2017年9月5日星期二

韓鮮核試 韓國人首次搶購白銀 原因竟是入場費低


遇上重大危機,一般人都會想到搶購求生用品,在商品市場則搶購金磚。但今次朝鮮在星期日核試引起韓國人恐慌,部份韓國人並不是搶金條,而是搶銀條。

核試翌日上午 白銀銷量是平日10倍

韓聯社報道,韓國黃金交易所表示,朝鮮核試翌日(9月4日)上午出售了194條1公斤的銀條,銷售是平均每日銷量的10倍。雖然金條銷量也較平均增長1倍,當天上午出售了95條10克金條,以及82條100克金條,但增長沒有白銀一般誇張。

售價僅是同重量黃金七十份之一

由於1公斤銀條的售價只是84萬韓圜(約5,817港元),是同樣重量的金條的七十份之一,「入場費低」所以受到民眾青睞。

韓國黃金交易所一名高層表示,通常朝鮮半島出現動盪局面,人們都會搶購金條,但此前從未試過搶購白銀,並預計若果局勢持續升溫,預計金銀條的銷量都會繼續增加。

巧合定係預先安排


呢一張海布...早幾年我去泰國就係為左引証一下..係未真係有掛出來,原來只係在掛在機場往市區高速旁...一張咁大把....呢張都係坐的士時影到...

大棋局:2018新貨幣秩序 1-5







■《經濟學人》30年前嘅預言會否實現? 互聯網圖片



電腦勒索病毒肆虐,令一張30年前嘅照片重現大眾眼前。該照片上面寫住一個年份:2018年。

bitcoin,勒索病毒指定嘅贖金貨幣。因著其對身份之保密性,現時部份地下交易都會用上,真係知

識型經濟大環境下,黑社會都要進修學電腦。今年2月最後一個交易日,一個bitcoin價格正式超過一盎士黃金。一個大眾將信將疑、本質先於存在嘅虛疑貨幣,一個人類用咗幾千年、存在先於本質嘅實體貨幣,邊一個先係我哋將來嘅交易形態?

《經濟學人》,一本知識份子推崇嘅經濟雜誌。1988年1月9日,雜誌封面畫咗隻鳳凰,心口掛住一枚老蓮咁大嘅貨幣,腳下踐踏多國銀紙,大題《Get ready for a world currency》。鳳凰心口嗰枚貨幣寫住一個年份,就係2018年。

雜誌內文提及將來會出現新貨幣秩序,或由IMF的SDR開始。數字貨幣未出現前,唔少人認為該封面其實暗示黃金皇者回歸。理由係自71年布雷頓森林體系瓦解後美元不斷超發,最終會再次面對特里芬難題,所以美元做莊嘅貨幣體系不能持久,取而代之的將會係金本位。包括聯儲局前主席格林斯潘曾警告,只有回歸黃金,先可以制止全球央行繼續靠印銀紙呢種金融鴉片上電,制止無止境嘅債務擴張。

但自bitcoin出現後,數字貨幣一度令人眼前一亮。同任何新出現的事物一樣,一開始都係被質疑同揶揄。可是經過多年實驗,德國率先於2013年認可bitcoin合法地位,日本今年4月亦承認其支付手段合法,中國則更表明央行會推出自製嘅數字貨幣。

大美元台戲必須唱落去,因為美元一弱,就會有各方勢力倡議用SDR、黃金甚至數字貨幣取代美元。如無意外,聯儲局年末將會縮表,一場虛實之爭即將到來。《經濟學人》嘅預言會否實現?(待續)


大棋局:2018新貨幣秩序(二)
 


■金本位時代以黃金為錨,第一次世界大戰後美元取代黃金地位。 資料圖片



世上最爽嘅事就係掌有印銀紙權力。印銀紙有內外之別,例如共產黨掌中國印銀紙權力,但國際貨幣體系上冇話事權。用一個通俗講法,政府濫發貨幣在國內威到盡,可以沒收平民財

產,但貨幣出到國外只是一張廁紙,津巴布韋即如此。所以要坐莊,就坐世界之莊。

過去世界貨幣莊家之位係硬通貨,即黃金、白銀。第一次世界大戰後全球陷入大混亂,在布雷頓森林協定下美元取代黃金地位,直到今日。要明白美元體系,要先明白「錨」嘅概念。金本位時代以黃金為錨,自國貨幣含金量高就升值,國與國之間按此再釐定交叉滙率。布雷頓森林體系時期美元以黃金為錨,然後各國再以美元為錨。布雷頓森林體系瓦解後美元背後已無黃金,全球貨幣仍以美元為錨,中國外滙儲備世界第一,就係要表達畀人聽人民幣唔係廁紙。

但以某一國貨幣作錨有個問題,就係所謂的特里芬難題。例如美元體系,全世界都用美元作儲備貨幣,於是美國只有長期貿易赤字先可以輸出足夠貨幣。長期赤字會導致貨幣貶值,阿哥,邊個會揸住日日貶值嘅銀紙?最終引發各國拋棄美元,單一國貨幣做莊之體系不能長久。

美元長期貶值各國心中有數,中國就趁金融海嘯時提過要提升SDR貨幣地位。然而,每當美元信心危機浮現時,美元就會突然轉強。因此所謂的剪羊毛周期不斷重演,特里芬難題一次次被掩蓋。凡事都有「量」嘅問題,美元過去冇問題,不代表將來冇問題,因問題積存嘅量越來越驚人,尤其經歷QE時期。

這邊廂,《經濟學人》竟然30年前預告新貨幣秩序會於2018年出現,並由SDR開始;那邊廂,美國正準備縮表,維持各國對美元信心以冀長玩長有。同時德國靜靜雞運回存於美國的黃金,bitcoin逐漸左右地下經濟秩序。一場新貨幣秩序較勁即將開始。(待續)


大棋局:2018新貨幣秩序(三) 




■bitcoin只係一個試驗品,中國已表明會搶先由央行發行數字貨幣。 資料圖片



海耶克晚年最後一本經濟學著作,叫做《貨幣的非國家化》(Denationalisation of Money)。用一句話概括此書重心,就係印銀紙唔一定要

由央行壟斷。既然推崇自由嘅經濟學家們認為有競爭最好,那貨幣發行都應該有競爭先啱。查實世界上有個地方某程度實踐咗上說,就係香港。香港由三家商業銀行發行貨幣,而非由央行壟斷,只不過香港嘅貨幣發行制度欠缺海耶克提倡的競爭性。

叫央行放棄貨幣壟斷,同叫獨裁國家實行民主制一樣,梗係睬你都儍。我哋現行貨幣體系嘅轉捩點,就發生喺海耶克同凱恩斯之爭時期。海耶克受法國經濟學家Jean-Baptiste Say影響,信奉中立貨幣說,認為貨幣失去中立性就會引發經濟危機,故晚年有貨幣非國家化想法。凱恩斯完全相反,認為貨幣唔單止唔應該中立,更應擺到明有搞作,亦即用政治權力玩貨幣。結果凱恩斯打開了貨幣世界的潘朵拉盒子,將貨幣政策放出嚟,往後80年央行以貨幣政策左右經濟秩序被視為理所當然,並一發不可收拾。

看似被塵封的貨幣非國家化理論近年再受關注,因為出現咗一個新事物:數字貨幣。當權者最驟忌數字貨幣的去中心化,每個人只要有相應電腦設備就可以「挖礦」,等同發行貨幣。貨幣在用家之間流轉,不經政府監管、結算。耶倫做聯儲局副主席時已明白地講,新型網路貨幣令銀行家不安,可能擾亂金融秩序。

以最紅嘅bitcoin為例,一粒已比一盎斯黃金貴近一倍。或說bitcoin有排升,因佢係通縮貨幣,最終只能產出2,100萬粒。但今日有bitcoin,聽日可以有beachcoin。bitcoin只係一個試驗品,中國已表明會搶先由央行發行數字貨幣。中國要人民幣國際化,力推SDR,自己發行數字貨幣,用意十分明顯,就係要衝擊美元體系秩序。

(待續)

大棋局:2018新貨幣秩序(四)


■黃金被公認為貨幣中的皇者,任由朝代更迭,黃金永遠不會消失。 資料圖片





黃金,公認為貨幣中的皇者。原因好簡單,法定貨幣壽命取決於朝代更迭,共產黨可以滅亡,共和黨可以執笠,黃金卻唔會消失。無論將黃金拎去208年諸葛亮出山之日,1963

年毛澤東話「一萬年太久,只爭朝夕」之時,還是2047年後唔知點樣嘅香港,照樣有價。

但黃金有一個矛盾處,因其認受性太高,無事好地地,一有風吹草動就會被囤積,直至金本位制度無法運作。故黃金雖為貨幣中的皇者,黃金無法再作為貨幣。

今日我哋嘅貨幣體系不再以黃金為錨,各國貨幣之間滙率與含金量無關。不過將全球央行黃金儲備數據拎嚟睇會發現,15大黃金儲備國(或機構)中,歐美佔8個,若計埋IMF則9個,且數量遠遠拋離其他國家。15大歐美黃金儲備國除瑞士外,黃金分別佔該國外滙儲備55至75%(詳表見網上版)。一方面,不斷有經濟學說同你講黃金冇用,而且講到似層層;另一方面,貨幣世界最高權力掌舵人行動上收埋黃金,並揸到實一實。

《經濟學人》30年前預告2018年會有新貨幣秩序來襲,咁啱今年發生一件事。二戰前德國將大部份黃金儲備送出國托管,到2013年德國突然話要將海外黃金拎番,期限係2020年前運回一半。德國央行今年公佈,截止2016年底已運回583噸黃金,法蘭克福央行總部黃金儲備增至1,619噸,佔其黃金總儲備47.9%。即係話,如無意外,德國央行今年就會提前達標,將一半黃金拎返老家。

QE係一場人類史上最大規模的貨幣實驗,其成敗並未知道。一旦經濟再次活躍,央行收水太慢會引嚟惡性通脹反噬,太急則會導致通縮。全球54萬億美元可交易債券中,央行已揸三分一。央行未完成收水前若出現經濟危機,將無法再次以QE救市。在兩手準備情勢下,哪國先爭奪制高點,那國就係下一代世界貨幣大莊家。

(待續)


2018新貨幣秩序-五

 

 

不知道還有多少人記得Bancor和Unita。一場謀劃世界貨幣新秩序的會議發生於1944年,44個國家代表齊集美國新罕布夏州布雷頓森林,英美兩國當時正為誰主導世界爭霸。代表英國出場嘅係殿堂級經濟學大師凱恩斯,佢提倡國際貿易結算用一種新記帳單位Bancor;代表美國嘅只係財政部長助理懷特,佢動議各國用一種新貨幣單位Unita。

結果經濟學大師輸了,各國協議最後雖無採用Uinta,但運用了其原理,即美元和黃金掛鈎,他國貨幣再同美元掛鈎。任何人拎住35美元可以向美國兌一盎士黃金,從此美元又叫做美金。

凱恩斯雖然輸咗,但其構想並無被遺忘,Bancor其實即SDR前身。美元從英鎊手上接掌世界貨幣大莊家之位後,於60年代開始面對特里芬難題。

美國嚴重貿易赤字,各國都驚揸住35美元將來可否兌一盎士黃金?都係沽美元,揸黃金先。SDR即在美元危機背景下誕生,或說,是Bancor重生。可是70年代出現一個叫基辛格嘅猶太人,諗到條橋不單化解美元危機,更將美元一夜間再次扭轉為全球貨幣體系的定海神針,就係要中東國家賣油只收美元。全世界都要買油,所以全世界都要美元。石油美元體系確立,令SDR曇花一現無用武之地。

SDR現時由五大權重貨幣組成,分別係美元、歐元、人民幣、日圓、英鎊。所以中國重提並力推SDR就係要衝擊美元體系,由一個大佬坐莊局面,改變為幾個叔父同檯食飯。過去每當有國家想衝擊美元體系,例如賣石油想唔用美元結算,唔知點解都冇好下場。中國人比較蠱惑,就話大家拍住上有錢齊齊搵。

法定貨幣壽命取決於朝代更迭,假如人民幣世界通行,全球央行揸到一手都係時,冇一個國家會希望共產黨出事。明乎此自然知道,人民幣會否停止國際化,係一件唔需要討論嘅事。

Mr. Tregunter

China Readies Yuan-Priced Crude Oil Benchmark Backed By Gold


China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold

Yuan-denominated contract will let exporters circumvent US dollar
DAMON EVANS, Contributing writer


Yuan-denominated gold futures have been traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange since April 2016 as part of the country's effort to reduce the pricing power of the U.S. dollar. © Imaginechina/AP Images



DENPASAR, Indonesia -- China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry.
The contract could become the most important Asia-based crude oil benchmark, given that China is the world's biggest oil importer. Crude oil is usually priced in relation to Brent or West Texas Intermediate futures, both denominated in U.S. dollars.
China's move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
"The rules of the global oil game may begin to change enormously," said Luke Gromen, founder of U.S.-based macroeconomic research company FFTT.

The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has started to train potential users and is carrying out systems tests following substantial preparations in June and July. This will be China's first commodities futures contract open to foreign companies such as investment funds, trading houses and petroleum companies.

Most of China's crude imports, which averaged around 7.6 million barrels a day in 2016, are bought on long-term contracts between China's major oil companies and foreign national oil companies. Deals also take place between Chinese majors and independent Chinese refiners, and between foreign oil majors and global trading companies.

Alan Bannister, Asia director of S&P Global Platts, an energy information provider, said that the active involvement of Chinese independent refiners over the last few years "has created a more diverse marketplace of participants domestically in China, creating an environment in which a crude futures contract is more likely to succeed."

China has long wanted to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the commodities markets. Yuan-denominated gold futures have been traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange since April 2016, and the exchange is planning to launch the product in Budapest later this year.

Yuan-denominated gold contracts were also launched in Hong Kong in July -- after two unsuccessful earlier attempts -- as China seeks to internationalize its currency. The contracts have been moderately successful.

The existence of yuan-backed oil and gold futures means that users will have the option of being paid in physical gold, said Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney, a gold-based financial services company based in Toronto. "It is a mechanism which is likely to appeal to oil producers that prefer to avoid using dollars, and are not ready to accept that being paid in yuan for oil sales to China is a good idea either," Macleod said.

Yuan-denominated gold contracts have significant implications, especially for countries like Russia and Iran, Qatar and Venezuela, said Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive of Gavekal Research, a Hong Kong-based financial research company.
These countries would be less vulnerable to Washington's use of the dollar as a "soft weapon," if they should fall foul of U.S. foreign policy, he said. "By creating a gold contract settled in renminbi [an alternative name for the yuan], Russia may now sell oil to China for renminbi, then take whatever excess currency it earns to buy gold in Hong Kong. As a result, Russia does not have to buy Chinese assets or switch the proceeds into dollars," said Gave.
Grant Williams, an adviser to Vulpes Investment Management, a Singapore-based hedge fund sponsor, said he expects most oil producers to be happy to exchange their oil reserves for gold. "It's a transfer of holding their assets in black liquid to yellow metal. It's a strategic move swapping oil for gold, rather than for U.S. Treasuries, which can be printed out of thin air," he said.
Market share
China has been indicating to producers that those happy to sell to them in yuan will benefit from more business. Producers that will not sell to China in yuan will lose market share.
Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally, is a case in point. China proposed pricing oil in yuan to Saudi Arabia in late July, according to Chinese media. It is unclear if Saudi Arabia will yield to its biggest customer, but Beijing has been reducing Saudi Arabia's share of its total imports, which fell from 25% in 2008 to 15% in 2016.
Chinese oil imports rose 13.8% year-on-year during the first half of 2017, but supplies from Saudi Arabia inched up just 1% year-on-year. Over the same timeframe, Russian oil shipments jumped 11%, making Russia China's top supplier. Angola, which made the yuan its second legal currency in 2015, leapfrogged Saudi Arabia into second spot with an increase of 22% in oil exports to China in the same period.
If Saudi Arabia accepts yuan settlement for oil, Gave said, "this would go down like a lead balloon in Washington, where the U.S. Treasury would see this as a threat to the dollar's hegemony... and it is unlikely the U.S. would continue to approve modern weapon sales to Saudi and the embedded protection of the House of Saud [the kingdom's ruling family] that comes with them."
The alternative for Saudi Arabia is equally unappetizing. "Getting boxed out of the Chinese market will increasingly mean having to dump excess oil inventories on the global stage, thereby ensuring a sustained low price for oil," said Gave.
But the kingdom is finding other ways to get in with China. On Aug. 24, Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a conference in Jeddah that the government was looking at the possibility of issuing a yuan-denominated bond. Saudi Arabia and China have also agreed to establish a $20 billion joint investment fund.
Furthermore, the two countries could cement their relationship if China were to take a cornerstone investment in the planned initial public offering of a 5% state in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company. The IPO is expected to be the largest ever, although details on the listing venue and valuation are yet scant.
If China were to buy into Saudi Aramco the pricing of Saudi oil could shift from U.S. dollars to yuan, said Macleod. Crucially, "if China can tie in Aramco, with Russia, Iran et al, she will have a degree of influence over nearly 40% of global production, and will be able to progress her desire to exclude dollars for yuan," he said.
"What is interesting is that China's leadership originally planned to clean up the markets next year, but brought it forward to this year. One interpretation of that change is that they have brought forward the day when they pay for oil in yuan," said Simon Hunt, a strategic adviser to international investors on the Chinese economy and geopolitics.
China is also making efforts to set other commodity benchmarks, such as gas and copper, as Beijing seeks to transform the yuan into the natural trading currency for Asia and emerging markets.
Yuan oil futures are expected to attract interest from investors and funds, while state-backed oil majors, such as PetroChina and China Petroleum & Chemical (Sinopec) will provide liquidity to ensure trade. Locally registered entities of JPMorgan, a U.S. bank, and UBS, a Swiss bank, are among the first to have gained approval to trade the contract. But it is understood that the market will be also open to retail investors.



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