2016年4月12日星期二

全球央行吹响“宽松”号角 黄金冲击1260白银疯涨


FX168讯 国际现货黄金周二(4月12日)亚市盘初曾进一步刷新1259.60美元的近三周高位,随后回落至1255美元附近盘整。周一(4月11日)因全球主要央行继续实施超低利率的预期升温,且美联储货币政策的不确定性打压美元走软,金价获得提振大涨逾1%,并刷新1258.70美元的近三周高位,而白银更是一度上涨近4%,接近16美元关口。

主要央行宽松预期升温 金价升至近三周高位

由于近期欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BOJ)都有意进一步扩大宽松措施,且美联储货币政策的不确定性以及疲软的经济数据也激发避险情绪升温,推高了投资者的黄金需求。

周一美元兑一篮子货币下跌0.5%,对黄金市场起到普遍支撑作用;国际金价当天大涨逾1.3%,并触及3月22日以来最高的每盎司1258.70美元。

(黄金30分钟 来源:FX168财经网)

其它贵金属方面,银价表现好于金价,因交易基金持续增持银,黄金/银交易比率下降给银价提供了额外支撑。

周一现货白银上涨3.9%,报每盎司15.95美元;现货铂金涨2%,报每盎司985.12美元;现货钯金升1.1%,报每盎司544.93美元。

德国商业银行分析师Daniel Briesemann称,“多家央行奉行非常宽松的货币政策,应该推动金价走得更高。欧洲央行已经扩大了国债购买计划,且没有排除进一步刺激措施。”

在对于欧元区通胀前景的担忧不断加剧的背景下,欧洲央行的官员们在3月份的会议上讨论了更大幅度的降息、免除部分存款适用负利率的政策。

目前以欧元计算的金价已经自3月30日以来首次突破每盎司1100欧元大关。

另一方面,日本央行负利率的尝试效果不佳,而可用的手段也在变少。分析师推测央行下次进行宽松会聚焦于购入股市的资产。

法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)首席经济学家尾形和彦周一(4月11日)在报告中称,该行目前预期日本央行(BOJ)将在今年4月扩大宽松举措,原先预期为6月,但进一步扩大负利率对央行来说可能十分困难。

另外,今年美联储收紧货币政策的预期减弱,帮助金价在今年首季录得近30年来最佳季度表现,此前美联储在去年12月进行了近10年来首次升息。

纽约联储主席杜德利上周五曾表示,美联储必需对升息采取谨慎的态度,因为持续的外部风险威胁美国经济。

美联储4月加息或告吹 6月仍存在可能性

美国达拉斯联储主席柯普朗(Robert Steven Kaplan)周一表示,对在6月中的政策会议上决定是否加息持“非常开放的态度”,此番言论似乎消除了本月稍晚会议行动的可能,因经济形势还不明朗。

柯普朗称,“在某个时候我会提倡采取下一步举措,但顺带一提,不是现在。”

柯普朗重申要对加息保持“谨慎和耐心”,他并称4月26-27日召开政策会议时,要研判强劲就业增长还是疲弱经济增长是今年第一季的持续特征,还为时尚早。

另外,美国总统奥巴马周一与美联储主席耶伦(Jannet Yellen)会面,并讨论了劳工市场和经济面临的可能风险,同时还讨论美国近期和长期的经济前景。

耶伦上周四(4月7日)也曾再度发表讲话称,尽管在发生金融危机及大萧条以来的最严重衰退之后,经济取得了“巨大进步”,但依然认为美国劳动力市场存在一定程度的松弛。同时,美元升值对经济构成拖累。

眼下多数分析师预期美联储会在6月升息,期货市场则对此高度怀疑,显示或许到12月才可能收紧政策。

麦格理集团全球利率及外汇策略师Thierry Albert Wizman表示,“底线在于,4月加息看似不太可能。”不过,他补充道,FOMC认为渐进加息路径仍为合适之举,6月仍有加息的可能性。

加拿大帝国行业银行(CIBC)表示,从美联储主席耶伦的表态、美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的普遍观点来看,若核心通胀比FOMC委员们当前预期的更持久,美联储将更坚定的转向6月加息,将令美元收复部分近期录得的跌幅。

金价涨势强劲 机构整体情绪乐观

凯投宏观经济学家Gambarini表示,预计美国通胀压力将会使实际利率处在低水平,增加黄金的吸引力;同时利率上涨也未必一定意味着金价的下跌,因为欧洲还有诸多不确定性,比如英国退欧;因此仍预计今年年底金价在1350美元/盎司水平。

加拿大皇家银行(RBC)称,美联储更为鸽派的立场、实际利率下滑,以及对实体黄金的基本需求好转,使得黄金前景更为积极。

RBC将2016年黄金均价预估上调9%,至每盎司1250美元。同时预计在2016年剩余时间,金价将在每盎司1200-1300美元波动,价格随着时间推移逐渐上涨。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)上调今年黄金均预期10%至1270美元/盎司,将明年金价预期上调12%至1313美元/盎司。

瑞士信贷预计,到2017年一季度,金价将能够涨至1350美元/盎司水平,不过2018年年初将有所回落,受到全球经济改善和利率上涨的影响。

法国外贸银行商品分析师Bernard Dahdah预计未来一个月金价将在1200-1250美元/盎司区间波动;他表示美联储加息与否左右着金价的走势,目前许多分析师预计美联储将在6月加息。

华侨银行(OCBC)分析师Barnabas Gan表示:“市场对全球经济有些紧张,而黄金是受偏爱的避险资产。短期黄金市场将依然受到支撑,但今年晚些时候,金价会有些回落,因为美联储将会有两次加息。

但值得注意的是,据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)上周五(4月8日)发布的数据显示,对冲基金和货币经理在截至4月5日当周减少了黄金期货和期权净多头头寸,不过仍距离两个月高位不远。

全球最大黄金支持上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust持金量上周五下跌,总持有量减少了0.22%至817.81吨。

校对:Sarah

伊斯兰金融体系下黄金标准或新创数百吨实物黄金需求


FX168讯 近几年各国央行的大幅宽松政策使得一些回归金本位的声音开始出现,而与此同时,在伊斯兰金融系统中,金本位却已经先行一步。

一名为伊斯兰金融机构的会计和审计组织工作的沙利亚法专家Mohd Daud Bakar表示:“目前已经在最好一稿了,非常接近最终结果。”

据悉,在这伊斯兰教沙利亚法的标准下,投资者们将只能投资实业、伊斯兰债券和一些股票。据专家称,由于实物背书的标准,Comex黄金并不符合沙利亚法标准,但新加坡的黄金合约却符合标准。

世界黄金协会(WGC)的主管Natalie Dempster表示:“数以百吨的新黄金需求将就此被创造出来,这一标准会弥补市场的一个重要缺口。”

WGC称,在沙利亚法标准下,黄金ETF符合标准。

据悉,这一黄金标准将在今年晚些时候完成,在摩洛哥、迪拜或者印尼和马来西亚进行公开听证。

校对:冷静

Yes, the Dollar Should Be Backed by Gold...


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – “What if you were appointed to head the Fed? In your first week on the job, what would you do?”

The question was not exactly serious. Neither was the answer.

“We’d call in sick.”

Drying Winds, Hungry Cattle

We are on our way to the family ranch in northwestern Argentina. We’ll spend a couple of days in Buenos Aires… then fly up to Salta.

From there, it’s a six-hour drive, up and over the mountains, on dirt roads – stopping by a cattle ranch to inspect some of our animals – until we finally reach lasala, our ranch headquarters.

It’s been a hard year in the mountains.

Normally, we get about 5 inches of rain annually. But this year, the ranch has gotten only half its usual allotment. All of that moisture falls in January and February. Not another drop will drip on the ranch until next year.

That leaves another nine months of drying winds and hungry cattle.

But that is just the beginning of the bad news… More to come when we report from the ranch later this week.

In the meantime, we return to tackling the world’s problems.

A Return to Gold

Drought, old age, traffic congestion, meanness, purple drink, bad taste, rap, suburbs, cancer, government, Hillary Clinton, restaurant music, shorts, Facebook, obesity – there are a lot of things wrong in the world.

And most of them are not easily put right.

But there are some problems that could be solved overnight. Economic and financial problems, for example, solve themselves… if you let them.

Almost all the macro-money wounds suffered by the modern world are self-inflicted. Central banks and treasury departments around the world keep shooting themselves in the foot. But rather than stop manipulating the system… they buy another pair of shoes.

If we were miraculously appointed by President Trump to run the Fed, our first act would be to put the gun down.

We would announce that, henceforth, anyone waiting for the next rate hike would have to wait a long time. Because we wouldn’t be making any rate hikes… or rate cuts either. Instead, interest rates would have to take care of themselves. Lenders and borrowers would set their own rates.

But what about if banks got into trouble?

Ah… we’d take care of that too. We’d point out that the Fed would no longer lend to them in an emergency.

Our announcement: “To any bank that runs out of money: Drop dead.”

Then, we would put the entire Fed balance sheet – the more than $4 trillion in dodgy bonds it bought over the last eight years – up for sale.

And we would send layoff notices to the entire staff… telling them to clean out their desks, admonishing them that henceforth they would have to seek honest employment or try to land a job on Wall Street.

Had we the power, we would take one further step: We would declare that Americans could use whatever currency they wanted, that the dollar would once again be exchangeable for a fixed quantity of gold, and that the U.S. Treasury would accept any major currency – including bitcoin – in payment of taxes.

See how easy it would be? All of the heavy lifting could be accomplished before lunchtime on our first Monday on the job.

Then we would slip out the back of the Eccles Building… with luck, just before posse caught up to us.

Solid Dollar

And yet, those simple changes would eliminate most of the money troubles facing the U.S.

With no further gas coming in, the debt bubble would deflate. Bad investments, bad business, and overpriced assets would all lose air… and disappear.

The dollar would be solid again. It would represent real value, not counterfeit wealth.

Borrowing would be based on real savings, not just more hollow credits.

And – with only scarce capital to work with (rather than an unlimited supply of phony-baloney credit) – investors and entrepreneurs would be careful about what they did with their investments.

They would put capital to work only in projects that increased the real value of America’s assets, rather than those that merely shifted wealth from Main Street to Wall Street.

Admittedly, this would be a lot for the American people to take in. Most people have no idea how the money system works. The credit dollar is all they know. And they still have faith that the big heads at the Fed know what they are doing.

The newspapers and pundits would howl in alarm. Respectable economists would choke on their indignation. Lynch mobs would form. They would call our program “radical” and “irresponsible,” unaware that today’s system is the most radical, experimental, and irresponsible in history.

Our proposals would take the country back to a traditional and sensible money system. People would decide for themselves what kind of money they wanted to use… whether to save it… or spend it… and what price to put on it if they wanted to lend it out.

Would it work?

We don’t know, but we’d like to see someone give it a try.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for Bonner and Partners