2016年11月16日星期三

Soros More Than Doubles Stake in Barrick Gold as Shares Drop


After selling most of his stock in Barrick Gold Corp. in the second quarter, billionaire investor George Soros more than doubled his remaining holding in the mining company.

Soros Fund Management LLC bought 1.78 million Barrick shares in the third quarter, taking total holdings to 2.85 million, according to a regulatory filing. The fund rebuilt its stake in Barrick, one of the world’s two largest gold producers, after selling 94 percent of its holdings in the second quarter to cash in on the stock’s best first-half performance ever.

The billionaire investor’s purchase comes after Barrick began steps to cut costs and sell assets to lower its debt. The Toronto-based producer reported third-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ estimates even as gold prices posted their first quarterly decline this year.

Barrick shares have fallen to a seven-month low of C$19.86 as haven demand for gold wanes amid prospects of rising U.S. interest rates. Bullion has slipped more than 7 percent since June, in part because of speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to increase infrastructure spending will widen the deficit and boost yields, hurting the appeal of non-interest bearing gold.

“The Barrick train keeps chugging as the company’s continual focus on lowering the cost per ounce of gold produced is paying off, positioning it well for the long term,”  Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kenneth Hoffman and Sean Gilmartin said in an Oct. 27 report.

Barrick has lowered its net debt to below $6 billion for the first time since 2011, according to the BI note.

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30年期美債殖利率直逼3%!美房貸利率連動狂飆


《Zerohedge》報導,隨著美國聯準會 (Fed) 十二月份利率決策會議日漸接近,目前市場廣泛預估 Fed 將於十二月份出手升息,再加上川普 (Donald Trump) 當選後可望擴大美國的財政支出、擴建基礎建設,兩大因素雙雙刺激美債殖利率曲線斜率進一步趨陡。

如上圖所示,週一 (14 日) 三十年期美債殖利率已飆升至 2.99%,創下了今年以來的新高水平,累計本月至今三十年期美債殖利率漲幅已高達了 15.89%,顯示長天期債市正經歷一場慘烈崩盤。

進一步從美債殖利率曲線來作觀察,綠線為週一 (14 日) 美債殖利率曲線,藍線為本月月初 11 月 1 日的美債殖利率曲線,從下圖可以清晰看到,本波美債市場的「大逃殺」除了一年期以下的美國公債以外,其餘二年期、三年期、五年期、十年期、三十年期等美債市場,皆嚴重地慘遭血洗。

美債殖利率曲線 綠:本月1日之走勢 藍:本月14日之走勢 圖片來源:U.S. Department of the Treasury 
美債殖利率曲線 綠:本月 1 日之走勢 藍:本月 14 日之走勢 圖片來源:U.S. Department of the Treasury 

一些美國投資人或許認為,沒有持有任何的美債部位,就不會產生任何衝擊和損失,但這樣的想法,很可能是大錯特錯。

由於三十年期這樣的長年期債券殖利率,銀行業通常拿來與房貸利率來作掛鉤,《CNBC》報導,目前美國三十年期房貸利率,已隨著三十年期美債殖利率出現同步飆漲,漲幅更是遠遠超出了此前預估。

據 Mortgage News Daily 報告顯示,目前美國三十年期房貸利率已飆升至 4%,原先該單位預測,4% 之房貸利率水平可能要到 2017 年中旬才能見到,到目前尚未邁入 2017 年,美國三十年期房貸利率就已飆升至此一水平,令市場為之一震。

美國房屋貸款銀行家協會 (Mortgage Bankers Association) 經濟學家表示,在美債殖利率狂飆的市況之下,估計房貸利率的上漲力道,將會比原先預期的還要來得更快、更猛。