who runs a business in Hawaii. He is on the board of the Scientific Association of Forensic Examiners and has been in business nearly 40 years.
What do YOU think? Sound off on Sheriff Joe’s report on Obama birth certificate
Forlabs, an Italian company that specializes in extracting information from multimedia files, also produced the results.
“We had two experts from two countries in separate disciplines of forensics that came to one conclusion: Barack Obama’s long form birth certificate it not authentic,” the report said.
During the news conference, Zullo quoted from the investigation by Hayes: “The (nail in the coffin) that proves that Certificate of Live Birth is inauthentic is the exact lineup of numerous entries on both [certificates].”
He said the experts likened the evidence to being as reliable as a fingerprint.
During his investigation, Zullo said he encountered unusual opposition from officials who would normally be expected to cooperate with investigators, such as hospital officials, state officials, and others in Hawaii.
He said that just increased his suspicions.
Arpaio said he, like Zullo, at the outset was ready to verify the document as valid and drop the issue.
“Five years ago I said one thing, show us the microfiche, the birth certificate and we’ll all go home,” he said.
But he couldn’t because of the evidence.
He confirmed plans to turn the results over to the federal government and Congress.
“Maybe some members of Congress will hold some hearings, open to the public regarding this matter. … If they can hold hearings … on underinflated footballs, why can’t you hold one on this?” he said. “Look at our evidence, just look at it.”
He said at the news conference that he was withholding some “sensitive” information so that the next step could be taken.
But he called it a “fake, fake birth certificate.”
The evidence
The sheriff’s office concluded: “It is the opinion of the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office that the birth certificate on your right, belonging to Johanna Ah’nee, was in fact used as a source document in the digital creation of Barack Obama’s long form birth certificate.”
The video notes nine points of “forgery.”
“What are the odds that two stamps in two separate boxes stamped by hand … days apart would have the exact same angle?” the investigators ask.
Get commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” postcards. And who knows what President Trump may do to get to the bottom of this controversy once and for all.
“It should be pointed out these stamps were looked at by two separate document examiners in two forensic disciplines on two continents,” the video explains.
WND reported when the news conference was announced how the issue had badgered Obama from before his first inauguration until well into his second term. Now, apparently, it’s raining on his legacy.
WND reported Obama explained he decided to release it because the Internet “chatter” was becoming a “distraction.”
At the time, the Washington Times described Obama as “visibly frustrated” and noted that a recent CBS News-New York Times poll showed 45 percent of registered Republican voters believe Obama was not born in the U.S.
President Obama
President Obama
But while the issue became known in liberal and left-leaning circles as the biggest “conspiracy” theory of all time, some document experts questioned the validity of the birth certificate Obama released. The question was posed, unsuccessfully, to the U.S. Supreme Court many times.
In 2012, Arpaio held a news conference that concluded there was probable cause to believe the document Obama released as an official government document is a computer-generated forgery.
Arapaio, known for his strict enforcement of immigration laws, commissioned the investigative team after local citizens presented him with a petition expressing concern that Obama might not be eligible for Arizona’s presidential ballot.
The sheriff even deputized preacher, pastor, author, radio host and former law enforcement officer Carl Gallups of the PPSIMMONS blog in his pursuit of the truth.
“This investigation and its forensic conclusions in my opinion will vindicate a lot of people. That vindication includes the sheriff and his investigator of course but also president-elect Donald Trump. It also vindicates millions of Americans who dared to ask questions about this nefarious birth certificate and have been lampooned and marginalized by certain members of the press and other operatives for doing so. The investigation also vindicates those in the press who did have the guts to speak to this and to spend time investigating it, like WND,” Gallups said.
“I have a feeling that this matter is not over. Not by a long shot. I cannot imagine that authorized federal authorities will now not step in and investigate this matter to its conclusion.”
Investigators at that time they believed forgers committed two crimes. First, they said it appeared the White House fraudulently created a forgery that it characterized as an officially produced governmental birth record. Second, the White House fraudulently presented to the residents of Maricopa County and to the American public at large a forgery represented as “proof positive” of President Obama’s authentic 1961 Hawaii long-form birth certificate.
The investigators also said they had developed credible evidence that Obama’s Selective Service card was a forgery, based on an examination of the postal date stamp on the document. Also, records of Immigration and Naturalization Service cards filled out by passengers arriving on international flights originating outside the United States in the month of August 1961, examined at the National Archives in Washington, D.C., were missing records for the week of President Obama’s birth.
Arpaio said then a “continuing investigation” was needed, and his investigators set to work.
‘Preposterous notion’
WND reported in 2015 when the issue was raised in a CNN interview in which anchor Jake Tapper excoriated Arpaio for questioning Obama’s document.
See the interview:
On CNN’s “The Lead,” Tapper said, “You’ve trafficked in this rather preposterous notion that Obama was not born in the United States and that he may have forged his birth certificate that he released.”
He continued, “Why would you risk your credibility on issues you care about – like illegal immigration, like law enforcement – by getting involved in this nonsense?”
“What do you mean ‘risk’?” Arpaio asked. “I’m the chief law enforcement officer elected by the people. I have a right to investigate and speak out. I’m not talking about where he came from. I don’t care where he came from. We’re working on a fraudulent, forged government document. That’s what we are doing.”
Tapper interjected, “You’re maintaining that the birth certificate that the president of the United States revealed and released to the public, you’re maintaining that that is fraudulent?”
Obama’s birth certificate: It’s still in the news after all these years. Now get the No. 1 bestselling book that forced the release of the document being challenged anew as fraudulent in an official law enforcement report.
Wheres_the_birth_certificate_vindicated
“That’s right,” Arpaio responded.
The CNN host asked, “Is there anyone, any credible law enforcement person outside of you and your organization and your contractors, who has any agreement with you on this?”
“No, they haven’t looked at it,” Arpaio said. “What, are you kidding? I’m probably the only law enforcement official who has looked into it. Nobody looks into it. They shy away from it.”
Once again, a flustered Tapper interrupted: “Because the president was born in Hawaii.”
“I don’t care where he was born,” Arpaio replied. “I’m talking about a fraudulent government document, a birth certificate. That’s all I’m concerned with. That’s a violation of the law.”
Listen to “Aaron Klein Radio” clip of Joe Arpaio discussing Obama’s birth certificate:
Zullo has noted that Hayes, a document examiner who has served as expert witness for Seattle law firm Perkins Coie – the firm that flew an attorney to Honolulu to personally deliver two paper copies of the birth certificate to the White House – has concluded in a signed affidavit that the document posted on the White House website is “entirely fabricated.”
Also, at the time Obama was born, only a short time after Hawaii was admitted as a state, there were a number of ways a Hawaiian birth certificate could have been obtained without the person having been born in Hawaii.
Americans skeptical
Six years into Obama’s administration, WND reported a poll revealed nearly one-quarter of American adults didn’t even believe he’s a U.S. citizen, let alone a “natural-born citizen,” and another 17 percent were unsure.
Rasmussen Reports found 41 percent of Republicans believed Obama is not an American citizen, a belief shared by 21 percent of those who are unaffiliated and 11 percent of Democrats.
“Just over 20 percent of Republicans and unaffiliated adults also are not sure, but only 7 percent of those in the president’s party share that doubt,” the polling organization said in a report titled “Have We Got A Conspiracy for You – 9/11? JFK? Obama’s Citizenship?”
Overall, 23 percent said the theory that Obama is not an American citizen is true, and another 17 percent said they weren’t sure. Sixty percent reject the theory as false.
Ironically, in recent months it’s been, Obama, his wife Michelle, Secretary of State John Kerry and even his former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, who have raised the issue over and over.
It was during an appearance in Nairobi, Secretary of State John Kerry said he thanked the Kenyan president for giving America “a president of the United States” – a comment alluding to the contested issue of where Obama was born.
Get a commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” T-shirt – sure to be a collector’s item.
Kerry told Kenya’s foreign minister he had a conversation with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the Olympic Games in Rio and President Obama’s birthplace:
I had the pleasure of beginning that meeting [with Kenyatta], as I want to begin this press conference this afternoon, by congratulating Kenya on something no nation’s athletes have ever before accomplished, and that is to win both the men’s and the women’s marathon races at the Olympic Games. Absolutely extraordinary. When I mentioned that to President Kenyatta, he promptly said to me, “Well, we also had a hand in helping you win a silver because the person who won came from Kenya.” (Laughter.)
“And I said, “Actually, Mr. President, you did better than a silver and a gold. You gave us a president of the United States.” (Laughter.) So you can see we had a very friendly and positive beginning to the conversation.
Watch the video of Kerry’s remarks:
Obama himself raised the question at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, during an address in which he urged Americans to elect Clinton.
“You know, there’s been a lot of talk in this campaign about what America’s lost – people who tell us that our way of life is being undermined by pernicious changes and dark forces beyond our control,” Obama said. “They tell voters there’s a ‘real America’ out there that must be restored. This isn’t an idea that started with Donald Trump. It’s been peddled by politicians for a long time – probably from the start of our Republic.
“And it’s got me thinking about the story I told you 12 years ago tonight, about my Kansas grandparents and the things they taught me when I was growing up. They came from the heartland; their ancestors began settling there about 200 years ago. I don’t know if they had their birth certificates, but they were there.”
The mention of “birth certificates,” which prompted laughter and cheers from the crowd, was a deviation from the president’s prepared remarks, and comes just two nights after his wife, first lady Michelle Obama, brought up the issue of her husband’s citizenship and faith during her speech to the DNC.
At that time, Michelle Obama said one of her jobs in the White House was to teach her daughters “to ignore those who question their father’s citizenship or faith.”
She was referencing the challenges to her husband’s constitutional qualification for office as a “natural born citizen.”
Hillary Clinton “went birther” during a campaign appearance in Charlotte, North Carolina when she tweeted, “Someone who has never forgotten where he came from. And Donald, if you’re out there tweeting: It’s Hawaii.” –Hillary on @POTUS
Get the No. 1 bestseller that forced Barack Obama’s hand to release his controversial ‘birth certificate,’ now being challenged in an official law enforcement report.
Among the many records the Obama camp has refused to release are the marriage license of his father (Barack Sr.) and mother (Stanley Ann Dunham), name-change records (Barry Soetero to Barack Hussein Obama), adoption records, records of his and his mother’s repatriation as U.S. citizens from Indonesia, baptism records, Noelani Elementary School (Hawaii) records, Punahou School financial aid or school records, Occidental College financial aid records, Harvard Law School records, Columbia senior thesis, Columbia College records, record with Illinois State Bar Association, files from his terms as an Illinois state senator, his law client list, medical records and passport records.

Get commemorative “Where’s the Birth Certificate?” postcards. And who knows what President Trump may do to get to the bottom of this controversy once and for all.

2016年12月17日星期六

注意!美联储加息对黄金其实是个好事情


周四美联储如期加息,并暗示明年还要加三次。这把黄金投资者吓坏了,黄金赶紧从十个月低点再跌40美元,至1122附近。

那么,美联储加息真是黄金的大克星吗?GoldCore研究主管Mark O'Byrne表示,投资者不必惊慌,尽管美联储预计加息三次,但是从过去经验看,通常不能兑现。

Mark O'Byrne指出,去年底美联储加息时,也预计今年会加息三次,但一年过去了,只加了一次。美联储做什么,比它说什么更重要。 实际上,2008年以来,美联储大多数年份都信誓旦旦说要加息,但到现在只加了两次。

obyrne121516-2

美联储的言行不一,欺骗了许多真诚的投资者。

去年底,金价在美联储加息后从1050附近开启了一轮中期行情。反观今日,市场氛围与当时何其相似。

obyrne121516-3

Mark O'Byrne指出,利率本身上涨并不利空黄金,利空黄金的是扣除通胀的真实利率水平的上升。而目前还看不到上升的迹象。

通过观察历史数据发现,利率上升实际上是利好黄金的。距目前最近的例子是2003-2006年期间,美联储将利率从1%上调至5.5%,金价从300多美元每盎司一路上涨至最高700多美元每盎司。

QQ截图20161216160522

Mark O'Byrne认为,即使美联储加息,利率水平也处于零附近,而且大多数主要经济体的水平也处于零附近。这意味着持有黄金几乎没有机会成本。

特别是考虑到,目前政府债券已经存在泡沫,而央行极度宽松的货币政策即将终结,明年由巨量债务引发的偿债危机可能引发市场动荡。另外,特朗普当选也有望增加黄金的资本收益。

Mark O'Byrne预计,短期来看,金价或继续承压至年底,有望测试1100美元/盎司,但明年作为分散投资和对冲即将到来的风险,黄金的吸引力将再度变大。



2016年12月15日星期四

嘉享灣單位遇竊 戶主失逾41萬元銀條

搬到氣咳

現場是西灣河嘉亨灣6座一個住宅單位,早上10時許,男戶主外出返回時,發現夾萬內共值41萬元銀條不翼而飛,懷疑被爆竊,立即報警求助。

  警方接報到場調查,暫時無人被捕。

新興市場投資教父:伊斯蘭新教法利好黃金 明年將漲15%

新興市場投資教父Mark Mobius在迪拜舉行的黃金交流會上表示,新的伊斯蘭教法黃金投資標準將帶來創新和變革,並推動實物黃金市場更加透明,黃金將迎來發展機遇期。





 


這次伊斯蘭黃金交流會由世界黃金協會(WGC)和伊斯蘭金融協會會計和審計組織(AAOIFI)以及Amanie Advisors顧問公司共同舉辦。
Mark Mobius表示,新標準是上帝的饋贈,黃金有了一個全球化的標準,這是具有開創性的。
Mobius博士讓觀眾注意到新興市場以及全球16億伊斯蘭民眾以及大約1億的投資者帶來的黃金潛在需求。


 


Mobius強調,伊斯蘭教法的新標準對確定基礎資產,如實物金幣、金條的所有權非常重要。
Mobius表示,新的伊斯蘭黃金投資標準正式出爐是看多明年以及更長期黃金走勢的重要原因。 Mobius預計,受美聯儲加息逐漸放緩,黃金實物需求增加等因素推動,到2017年年底金價將上漲15%。


 

黃金頭條網站此前文章提到,12月5日,由世界黃金協會(WGC)和伊斯蘭金融協會會計和審計組織(AAOIFI)共同製定的伊斯蘭教法黃金投資標準(以下簡稱新標準)在世界伊斯蘭銀行業會議上被正式批准。
新標準將使得全球16億伊斯蘭民眾以從未有過的便捷方式投資黃金市場,預計將帶來2.4萬億美元的新增投資規模,對伊斯蘭金融發展具有重要意義。
目前,伊斯蘭金融市場規模為2萬億美元,只佔世界總規模很小的一部分,主要的投資渠道為股票、房產以及伊斯蘭債券 (sukuk)。


http://www.goldtoutiao.com/post/1615533 

JohnMauldin:特式升市停不了靈活策略不可少


JohnMauldin



美國總統交接期幾乎每天都有新驚喜,候任總統特朗普的發言人透露,特朗普在6月已經沽清所有股票,比他當選和面對利益質疑早了幾個月,從他當選後股市屢創新高看來,特朗普似乎走得太心急。不過他現在需要專注其他問題,早些離場也有好處。

至于其他投資者,現在需要做的是決定增持還是減持。面對股市處于曆史高位,財務和貨幣政策也來到轉折期,調整資產配置非常重要。長遠而言,股票估值的變化有決定性作用。

筆者相信未來數年將出現一些史上最大的泡沫,無論在國家債務,還是在政府承諾方面,而且不只在美國,全世界也一樣,並可能發展成一場前所未見的全球危機,目前無法知道導火線是什麼,不過本人正密切留意意大利。

投資組合的架構對投資者能否平安度過這場危機非常重要,要留意的是,今天很多人趨之若鶩的被動式資產管理將會是最差,而且破壞性最大的投資策略,投資者應該考慮其他選擇。

美股估值高得離譜
首先我們來個溫故知新。投資者持有的股票代表一間企業的一部分,每股價值也就相當于公司整體價值的一部分,公司價值就是預期未來盈利的現價值,而「預期」代表了不確定,這也是股價和估值波動的原因。要量度股票估值,最常見的指標是市盈率,也就是投資者願意為未來盈利支付多少錢,目前有很多市盈率和其他估值指標,協助投資者認清估值是過高還是過低。

在過去一個世紀,美股市盈率大部分時間處于10到25倍之間,低過10倍代表股票估值被低估,高過25倍就是被高估。目前3個版本的美股市盈率都處于接近或者高于25倍的水平,即估值過高,意味美股並非處于另一個長期牛市開端。

CMG Capital Management創辦人布盧門撒爾(Steve Blumenthal)認為,畢非德指標(Buffett Indicator)是另一個值得參考的估值指標。畢非德指標用上市公司股票的總市值與國內生產總值(GDP)做對比,從而判斷股市估值有沒有過高或者過低,總市值比GDP高就是估值過高,股神自己說過這是他認為最准確的估值指標。上市公司股票的總市值比GDP更高看來有點奇怪,但有時候的確會這樣。

目前畢非德指標雖然已經從2014年的高位回落,但仍然比2008年金融危機前高,對股市好友而言,這並不是個好消息,因為這代表估值目前超過應有水平很多。

此外,根據研究公司Ned Davis Research(NDR)的分析,標准普爾500指數的合理水平應該是1635點左右,但現時標指已經升到2250點。估值過高的情況可以變得更加嚴重嗎?當然可以,九十年代的科網泡沫就是個好例子,因此目前的高水平並不代表股市已經到頂,只是說明投資者需要非常小心謹慎,尤其共和黨將進駐白宮,其他國家的情況也不穩定,歐洲和中國都可能出現危機,導致全球經濟衰退,到時美國也不能幸免。

通常經濟出現衰退,股市也會跌入熊市,標指不會只跌到合理水平那麼簡單,而是會跌至估值過低的程度,NDR估計可能會跌到1134左右,那就是較目前水平低50%。

NDR認為美股從2009年開始進入長期牛市,但筆者認為美股一直處于一個很長的熊市,只是2009年開始有一個明顯的牛市周期,而下一個伴隨全球衰退而來的嚴重熊市,才會為這個長期熊市畫上句號。美股早就應該調整,現在距離上個20%調整已經1955天,比曆史平均的635天多出三倍以上,當然主要拜聯儲局、日本央行和歐洲央行的量寬所賜。

綜合前述,美股估值肯定過高,但過去一個月仍然多次創新高,這是否意味這股升勢可以持續到明年?

這次升市其中一個原因,是市場憧憬特朗普與共和黨控制的國會將增加基建和國防開支,但這並非已經確定的事,就算已經確定,通常在政府開支增加的時候,股市估值會下跌。

通脹加息不利升市
可能有人反駁,估值低是因為經濟增長低,增加開支就是為了推高增長,但如果你相信政府效率比私營企業低,那麼政府增加開支就是更多資金被錯配,對股市估值來說不是好事。

另一個升市理據是特朗普的新政策可刺激經濟,而且聯儲局可能延遲加息將推高通脹,對股市有利,但通脹其實不會來得那麼快。除了1979年至1981年外,股市在通脹上升期都是下跌【圖】,沒有上升,原因就是資源錯配。當然,除了增加開支外,特朗普政府還有其他動作,例如減稅、減少監管等等,令美國更加親商,但到底這些措施能否抵消開支和通脹上升的影響則是未知數。

另一方面,在利率上升時,股市的升勢通常不會持久,更有趣的是,全球股市在這些時候表現會比美股好,這意味投資者需要跳出傳統的多元化投資策略,尋找其他回報方法。

目前沒有證據顯示新牛市在望,但也不代表股市已經見頂。股市估值過高的時間可以比想象中長很多,而且可以變得更加嚴重。很多人都像我一樣擔心後市,但股市應該會在我們放下憂慮繼續入市之後才會見頂。

筆者覺得股市已經進入短線模式,想要繼續向上,因此基調是向好的,但同時波動性也在增加,美債等其他資產亦受挫,看來目前的市況令很多投資者感到混亂迷惘,這種時候最好是放手讓其他人來做決定,被動式資產管理受歡迎也是這個原因;但這等如聽天由命,是很不安全的做法,尤其是未來市況肯定會更加波動,投資者想要理想回報就應該返回主動式管理,要采取多元化的策略。

面對股市估值過高,經濟政治有很不穩定,2017年將是起落甚大的一年,投資者一定要做好准備。

共和黨人提出的減稅計劃中,企業減稅措施的影響肯定比個人減稅措施大很多。特朗普提出的最高企業稅率是15%,眾議院議長瑞安(Paul Ryan)則提出20%,看來這方面將有一番角力。

減稅計劃內藏玄機
不過,正如西方諺語所雲:「魔鬼藏在細節里」(the devil is in the details),眾議院賦稅委員會主席布雷迪(Kevin Brady)建議推出類似增值稅(VAT)的稅,並大幅削減企業稅,且可能向進口原料征收關稅。瑞安則建議大幅削減股息稅和資本利得稅,這些都會對企業盈利有很正面的影響。

然而,細看這些建議內容就會發現很多問題,例如向原料征稅將導致通脹大升,因為美國根本沒有足夠的原料去生產所有產品。雖然布雷迪的建議應可吸引外國公司到美國生產原料,但前提是其他國家沒有提出更加有利他們的稅務建議,市場是不是過分憧憬未來政策?沒有人可以肯定,但共和黨肯定需要開始整理一下未來施政策略。

筆者始終對未來抱謹慎樂觀的態度,雖然改革一定無法令所有人滿意,但至少是個大幅重塑整個稅制的機會。大部分美國人應該都會同意,目前稅制非常不健全,早就應該全面檢討。

也許這次市場猜得對,企業稅制大幅改革對盈利大有幫助,股票估值也將因此大升,因此投資者目前應該持多頭(long)策略,但需要能夠靈活變通,可以因應市況轉變而作出調整,而且因為隨時抽身離場做好准備,因為稅制改革有任何差錯都會造成災難性的影響。

金融市場討厭不穩定性,如果在施政策略細節出爐前,有人泄露了不利市場的風聲,整個牛市就會崩塌。特朗普和他的團隊應該很明白這種風險,只是希望他們的下屬──那些最有可能泄露風聲的人──也清楚了解這一點。

2016年12月12日星期一

特朗普入主白宮背後一個被忽略的因素


時寒冰
“朕遇光武,當並驅於中原,未知鹿死誰手。”《晉書·石勒載記下》中的這句話,意思是說不知在角逐中,政權將落在誰的手裡。
奧巴馬很快期滿卸任(下圖),希拉里與特朗普拼死搏殺,爭奪入主白宮的機會。





希拉里在與特朗普競選的過程中,幾乎一直認為自己已經勝券在握。在10月26日生日當天,希拉里直接寫下了這樣的話為自己祝福:‘Happy birthday to this future president.’(祝未來的美國總統生日快樂!)






得意之情溢於言表。希拉里甚至沒有準備敗選演講——從希拉里的敗選演講來看,顯然是臨時倉促準備的,因為這篇演講出現多處諸如語法這樣的低級錯誤。
然而,最終希拉里死在了特朗普手裡。
希拉里為什麼失敗?
她兩次出來說話,給了兩個原因。
第一次給出的原因:她歸咎於聯邦調查局局長詹姆斯·科米(下圖),希拉里認為,科米在臨近大選投票日前宣布重啟對“郵件門”的調查導致了自己的敗選





第二次,希拉里認為社交網絡(Facebook和Twitter等)大量的假新聞導致了自己的失敗。因此,她督促國會議員關注這個問題。希拉里說:“我想特別提到一個威脅,這應使所有美國人,共和黨人、民主黨人,無黨派人士特別是我們國會議員們關注:惡意假新聞和欺騙宣傳流行病今年已風靡社交網絡……現在很清楚,所謂'假新聞'可能對世界的現實後果。問題不在於政治或黨派傾向。人們的生活處於危險之中”。
希拉里終於認識到了一個非常重要的原因——假新聞,但她認識反了。
導致希拉里敗選的假新聞並非是Facebook和Twitter等上的假新聞,而是美國主流媒體(或說傳統媒體)的傾向性所營造的虛假氛圍,誤導了民眾——當然也誤導了希拉里本人。
此次總統大選期間,美國主流媒體的傾向性眾所周知。他們對特朗普的負面新聞集中報導,添油加醋進行強化的同時,對希拉里的負面消息進行弱化,甚至乾脆就不報導。

這種偏頗造成了完全相反的結果:它激起了民眾的反感和抵觸情緒,使得支持特朗普的選民投票率大大提升,而希拉里則由於民意調查一直領先特朗普而導致支持她的選民有所麻痺大意,投票的支持率受到了一定的影響。
筆者惜墨如金,為什麼要寫這個過去的事情呢?
我真正想說的是,無論是在美國,還是在其他國家(確切地說應該是“尤其是其他國家”),主流媒體都正在被民眾拋棄,很多所謂的主流媒體將陸續死亡!
我舉一個小例子。 9月份,筆者在北京參加了一場公益演講活動。主辦方在京城某知名媒體(發行量位居前三)發了廣告,幾天內只有幾個人報名,後來我和功夫財經在各自的微信公眾號發了預告,兩個小時報名4千多人
這種差異可謂天壤之別。
為什麼有這麼大的差異?
這裡麵包含著一個客觀性問題。

主流媒體的基礎是傳播最新的新聞,但這種新聞必須客觀——至少你必須努力追求客觀,但這正是主流媒體不可解決的問題。儘管所有媒體都明白客觀是新聞的生命,但是,主流媒體是由相關投資方或者乾脆是由政府控制的,本身有自己的利益訴求,而且,採編人員無論多麼想讓自己客觀,都免不了帶出自己的傾向性。而當這種傾向性與民意抵觸的時候,主流媒體自己並不明白(或者不願意明白)。
   
事實上,這種假設在現實中並不存在。
實際情況可能還要糟糕得多!
很多主流媒體以為自己控制著傳統渠道,不斷把自己的意志和觀點強加給讀者、觀眾,他們相信自己可以改變民意、操縱民意。他們無視權力肆意踐踏弱者權益的現實,他們無視正義被欺凌的現象,他們無視弱者渴望救助的眼神……他們眼裡只有讚歌。他們像一群被割了嘰嘰的太監一樣用令人憎惡的語調和蹩腳的令人作嘔歌詞嘰嘰歪歪地唱著讚歌,以此換取主人扔的肉骨頭。

儘管此間有少量有良知的媒體從業人員勇敢地站出來吶喊,但最終,他們都擺脫不了被自己供職的媒體開除的命運,更糟糕的結果,甚至是遭到被觸犯利益的相關黑手謀殺。
在社交媒體沒有出現的時候(就世界範圍而言,社會媒體分為兩種,一種是社交媒體,一種是中國社交媒體,本文中特指社交媒體),主流媒體想對民眾洗腦是有效果的,他們可以通過十年如一日的說謊對大眾進行洗腦,成功改變了許多信息渠道狹窄的人的思維模式。
但是,革命性的改變在社交媒體出現後發生了。
社交媒體與傳統媒體相比,最可貴的一點是,它只搭建平台,讓真實的聲音自由傳播! ——我絲毫不否認其中有假消息的出現,但在這樣的平台裡,假消息很快就會被識破。在透明的環境中,假消息是沒有生命力的而不透明的環境才是假新聞賴以大行其道的根本原因。
特朗普比希拉里更早地認識到了這一點。因此,特朗普孜孜不倦地在社交媒體上製造話題,打造影響力,而希拉里主要依托主流或傳統媒體的力量爭取民意的支持。
從這個角度來看,特朗普比希拉里更具有超前的眼光。
如果傳統媒體不找回自己的良知,不找回自己生存的根本客觀性,傳統媒體只會加速自己被淘汰的步伐,儘管一些主流媒體也開始借助網絡苟延殘喘,但他們由於眼睛盯著肉骨頭依然無法做回正常人的狀態。
主流媒體正在死亡,但並非所有的主流媒體都要走向死亡,那些認識到自己問題並及時修正,迅速向社交媒體靠近的媒體,將為自己贏得新生的機會。當然,我指的是可能性。
主流媒體應該明白:老百姓不是傻子,民意不可欺,失去客觀性,失去公正,失去最起碼的正義感與價值觀,失去最基本的底線,被民眾拋棄只是時間問題。


http://shihb.blog.sohu.com/

2016年12月9日星期五

德銀累行家!訴訟文件出事 曝露他行操縱銀價「天機」


2016-12-08 18:20:00 HKT

8個月前,德意志銀行了結一宗指控該行操縱黃金和白銀價格的訴訟。彭博報道,原告現在聲稱,和解協議所披露出的文件,為瑞銀集團、滙豐控股(005)、加拿大豐業銀行及其他公司操縱白銀市場提供「確鑿證據」。

買賣相關期貨合約的個人和實體,於2014年在曼哈頓聯邦法院發起訴訟,周三就此案提交的文件中出現了上述指控。

原告稱,德意志銀行交出的檔案顯示,交易員和提交員每天事先打電話協調交易,從而操縱白銀現貨市場,合謀確定報給客戶的價差,使用非法策略來操縱價格。

原告在提交文件中表示:「原告現在能夠憑借直接、確鑿的證據申辯」。這些證據包括秘密電子聊天紀錄--涉及到多家金融機構的白銀交易員和提交員多年來精心配合、大範圍共謀操縱價格。這個新騙局「遠遠超出了先前指控的合謀」。

報道指,原告正尋求以上述補充指控發起新訴訟的許可。他們擬提出的指控將案件範圍拓展到了起初被起訴的四家銀行之外,讓巴克萊、BNP Paribas Fortis SA、渣打(2888)和美國銀行的子公司也成為被告。一位法官今年駁回原告對瑞銀的起訴,但允許他們針對該行發起一項新訴訟。


one of these home? Prince Charles is shown Bank of England's vaults where 400,000 gold bars worth £100BILLION are stored


By Rebecca English Royal Correspondent 19:21 GMT 07 Dec 2016, updated 22:23 GMT 07 Dec 2016

  • Prince Charles looked thoroughly impressed by the vastness of the vault
  • This is the prince's first visit back to the Bank since 2002
  • Each bar weighs around 13kg and is worth £366,501 at today's price 
  • The aim of the visit was to 'recognise and celebrate the Bank's mission to promote the good of the people of the UK 

As jokes go it probably wasn't the most tactful, but at least it tickled Prince Charles.

On a royal visit to the Bank of England today, Governor Mark Carney told the heir to throne as he sat down with a group of deputies in his historic office for a private briefing: 'A tremendous amount of mistakes have been made at this table!'

The prince's tour came at the personal invitation of Mr Carney, who visited him at Clarence House in February.

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Prince Charles is shown around the gold vaults at the Bank of England.  The chambers hold around 400,000 bars of gold worth more than £100 billion
Prince Charles is shown around the gold vaults at the Bank of England. The chambers hold around 400,000 bars of gold worth more than £100 billion
This is the prince's first visit back to the bank since 2002. Each gold bar weighs around 13kg and is worth £366,501 at today's price
This is the prince's first visit back to the bank since 2002. Each gold bar weighs around 13kg and is worth £366,501 at today's price

The aim of the visit was, ostensibly, to 'recognise and celebrate the Bank's mission to promote the good of the people of the UK by maintaining monetary and financial stability'.

During his tour of the building Charles was given a private viewing of more than £100 billion worth of gold.

The underground vault at the bank contains around 400,000 gold bars, each weighing around 13kg and worth £366,501 at today's price.

Prince Charles visits Mark Carney at The Bank of England

The vaults provide safe keeping for the gold reserves of the country and overseas central banks  
The vaults provide safe keeping for the gold reserves of the country and overseas central banks  
The prince toured the Bank of England to recognise and celebrate the central Bank's mission to promote the good of the people of the UK by maintaining monetary and financial stability
The prince toured the Bank of England to recognise and celebrate the central Bank's mission to promote the good of the people of the UK by maintaining monetary and financial stability

A group of schoolchildren from Virginia Primary School in Tower Hamlets, East London, were attempting to lift one of the bars on display.

Charles asked them: 'So, are you going to have to write an essay about this?'

Before he left the Prince went into his private briefing from bank staff on issues including house price inflation, cyber security and the system used by the Bank of England for settling high-value payments in real time. 

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